ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3441 Postby Evil Jeremy » Sun Oct 02, 2016 10:46 am

Sav_hurricane_hunter wrote:Just my 2 cents worth but the mets at NHC are there and the ones who arent and on this forum isnt at the NHC for a reason. I say that to say that every season people are so quick to say "nhc is bust on this forecast" and such. Well if the NHC has it east of Fl then I believe it will be east of Fl. I truly dont understand this -removed-, westcasting, & doomcasting. Not saying that nobody can question/wonder about the NHC 's forecast but if they continually show an east heading there's no need for these "what if" scenerios esp. when there's no "what if" chap. in nobody's science book ever.


Just be aware that the NHC continues to explicitly state they can't rule out effects from Matthew in Florida.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3442 Postby underthwx » Sun Oct 02, 2016 10:47 am

Bocadude85 wrote:Can someone explain to me what is going to cause the NNE movement prior to the turn back to the NNW?


98L ?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3443 Postby GCANE » Sun Oct 02, 2016 10:48 am

Core Temp dropped, now 5C

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)

A. Time of Center Fix: 2nd day of the month at 15:19:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 14°02'N 74°33'W (14.0333N 74.55W)

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 946mb (27.94 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,046m (9,993ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,043m (9,984ft)

L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles)
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3444 Postby AutoPenalti » Sun Oct 02, 2016 10:50 am

Image

Extremely weak steering right now.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3445 Postby WeatherOrKnot » Sun Oct 02, 2016 10:50 am

Bocadude85 wrote:Can someone explain to me what is going to cause the NNE movement prior to the turn back to the NNW?


I'd like to know this too...thanks!
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3446 Postby GCANE » Sun Oct 02, 2016 10:54 am

Image
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3447 Postby AdamFirst » Sun Oct 02, 2016 10:54 am

Having been here for 8 years now, it's funny to see the same arguments tossed back and forth during each big storm. :ggreen:
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3448 Postby Evenstar » Sun Oct 02, 2016 10:55 am

dukeblue219 wrote:
HURRICANELONNY wrote:They locked the model thread. Whats up with that. Who cares about the back and forth.


I am a long time lurker, but I admit it is frustrating when I wake up and want to see the technical model discussion from the overnight runs and there's 20 pages of mostly banter in the model page.

It's easy to just skip forward in the discussion thread but I don't want to have to do that in the model or recon threads.

Just my two cents as more of a reader than a contributor.


The hint has been given and taken, thanks. :oops:
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3449 Postby pcolaman » Sun Oct 02, 2016 10:55 am

With Matthews present movement, looks like he will be well south of Jamicia
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3450 Postby ThetaE » Sun Oct 02, 2016 10:55 am

Latest recon center fix is NNW of the previous one... Has a turn begun?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3451 Postby baitism » Sun Oct 02, 2016 10:58 am

Eye looks like it is clearing out. If this continues to meander another 12 hours, it could be bad news for Jamaica.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3452 Postby Sanibel » Sun Oct 02, 2016 10:59 am

I would say Matthew is pinned for the present under the High that isn't strong enough to send it into the front that is west of the cyclone.

In that steering situation these movements are bumps and can't be considered to be long term movements. In that situation the High weakens and the hurricane drifts poleward.

You are seeing early October Climatology in action only in a rare deep Caribbean location.
Last edited by Sanibel on Sun Oct 02, 2016 11:01 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3453 Postby AdamFirst » Sun Oct 02, 2016 10:59 am

12z GFS shimmies through the Winward Passage...core clips the Haitian Peninsula and the eastern tip of Cuba

I'm curious to know what causes this eastward nudge in the short term
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3454 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Oct 02, 2016 11:00 am

Based on recon data thus far, I'd be comfortable dropping the intensity down to 115 kt. Maybe even 110 kt due to SFMR being lower than the standard .9 reduction from flight level thus far.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3455 Postby chaser1 » Sun Oct 02, 2016 11:01 am

Here's an odd thought, though not enough historical evidence to quite qualify as theory -
In a fuji-wara scenario where a trailing tropical cyclone might have a "rudder-like" impact causing another cyclone to its west to track more westward. The detached but larger area of convection that has persisted east of the storms core has often exhibited colder cloud tops than those closest to the eye itself. While this feature would have zero cyclonic steering influence, might it have a slightly enhancing affect of additionally warming the upper atmosphere thus acting to extend (or maintain) what was forecast to be a weakening mid level ridge north of the storm? Taking that thought one step further, might a temporarily weakening storm (whether upwelling, shear, etc), thus aid to "shut off" this mechanism by decreasing the degree of deep convection and reducing the degree of heat being dispersed at the upper levels? So in essence a less convective hurricane within a low latitude weak steering environment might just become that much less of a factor to enhance its own environment and in Matthew's case begin to finally turn more poleward.

