ATL: MATTHEW - Models

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4281 Postby AutoPenalti » Sat Oct 01, 2016 4:30 pm

I swear this is like playing the lottery...
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4282 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Sat Oct 01, 2016 4:32 pm

Straight north at 12 hours even though Matthew is clearly cyclonic looping itself and is trending westward as we speak...
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4283 Postby La Sirena » Sat Oct 01, 2016 4:36 pm

FLpanhandle91 wrote:Straight north at 12 hours even though Matthew is clearly cyclonic looping itself and is trending westward as we speak...

None of it makes sense!
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4284 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Oct 01, 2016 4:36 pm

FLpanhandle91 wrote:Straight north at 12 hours even though Matthew is clearly cyclonic looping itself and is trending westward as we speak...


its slower already at 24 hours with a stronger ridge..

slower yet at 30 hours.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4285 Postby AutoPenalti » Sat Oct 01, 2016 4:38 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
FLpanhandle91 wrote:Straight north at 12 hours even though Matthew is clearly cyclonic looping itself and is trending westward as we speak...


its slower already at 24 hours with a stronger ridge..

There's still the trend of a stronger ridge per model run.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
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ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4286 Postby Evil Jeremy » Sat Oct 01, 2016 4:38 pm

NAM is noticeably more west at the end of it's 18z run.... for what it's worth. Shows much stronger ridging.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4287 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Sat Oct 01, 2016 4:40 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
FLpanhandle91 wrote:Straight north at 12 hours even though Matthew is clearly cyclonic looping itself and is trending westward as we speak...


its slower already at 24 hours with a stronger ridge..

slower yet at 30 hours.


Looks like it's having some major issues figuring out what the ridging situation is along the east coast. 24 hours has it stronger than previous runs and at 30 hours there's a weakness directly where the ridge was stronger 6 hours previous?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4288 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Oct 01, 2016 4:43 pm

FLpanhandle91 wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
FLpanhandle91 wrote:Straight north at 12 hours even though Matthew is clearly cyclonic looping itself and is trending westward as we speak...


its slower already at 24 hours with a stronger ridge..

slower yet at 30 hours.


Looks like it's having some major issues figuring out what the ridging situation is along the east coast. 24 hours has it stronger than previous runs and at 30 hours there's a weakness directly where the ridge was stronger 6 hours previous?


yeah, like the NHC said the models continue to struggle with the synoptic setup.. only time will tell.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4289 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Oct 01, 2016 4:44 pm

at 48 hours its about 100 miles sse of the 12z..
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4290 Postby PTrackerLA » Sat Oct 01, 2016 4:47 pm

Looks like a bit east shift and slower so far through 60 hours, not good for Haiti
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4291 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Sat Oct 01, 2016 4:48 pm

Jamaica spared in this run.

Image
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4292 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Oct 01, 2016 4:48 pm

PTrackerLA wrote:Looks like a bit east shift and slower so far through 60 hours, not good for Haiti


looks very similar to the UKMET so far
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4293 Postby robbielyn » Sat Oct 01, 2016 4:49 pm

that sse may be Matthew adjusting to the delay of turning. mark sudduth said it was spot on the forecasting of the south dip it took.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4294 Postby AutoPenalti » Sat Oct 01, 2016 4:50 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
PTrackerLA wrote:Looks like a bit east shift and slower so far through 60 hours, not good for Haiti


looks very similar to the UKMET so far

It shifts east with a stronger ridge? Something doesn't add up...
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
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ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4295 Postby RickM » Sat Oct 01, 2016 4:50 pm

FLpanhandle91 wrote:Straight north at 12 hours even though Matthew is clearly cyclonic looping itself and is trending westward as we speak...


It was a bit west but last frame looked north-east too me, but what do I know
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4296 Postby sphelps8681 » Sat Oct 01, 2016 4:51 pm

When is the North turn suppose to take place or when was it suppose to take place?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4297 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Sat Oct 01, 2016 4:52 pm

There may some land interference still, but in this run Matthew would spit Hispaniola and Cuba almost unchecked and maintain strength. Not sure how a stronger system coming out of the Caribbean would be affected by ridging differently.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4298 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Oct 01, 2016 4:52 pm

sphelps8681 wrote:When is the North turn suppose to take place or when was it suppose to take place?


should have happened late yesterday.

now who know when it happens.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4299 Postby p1nheadlarry » Sat Oct 01, 2016 4:52 pm

Hybridstorm_November2001 wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
NDG wrote:All I know is that the Euro has been very inconsistent so why put so much weight to it?


Because the GFS has been just as bad. It's tough because both of these models are so inconsistent. Outside of 72hrs, it's anyone's guess.


I don't know about that. Overall the long-range GFS, right or wrong, has been rather consistent in wanting to skirt the Outer Banks and then slam Matthew into the area between western Nova Scotia and Long Island.

If you don't believe me, take a gander at the saved images from the past three nights on my weather blog -

http://hybridstorm-weatherblog.blogspot.ca/


To add to this the ECMWF wanted to pull another Joaquin in taking Matthew further southwest and missing the anticipated connection. It has since changed towards the GFS albeit not as fast as the GFS had earlier.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4300 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Sat Oct 01, 2016 4:53 pm

sphelps8681 wrote:When is the North turn suppose to take place or when was it suppose to take place?


Per this GFS run (not too sure about other models) the north turn should be happening as we speak, but latest satellite imagery is showing it wobbling in place while trending slightly west.
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