ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3041 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Sat Oct 01, 2016 8:18 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Is there still radar data available? Or is it out of range for that?

Radar is no longer in range of the eye.

http://www.meteo.cw/rad_loop_ppi.php?La ... CC&Sws=R11
http://barbadosweather.org/BMS_radar_Composite.php
http://www.inameh.gob.ve/web/radar.php
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3042 Postby jlauderdal » Sat Oct 01, 2016 8:18 pm

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3043 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Oct 01, 2016 8:18 pm

cycloneye wrote:A big dilemma for NHC for 11 PM without recon nor satellite.


I'd just hold serve and go with the status quo (with a greater range of uncertainty in the position) until we can get Recon in - I would assume around 0600Z. Even for that it will be a tougher flight with its own radar driving it.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3044 Postby abajan » Sat Oct 01, 2016 8:19 pm

Nothing to see here, folks. Go to bed.

Good Night.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3045 Postby Hurrilurker » Sat Oct 01, 2016 8:20 pm

Watch the sat come back online and all of a sudden Matthew is 100 miles SE of Miami...
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3046 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 01, 2016 8:20 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
cycloneye wrote:A big dilemma for NHC for 11 PM without recon nor satellite.


I'd just hold serve and go with the status quo (with a greater range of uncertainty in the position) until we can get Recon in - I would assume around 0600Z. Even for that it will be a tougher flight with its own radar driving it.


Next plane departs at 5:30 AM EDT.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3047 Postby tolakram » Sat Oct 01, 2016 8:21 pm

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3048 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Sat Oct 01, 2016 8:21 pm

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3049 Postby AutoPenalti » Sat Oct 01, 2016 8:22 pm

Worst case scenario they will rely on average model output and keep the intensity the same...
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

TCVN
is a weighted averaged

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3050 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Oct 01, 2016 8:22 pm

cycloneye wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:
cycloneye wrote:A big dilemma for NHC for 11 PM without recon nor satellite.


I'd just hold serve and go with the status quo (with a greater range of uncertainty in the position) until we can get Recon in - I would assume around 0600Z. Even for that it will be a tougher flight with its own radar driving it.


Next plane departs at 5:30 AM EDT.


If they can get a plane ready in time, they should do a hurry-up mission for an 06Z arrival given the circumstances. I wonder if they might do such in the end anyway.

Until one goes in, I wouldn't touch any intensities or forecast tracks. The 00Z model runs will be pretty much useless as well.
Last edited by CrazyC83 on Sat Oct 01, 2016 8:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3051 Postby galaxy401 » Sat Oct 01, 2016 8:23 pm

So we are in a complete blackout with Matthew for now. Hope this can get fixed. Especially for Haiti and Jamaica monitoring it.
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Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3052 Postby ozonepete » Sat Oct 01, 2016 8:23 pm

tolakram wrote:So the details are a little different from what I read above.



Thanks for the additional info, Mark! We can hope.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3053 Postby Blown Away » Sat Oct 01, 2016 8:24 pm

Kinda old school now... Interesting situation given Matt is such a dangerous system... Time for the old vets at NHC to open their old fashion toolbag forecasting...

Crazy timing with the stall... Wow
Last edited by Blown Away on Sat Oct 01, 2016 8:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3054 Postby BobHarlem » Sat Oct 01, 2016 8:24 pm

The Navy is evacuating all non-essentials from Gitmo http://www.navy.mil/submit/display.asp?story_id=96983
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3055 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Oct 01, 2016 8:25 pm

Blown Away wrote:Kinda old school now... Interesting situation given Matt is such a dangerous system... Time for the old vets at NHC to open their old fashion toolbag forecasting...


We've gone back in time to before the 1940s...although really a better comparison might be the 1950s or 60s with occasional Recon (infrequent) and no satellite imagery.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3056 Postby Michele B » Sat Oct 01, 2016 8:26 pm

JtSmarts wrote:That Levi video GOLD! Did an excellent job of explaining all the different players on the field and why this situation is so complex.


I think I love Levi a lot! HE DOES make a very complicated issue very easy to understand.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3057 Postby SEASON_CANCELED » Sat Oct 01, 2016 8:27 pm

French and Russian meteorological satellites should still be mapping the area but with no zoom ala floater
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3058 Postby cjrciadt » Sat Oct 01, 2016 8:28 pm

Buoy data and ADT to make the estimate for pressure for 11pm Advisory?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3059 Postby jlauderdal » Sat Oct 01, 2016 8:31 pm

im expecting tweets coming from the two presidential candidates about this satellite situation
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3060 Postby HurricaneBelle » Sat Oct 01, 2016 8:32 pm

Guess you can say the satellite data comes and GOES.
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