ATL: MATTHEW - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
AutoPenalti
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4060
Age: 29
Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm
Location: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4281 Postby AutoPenalti » Sat Oct 01, 2016 4:30 pm

I swear this is like playing the lottery...
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
Top
User avatar
FLpanhandle91
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1035
Age: 34
Joined: Mon Sep 13, 2010 3:50 pm
Location: Fort Walton Beach, FL

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4282 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Sat Oct 01, 2016 4:32 pm

Straight north at 12 hours even though Matthew is clearly cyclonic looping itself and is trending westward as we speak...
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
La Sirena
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 307
Joined: Sun Aug 21, 2016 4:02 pm
Location: Formerly of the Keys, back home in East TN

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4283 Postby La Sirena » Sat Oct 01, 2016 4:36 pm

FLpanhandle91 wrote:Straight north at 12 hours even though Matthew is clearly cyclonic looping itself and is trending westward as we speak...

None of it makes sense!
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


Hurricane Irma,Hurricane Michael, Hurricane Helene
Top
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:
Contact Aric Dunn

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4284 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Oct 01, 2016 4:36 pm

FLpanhandle91 wrote:Straight north at 12 hours even though Matthew is clearly cyclonic looping itself and is trending westward as we speak...


its slower already at 24 hours with a stronger ridge..

slower yet at 30 hours.
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Top
AutoPenalti
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4060
Age: 29
Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm
Location: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4285 Postby AutoPenalti » Sat Oct 01, 2016 4:38 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
FLpanhandle91 wrote:Straight north at 12 hours even though Matthew is clearly cyclonic looping itself and is trending westward as we speak...


its slower already at 24 hours with a stronger ridge..

There's still the trend of a stronger ridge per model run.
1 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
Top
User avatar
Evil Jeremy
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5463
Age: 32
Joined: Mon Apr 10, 2006 2:10 pm
Location: Los Angeles, CA

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4286 Postby Evil Jeremy » Sat Oct 01, 2016 4:38 pm

NAM is noticeably more west at the end of it's 18z run.... for what it's worth. Shows much stronger ridging.
1 likes   
Frances 04 / Jeanne 04 / Katrina 05 / Wilma 05 / Fay 08 / Debby 12 / Andrea 13 / Colin 16 / Hermine 16 / Matthew 16 / Irma 17
Top
User avatar
FLpanhandle91
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1035
Age: 34
Joined: Mon Sep 13, 2010 3:50 pm
Location: Fort Walton Beach, FL

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4287 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Sat Oct 01, 2016 4:40 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
FLpanhandle91 wrote:Straight north at 12 hours even though Matthew is clearly cyclonic looping itself and is trending westward as we speak...


its slower already at 24 hours with a stronger ridge..

slower yet at 30 hours.


Looks like it's having some major issues figuring out what the ridging situation is along the east coast. 24 hours has it stronger than previous runs and at 30 hours there's a weakness directly where the ridge was stronger 6 hours previous?
1 likes   
Top
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:
Contact Aric Dunn

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4288 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Oct 01, 2016 4:43 pm

FLpanhandle91 wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
FLpanhandle91 wrote:Straight north at 12 hours even though Matthew is clearly cyclonic looping itself and is trending westward as we speak...


its slower already at 24 hours with a stronger ridge..

slower yet at 30 hours.


Looks like it's having some major issues figuring out what the ridging situation is along the east coast. 24 hours has it stronger than previous runs and at 30 hours there's a weakness directly where the ridge was stronger 6 hours previous?


yeah, like the NHC said the models continue to struggle with the synoptic setup.. only time will tell.
1 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Top
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:
Contact Aric Dunn

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4289 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Oct 01, 2016 4:44 pm

at 48 hours its about 100 miles sse of the 12z..
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Top
User avatar
PTrackerLA
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5277
Age: 41
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 8:40 pm
Location: Lafayette, LA

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4290 Postby PTrackerLA » Sat Oct 01, 2016 4:47 pm

Looks like a bit east shift and slower so far through 60 hours, not good for Haiti
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
FLpanhandle91
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1035
Age: 34
Joined: Mon Sep 13, 2010 3:50 pm
Location: Fort Walton Beach, FL

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4291 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Sat Oct 01, 2016 4:48 pm

Jamaica spared in this run.

