ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[Bocadude85]

18Z NAVGEM shifts west. Has a NW heading instead of a NE heading once in the Bahamas

[psyclone]

I just hope it doesn't keep correcting and then settle on a Tampaish landfall. A storm of this magnitude landfalling there could rival Katrina's damages.

I know this is a remote possibility right now, but the prospect scares the poop out of me. I live north of tampa and am set to have ACL reconstructive surgery on tuesday. That means I won't be able to walk at all when/if this storm comes near a few days later. And I have a wife and 4 pets I'd have to worry about in the event of a major hurricane comes our way. No idea how seriously I need to take this storm and if I need to do any prep on Sunday just in case. I'd be surprised if it moved west all the way to the gulf but... at this point... ?!?

There is absolutely 0 support for a gulfcoast issue at this point. none. And you should expect that to likely remain the case (watch Levi's video for added comfort). As Tolakram said, forget the models and watch the NHC track and wind probability products. As of the latest 5 pm output anyone north and west of a line from key west to cape Canaveral has a 0% chance of TS winds. Not only does our area look good, but we have a comfy margin of safety should the storm come far enough west to impact portions of the east coast. My favorite motto is in full force...no hurry to worry...

[Nimbus]

I just hope it doesn't keep correcting and then settle on a Tampaish landfall. A storm of this magnitude landfalling there could rival Katrina's damages.

I know this is a remote possibility right now, but the prospect scares the poop out of me. I live north of tampa and am set to have ACL reconstructive surgery on tuesday. That means I won't be able to walk at all when/if this storm comes near a few days later. And I have a wife and 4 pets I'd have to worry about in the event of a major hurricane comes our way. No idea how seriously I need to take this storm and if I need to do any prep on Sunday just in case. I'd be surprised if it moved west all the way to the gulf but... at this point... ?!?

Levi talked about this on his podcast a few pages back. There is a tremendous amount of dry air and shear near the Yucatan channel. That would likely undercut the circulation and leave Mathew a lot weaker in the unlikely event the track continued toward the gulf. By Monday the track should be a lot clearer. Current forecast track would likely cause a lot of power outages on the east coast of Florida from line slap kicking the transformers off line. Most of those usually can be reset in a few hours. I'm just frightened for Jamaica, Cuba and western Hispaniola odds are high that there will be devastation in the islands and they don't have a very good recovery infrastructure.

[chaser1]

:uarrow: So, a variable "average" solution that should not be discounted yet one which nonetheless ignores the basis for the divergent solution that the individual EURO members contribute; each weighted uniquely for those parameters that define each of them, right?

please write out an equation for that, lol

Are YOU kidding?!
An equation? I couldn't even tell you what the hell I said!

[adam0983]

How far west do you think Hurricane Matthew gets before the turn will be the keys for the models. Getting too close for comfort here in south Florida.

[gatorcane]

18Z NAVGEM shifts west. Has a NW heading instead of a NE heading once in the Bahamas

Yep shows a pretty distinct NW turn then back to N that it was not showing in any run so far. The model is starting to detect a stronger ridge like the GFS. The NAVGEM has an extremely intense system moving through the Bahamas

[meriland23]

I have a very good question about intensity. What are the chances Matthew will gradually weaken consistently after that north turn/ pass over Cuba.. making it a low cat 2, cat 1 or remnants by the time (and if) it hits the US? I question this because almost all of the models indicate the weakening will be short lived before strengthening again while the NHC thinks it'll die off when it weakens.

[alienstorm]

One thing to note is the orientation of the storm (cloud pattern) being ENE to WSW, this tells me that we are still awhile away from starting the turn. Would not be surprise if it got to 75W or past it before the turn starts.

[gatorcane]

Thing that has me a bit concerned here in SE FL about the GFS trend is the gradual slowing out of the Caribbean trend. It is still faster than the ECMWF by a good amount. If the next run is even slower, that NW turn could happen a little sooner and get this even closer to the SE Florida coastline.

[stormreader]

One thing to note is the orientation of the storm (cloud pattern) being ENE to WSW, this tells me that we are still awhile away from starting the turn. Would not be surprise if it got to 75W or past it before the turn starts.

And I'm not assuming a true N after the turn. Will see if it's not NNW.

[SouthFLTropics]

Thing that has me somewhat concerned here in SE FL about the GFS trend is the gradual slowing out of the Caribbean trend. It is still faster than the ECMWF by a good amount. If the next run is even slower, that NW turn could happen a little sooner and get this even closer to the SE Florida coastline.

Agreed, and in regards to many of the GFS ensemble members...while none of the 18z show an actual landfall in Florida, many have it just off the coast. That would be close enough to get hurricane winds onshore and enact maximum hurricane preps on the East Coast.

[wxman57]

I have a very good question about intensity. What are the chances Matthew will gradually weaken consistently after that north turn/ pass over Cuba.. making it a low cat 2, cat 1 or remnants by the time (and if) it hits the US? I question this because almost all of the models indicate the weakening will be short lived before strengthening again while the NHC thinks it'll die off when it weakens.