It might just have been that consistent and added "firing of the coals", that up to now slightly aided Matthew's more west influenced track. If the storm weakens slightly and for a prolonged period of time (12+ hours), then perhaps that little difference changes the tipping scale and the northward turn finally begins.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3456 Postby sponger » Sun Oct 02, 2016 11:06 am

Looks like a north wobble on last frame.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3457 Postby OntarioEggplant » Sun Oct 02, 2016 11:08 am

chaser1 wrote:Here's an odd thought, though not enough historical evidence to quite qualify as theory -
In a fuji-wara scenario where a trailing tropical cyclone might have a "rudder-like" impact causing another cyclone to its west to track more westward. The detached but larger area of convection that has persisted east of the storms core has often exhibited colder cloud tops than those closest to the eye itself. While this feature would have zero cyclonic steering influence, might it have a slightly enhancing affect of additionally warming the upper atmosphere thus acting to extend (or maintain) what was forecast to be a weakening mid level ridge north of the storm? Taking that thought one step further, might a temporarily weakening storm (whether upwelling, shear, etc), thus aid to "shut off" this mechanism by decreasing the degree of deep convection and reducing the degree of heat being dispersed at the upper levels? So in essence a less convective hurricane within a low latitude weak steering environment might just become that much less of a factor to enhance its own environment and in Matthew's case begin to finally turn more poleward.

It might just have been that consistent and added "firing of the coals", that up to now slightly aided Matthew's more west influenced track. If the storm weakens slightly and for a prolonged period of time (12+ hours), then perhaps that little difference changes the tipping scale and the northward turn finally begins.


I do think the lobe is helping to impart the westward motion in Matthew, but mainly with respect to being a large mass with high momentum within the overall cyclonic gyre.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3458 Postby sponger » Sun Oct 02, 2016 11:09 am

OntarioEggplant wrote:
chaser1 wrote:Here's an odd thought, though not enough historical evidence to quite qualify as theory -
In a fuji-wara scenario where a trailing tropical cyclone might have a "rudder-like" impact causing another cyclone to its west to track more westward. The detached but larger area of convection that has persisted east of the storms core has often exhibited colder cloud tops than those closest to the eye itself. While this feature would have zero cyclonic steering influence, might it have a slightly enhancing affect of additionally warming the upper atmosphere thus acting to extend (or maintain) what was forecast to be a weakening mid level ridge north of the storm? Taking that thought one step further, might a temporarily weakening storm (whether upwelling, shear, etc), thus aid to "shut off" this mechanism by decreasing the degree of deep convection and reducing the degree of heat being dispersed at the upper levels? So in essence a less convective hurricane within a low latitude weak steering environment might just become that much less of a factor to enhance its own environment and in Matthew's case begin to finally turn more poleward.

It might just have been that consistent and added "firing of the coals", that up to now slightly aided Matthew's more west influenced track. If the storm weakens slightly and for a prolonged period of time (12+ hours), then perhaps that little difference changes the tipping scale and the northward turn finally begins.


I do think the lobe is helping to impart the westward motion in Matthew, but mainly with respect to being a large mass with high momentum within the overall cyclonic gyre.


Looks like its finally losing it anyway.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3459 Postby Evil Jeremy » Sun Oct 02, 2016 11:11 am

sponger wrote:Looks like a north wobble on last frame.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html


Based on that loop, it looks like the eye is about to burst open. Finally undergoing a replacement cycle? That would help explain the irregular motion as of late...
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3460 Postby Bocadude85 » Sun Oct 02, 2016 11:11 am

sponger wrote:Looks like a north wobble on last frame.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html


Almost looks like a small cyclonic loop
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