ATL: MATTHEW - Models

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Bocadude85
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#3641 Postby Bocadude85 » Fri Sep 30, 2016 7:07 pm

18Z NAVGEM shifts west. Has a NW heading instead of a NE heading once in the Bahamas
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#3642 Postby psyclone » Fri Sep 30, 2016 7:12 pm

Cuda wrote:
OntarioEggplant wrote:I just hope it doesn't keep correcting and then settle on a Tampaish landfall. A storm of this magnitude landfalling there could rival Katrina's damages.



I know this is a remote possibility right now, but the prospect scares the poop out of me. I live north of tampa and am set to have ACL reconstructive surgery on tuesday. That means I won't be able to walk at all when/if this storm comes near a few days later. And I have a wife and 4 pets I'd have to worry about in the event of a major hurricane comes our way. No idea how seriously I need to take this storm and if I need to do any prep on Sunday just in case. I'd be surprised if it moved west all the way to the gulf but... at this point... ?!?


There is absolutely 0 support for a gulfcoast issue at this point. none. And you should expect that to likely remain the case (watch Levi's video for added comfort). As Tolakram said, forget the models and watch the NHC track and wind probability products. As of the latest 5 pm output anyone north and west of a line from key west to cape Canaveral has a 0% chance of TS winds. Not only does our area look good, but we have a comfy margin of safety should the storm come far enough west to impact portions of the east coast. My favorite motto is in full force...no hurry to worry...
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#3643 Postby Nimbus » Fri Sep 30, 2016 7:20 pm

Cuda wrote:
OntarioEggplant wrote:I just hope it doesn't keep correcting and then settle on a Tampaish landfall. A storm of this magnitude landfalling there could rival Katrina's damages.



I know this is a remote possibility right now, but the prospect scares the poop out of me. I live north of tampa and am set to have ACL reconstructive surgery on tuesday. That means I won't be able to walk at all when/if this storm comes near a few days later. And I have a wife and 4 pets I'd have to worry about in the event of a major hurricane comes our way. No idea how seriously I need to take this storm and if I need to do any prep on Sunday just in case. I'd be surprised if it moved west all the way to the gulf but... at this point... ?!?


Levi talked about this on his podcast a few pages back. There is a tremendous amount of dry air and shear near the Yucatan channel. That would likely undercut the circulation and leave Mathew a lot weaker in the unlikely event the track continued toward the gulf. By Monday the track should be a lot clearer. Current forecast track would likely cause a lot of power outages on the east coast of Florida from line slap kicking the transformers off line. Most of those usually can be reset in a few hours. I'm just frightened for Jamaica, Cuba and western Hispaniola odds are high that there will be devastation in the islands and they don't have a very good recovery infrastructure.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#3644 Postby chaser1 » Fri Sep 30, 2016 7:21 pm

jlauderdal wrote:
chaser1 wrote::uarrow: So, a variable "average" solution that should not be discounted yet one which nonetheless ignores the basis for the divergent solution that the individual EURO members contribute; each weighted uniquely for those parameters that define each of them, right?

please write out an equation for that, lol


Are YOU kidding?! :think:
An equation? I couldn't even tell you what the hell I said! :lol:
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#3645 Postby adam0983 » Fri Sep 30, 2016 7:27 pm

How far west do you think Hurricane Matthew gets before the turn will be the keys for the models. Getting too close for comfort here in south Florida.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#3646 Postby gatorcane » Fri Sep 30, 2016 7:28 pm

Bocadude85 wrote:18Z NAVGEM shifts west. Has a NW heading instead of a NE heading once in the Bahamas


Yep shows a pretty distinct NW turn then back to N that it was not showing in any run so far. The model is starting to detect a stronger ridge like the GFS. The NAVGEM has an extremely intense system moving through the Bahamas
Last edited by gatorcane on Fri Sep 30, 2016 7:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#3647 Postby meriland23 » Fri Sep 30, 2016 7:30 pm