Interaction with land will have 2 major impacts on Matthew. First, the core will be severely disrupted, resulting in a significant drop in intensity. Second, the wind field will expand considerably, perhaps to twice the size south of Cuba. After the wind field expansion it may take a while to regain its core and intensify. Think Ike in 2008. It never could get its core going before landfall after passing over Cuba twice. It was getting pretty close, though, as it moved over us.

I looked at the 12Z EC ensembles and it appears that the operational run is an outlier. Most of the 50 ensemble members take Matthew out to sea to the northeast. I don't believe the 12Z EC, but I do think that Matthew may pass close enough to the Carolinas to brush them with TS winds, particularly since its wind field will be much larger by then.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

What's highly concerning to me is that the ECMWF/GFS/HWRF/UKMET don't show Matthew at peak now, rather they show Matthew peaking as it makes landfall in Cuba or in the Bahamas.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

I have a very good question about intensity. What are the chances Matthew will gradually weaken consistently after that north turn/ pass over Cuba.. making it a low cat 2, cat 1 or remnants by the time (and if) it hits the US? I question this because almost all of the models indicate the weakening will be short lived before strengthening again while the NHC thinks it'll die off when it weakens.

Interaction with land will have 2 major impacts on Matthew. First, the core will be severely disrupted, resulting in a significant drop in intensity. Second, the wind field will expand considerably, perhaps to twice the size south of Cuba. After the wind field expansion it may take a while to regain its core and intensify. Think Ike in 2008. It never could get its core going before landfall after passing over Cuba twice. It was getting pretty close, though, as it moved over us.

I looked at the 12Z EC ensembles and it appears that the operational run is an outlier. Most of the 50 ensemble members take Matthew out to sea to the northeast. I don't believe the 12Z EC, but I do think that Matthew may pass close enough to the Carolinas to brush them with TS winds, particularly since its wind field will be much larger by then.

Don't believe the very consistent GFS, huh?

[psyclone]

That likely large size windfield north of the Bahamas means this storm is a significant coastal hazard even if it stays offshore on an out to sea heading. Lots of water action and beach erosion is a good possibility.

[SouthFLTropics]

What's highly concerning to me is that the ECMWF/GFS/HWRF/UKMET don't show Matthew at peak now, rather they show Matthew peaking as it makes landfall in Cuba or in the Bahamas.

I think you just made an excellent point though that should be somewhat comforting...models can and will be wrong. They didn't show this strength whereas they could be just as wrong with the high strength in the Bahamas. It could end up weaker, especially after impacting Cuba.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

What's highly concerning to me is that the ECMWF/GFS/HWRF/UKMET don't show Matthew at peak now, rather they show Matthew peaking as it makes landfall in Cuba or in the Bahamas.

The science of intensity forecasting is, regrettably, rather poor it lags significantly behind track forecasting. Any expert will tell you such.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

What's highly concerning to me is that the ECMWF/GFS/HWRF/UKMET don't show Matthew at peak now, rather they show Matthew peaking as it makes landfall in Cuba or in the Bahamas.

I think you just made an excellent point though that should be somewhat comforting...models can and will be wrong. They didn't show this strength whereas they could be just as wrong with the high strength in the Bahamas. It could end up weaker, especially after impacting Cuba.

I agree, however unfortunately I don't feel that'll be the case with much higher TCHP and a more favorable upper level environment. However, I could see dry air entrainment preventing it somewhat too.

[DESTRUCTION5]

I have a very good question about intensity. What are the chances Matthew will gradually weaken consistently after that north turn/ pass over Cuba.. making it a low cat 2, cat 1 or remnants by the time (and if) it hits the US? I question this because almost all of the models indicate the weakening will be short lived before strengthening again while the NHC thinks it'll die off when it weakens.

Interaction with land will have 2 major impacts on Matthew. First, the core will be severely disrupted, resulting in a significant drop in intensity. Second, the wind field will expand considerably, perhaps to twice the size south of Cuba. After the wind field expansion it may take a while to regain its core and intensify. Think Ike in 2008. It never could get its core going before landfall after passing over Cuba twice. It was getting pretty close, though, as it moved over us.

I looked at the 12Z EC ensembles and it appears that the operational run is an outlier. Most of the 50 ensemble members take Matthew out to sea to the northeast. I don't believe the 12Z EC, but I do think that Matthew may pass close enough to the Carolinas to brush them with TS winds, particularly since its wind field will be much larger by then.

I see your not buying the Euro...But I don't see you commenting on the GFS getting closer in yet again?

[p1nheadlarry]

:uarrow: So, a variable "average" solution that should not be discounted yet one which nonetheless ignores the basis for the divergent solution that the individual EURO members contribute; each weighted uniquely for those parameters that define each of them, right?

please write out an equation for that, lol

Are YOU kidding?!
An equation? I couldn't even tell you what the hell I said!

Even the analytically solvable (is that a word?) N-S equations are long, the computation that goes into these global models are massive, namely because you have to write derivatives in the coding differently depending on what you're looking at and the variables at hand may behave differently in other terms. Not to mention the variable assigning and looping that goes on. That's why we have supercomputers!