Image
0 likes   
Top
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:
Contact Aric Dunn

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4292 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Oct 01, 2016 4:48 pm

PTrackerLA wrote:Looks like a bit east shift and slower so far through 60 hours, not good for Haiti


looks very similar to the UKMET so far
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Top
User avatar
robbielyn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1299
Joined: Wed May 07, 2003 9:45 am
Location: brooksville, fl

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4293 Postby robbielyn » Sat Oct 01, 2016 4:49 pm

that sse may be Matthew adjusting to the delay of turning. mark sudduth said it was spot on the forecasting of the south dip it took.
0 likes   
Robbielyn McCrary
I know just about enough to sound like I know what I'm talking about sometimes. But for your safety please follow the nhc for truly professional forecasting. :D
Top
AutoPenalti
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4060
Age: 29
Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm
Location: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4294 Postby AutoPenalti » Sat Oct 01, 2016 4:50 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
PTrackerLA wrote:Looks like a bit east shift and slower so far through 60 hours, not good for Haiti


looks very similar to the UKMET so far

It shifts east with a stronger ridge? Something doesn't add up...
1 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.


Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
Top
RickM
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 11
Joined: Fri Sep 23, 2016 1:27 pm

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4295 Postby RickM » Sat Oct 01, 2016 4:50 pm

FLpanhandle91 wrote:Straight north at 12 hours even though Matthew is clearly cyclonic looping itself and is trending westward as we speak...


It was a bit west but last frame looked north-east too me, but what do I know
0 likes   
Top
sphelps8681
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 785
Joined: Thu Aug 16, 2007 5:37 pm
Location: Somewhere over the rainbow

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4296 Postby sphelps8681 » Sat Oct 01, 2016 4:51 pm

When is the North turn suppose to take place or when was it suppose to take place?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
FLpanhandle91
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1035
Age: 34
Joined: Mon Sep 13, 2010 3:50 pm
Location: Fort Walton Beach, FL

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4297 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Sat Oct 01, 2016 4:52 pm

There may some land interference still, but in this run Matthew would spit Hispaniola and Cuba almost unchecked and maintain strength. Not sure how a stronger system coming out of the Caribbean would be affected by ridging differently.
0 likes   
Top
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:
Contact Aric Dunn

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4298 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Oct 01, 2016 4:52 pm

sphelps8681 wrote:When is the North turn suppose to take place or when was it suppose to take place?


should have happened late yesterday.

now who know when it happens.
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Top
User avatar
p1nheadlarry
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 672
Age: 33
Joined: Wed Jan 29, 2014 2:42 pm
Location: SR County FL

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4299 Postby p1nheadlarry » Sat Oct 01, 2016 4:52 pm

Hybridstorm_November2001 wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
NDG wrote:All I know is that the Euro has been very inconsistent so why put so much weight to it?


Because the GFS has been just as bad. It's tough because both of these models are so inconsistent. Outside of 72hrs, it's anyone's guess.


I don't know about that. Overall the long-range GFS, right or wrong, has been rather consistent in wanting to skirt the Outer Banks and then slam Matthew into the area between western Nova Scotia and Long Island.

If you don't believe me, take a gander at the saved images from the past three nights on my weather blog -

http://hybridstorm-weatherblog.blogspot.ca/


To add to this the ECMWF wanted to pull another Joaquin in taking Matthew further southwest and missing the anticipated connection. It has since changed towards the GFS albeit not as fast as the GFS had earlier.
0 likes   
--;->#GoNoles--;->.
Top
User avatar
FLpanhandle91
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1035
Age: 34
Joined: Mon Sep 13, 2010 3:50 pm
Location: Fort Walton Beach, FL

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4300 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Sat Oct 01, 2016 4:53 pm

sphelps8681 wrote:When is the North turn suppose to take place or when was it suppose to take place?


Per this GFS run (not too sure about other models) the north turn should be happening as we speak, but latest satellite imagery is showing it wobbling in place while trending slightly west.
1 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2016”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 10 guests