#3455 Postby chaser1 » Sun Oct 02, 2016 11:01 am
Here's an odd thought, though not enough historical evidence to quite qualify as theory -
In a fuji-wara scenario where a trailing tropical cyclone might have a "rudder-like" impact causing another cyclone to its west to track more westward. The detached but larger area of convection that has persisted east of the storms core has often exhibited colder cloud tops than those closest to the eye itself. While this feature would have zero cyclonic steering influence, might it have a slightly enhancing affect of additionally warming the upper atmosphere thus acting to extend (or maintain) what was forecast to be a weakening mid level ridge north of the storm? Taking that thought one step further, might a temporarily weakening storm (whether upwelling, shear, etc), thus aid to "shut off" this mechanism by decreasing the degree of deep convection and reducing the degree of heat being dispersed at the upper levels? So in essence a less convective hurricane within a low latitude weak steering environment might just become that much less of a factor to enhance its own environment and in Matthew's case begin to finally turn more poleward.
It might just have been that consistent and added "firing of the coals", that up to now slightly aided Matthew's more west influenced track. If the storm weakens slightly and for a prolonged period of time (12+ hours), then perhaps that little difference changes the tipping scale and the northward turn finally begins.
0 likes
Andy D
(For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.)