I have a very good question about intensity. What are the chances Matthew will gradually weaken consistently after that north turn/ pass over Cuba.. making it a low cat 2, cat 1 or remnants by the time (and if) it hits the US? I question this because almost all of the models indicate the weakening will be short lived before strengthening again while the NHC thinks it'll die off when it weakens.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#3648 Postby alienstorm » Fri Sep 30, 2016 7:31 pm

One thing to note is the orientation of the storm (cloud pattern) being ENE to WSW, this tells me that we are still awhile away from starting the turn. Would not be surprise if it got to 75W or past it before the turn starts.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#3649 Postby gatorcane » Fri Sep 30, 2016 7:40 pm

Thing that has me a bit concerned here in SE FL about the GFS trend is the gradual slowing out of the Caribbean trend. It is still faster than the ECMWF by a good amount. If the next run is even slower, that NW turn could happen a little sooner and get this even closer to the SE Florida coastline.
Last edited by gatorcane on Fri Sep 30, 2016 7:42 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#3650 Postby stormreader » Fri Sep 30, 2016 7:41 pm

alienstorm wrote:One thing to note is the orientation of the storm (cloud pattern) being ENE to WSW, this tells me that we are still awhile away from starting the turn. Would not be surprise if it got to 75W or past it before the turn starts.

And I'm not assuming a true N after the turn. Will see if it's not NNW.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#3651 Postby SouthFLTropics » Fri Sep 30, 2016 7:44 pm

gatorcane wrote:Thing that has me somewhat concerned here in SE FL about the GFS trend is the gradual slowing out of the Caribbean trend. It is still faster than the ECMWF by a good amount. If the next run is even slower, that NW turn could happen a little sooner and get this even closer to the SE Florida coastline.


Agreed, and in regards to many of the GFS ensemble members...while none of the 18z show an actual landfall in Florida, many have it just off the coast. That would be close enough to get hurricane winds onshore and enact maximum hurricane preps on the East Coast.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#3652 Postby wxman57 » Fri Sep 30, 2016 7:52 pm

meriland23 wrote:I have a very good question about intensity. What are the chances Matthew will gradually weaken consistently after that north turn/ pass over Cuba.. making it a low cat 2, cat 1 or remnants by the time (and if) it hits the US? I question this because almost all of the models indicate the weakening will be short lived before strengthening again while the NHC thinks it'll die off when it weakens.


Interaction with land will have 2 major impacts on Matthew. First, the core will be severely disrupted, resulting in a significant drop in intensity. Second, the wind field will expand considerably, perhaps to twice the size south of Cuba. After the wind field expansion it may take a while to regain its core and intensify. Think Ike in 2008. It never could get its core going before landfall after passing over Cuba twice. It was getting pretty close, though, as it moved over us.

I looked at the 12Z EC ensembles and it appears that the operational run is an outlier. Most of the 50 ensemble members take Matthew out to sea to the northeast. I don't believe the 12Z EC, but I do think that Matthew may pass close enough to the Carolinas to brush them with TS winds, particularly since its wind field will be much larger by then.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#3653 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Fri Sep 30, 2016 7:58 pm

What's highly concerning to me is that the ECMWF/GFS/HWRF/UKMET don't show Matthew at peak now, rather they show Matthew peaking as it makes landfall in Cuba or in the Bahamas.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#3654 Postby CalmBeforeStorm » Fri Sep 30, 2016 7:59 pm

wxman57 wrote:
meriland23 wrote:I have a very good question about intensity. What are the chances Matthew will gradually weaken consistently after that north turn/ pass over Cuba.. making it a low cat 2, cat 1 or remnants by the time (and if) it hits the US? I question this because almost all of the models indicate the weakening will be short lived before strengthening again while the NHC thinks it'll die off when it weakens.


Interaction with land will have 2 major impacts on Matthew. First, the core will be severely disrupted, resulting in a significant drop in intensity. Second, the wind field will expand considerably, perhaps to twice the size south of Cuba. After the wind field expansion it may take a while to regain its core and intensify. Think Ike in 2008. It never could get its core going before landfall after passing over Cuba twice. It was getting pretty close, though, as it moved over us.

I looked at the 12Z EC ensembles and it appears that the operational run is an outlier. Most of the 50 ensemble members take Matthew out to sea to the northeast. I don't believe the 12Z EC, but I do think that Matthew may pass close enough to the Carolinas to brush them with TS winds, particularly since its wind field will be much larger by then.

Don't believe the very consistent GFS, huh?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#3655 Postby psyclone » Fri Sep 30, 2016 8:00 pm

That likely large size windfield north of the Bahamas means this storm is a significant coastal hazard even if it stays offshore on an out to sea heading. Lots of water action and beach erosion is a good possibility.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#3656 Postby SouthFLTropics » Fri Sep 30, 2016 8:00 pm

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:What's highly concerning to me is that the ECMWF/GFS/HWRF/UKMET don't show Matthew at peak now, rather they show Matthew peaking as it makes landfall in Cuba or in the Bahamas.


I think you just made an excellent point though that should be somewhat comforting...models can and will be wrong. They didn't show this strength whereas they could be just as wrong with the high strength in the Bahamas. It could end up weaker, especially after impacting Cuba.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#3657 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Fri Sep 30, 2016 8:01 pm

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:What's highly concerning to me is that the ECMWF/GFS/HWRF/UKMET don't show Matthew at peak now, rather they show Matthew peaking as it makes landfall in Cuba or in the Bahamas.


The science of intensity forecasting is, regrettably, rather poor it lags significantly behind track forecasting. Any expert will tell you such.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#3658 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Fri Sep 30, 2016 8:02 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:What's highly concerning to me is that the ECMWF/GFS/HWRF/UKMET don't show Matthew at peak now, rather they show Matthew peaking as it makes landfall in Cuba or in the Bahamas.


I think you just made an excellent point though that should be somewhat comforting...models can and will be wrong. They didn't show this strength whereas they could be just as wrong with the high strength in the Bahamas. It could end up weaker, especially after impacting Cuba.


I agree, however unfortunately I don't feel that'll be the case with much higher TCHP and a more favorable upper level environment. However, I could see dry air entrainment preventing it somewhat too.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#3659 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Fri Sep 30, 2016 8:02 pm

wxman57 wrote:
meriland23 wrote:I have a very good question about intensity. What are the chances Matthew will gradually weaken consistently after that north turn/ pass over Cuba.. making it a low cat 2, cat 1 or remnants by the time (and if) it hits the US? I question this because almost all of the models indicate the weakening will be short lived before strengthening again while the NHC thinks it'll die off when it weakens.


Interaction with land will have 2 major impacts on Matthew. First, the core will be severely disrupted, resulting in a significant drop in intensity. Second, the wind field will expand considerably, perhaps to twice the size south of Cuba. After the wind field expansion it may take a while to regain its core and intensify. Think Ike in 2008. It never could get its core going before landfall after passing over Cuba twice. It was getting pretty close, though, as it moved over us.

I looked at the 12Z EC ensembles and it appears that the operational run is an outlier. Most of the 50 ensemble members take Matthew out to sea to the northeast. I don't believe the 12Z EC, but I do think that Matthew may pass close enough to the Carolinas to brush them with TS winds, particularly since its wind field will be much larger by then.


I see your not buying the Euro...But I don't see you commenting on the GFS getting closer in yet again?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#3660 Postby p1nheadlarry » Fri Sep 30, 2016 8:10 pm

chaser1 wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:
chaser1 wrote::uarrow: So, a variable "average" solution that should not be discounted yet one which nonetheless ignores the basis for the divergent solution that the individual EURO members contribute; each weighted uniquely for those parameters that define each of them, right?

please write out an equation for that, lol


Are YOU kidding?! :think:
An equation? I couldn't even tell you what the hell I said! :lol:


Even the analytically solvable (is that a word?) N-S equations are long, the computation that goes into these global models are massive, namely because you have to write derivatives in the coding differently depending on what you're looking at and the variables at hand may behave differently in other terms. Not to mention the variable assigning and looping that goes on. That's why we have supercomputers!
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