psyclone wrote:I have read plenty of posts coaxing this storm much farther west (closer to or toward Florida) for days...and yet...when one steps back and looks at the NHC tracks during that timeframe...not so much. So whether it's "wobbling west" "missing it's next point" or "pumping the ridge" (my fav)...take a deep breath and carefully watch the NHC forecasts. and remember...there are multiple scenarios that spare florida but only one that drills the state (a significant left shift)...possible but probably not the most likely outcome. Continued happy watching.
Latest EURO further make's NHC's case of Matthew passing safely east of Florida. As for myself however, it appears to me that the long wave pattern remains out in the E. Atlantic and to a lesser extent showing some deep troughing off the Pacific NW. Ridging has remained fairly consistent over E. Conus. This text from NCEP
( http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussion ... isc=pmdhmd ) is updated at least twice daily, can easily support or debate one's case for trying to reach a solution either east or west of present track forecasts:
REGARDING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO, THE 12Z NAM
CONTINUES TO BE TOO STRONG WITH IT WITH RESPECT TO THE OTHER
MODELS. THE 12Z UKMET APPEARS WEAKEST AND SHOW FLAT 500MB FLOW BY
48 HOURS. A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF IS FAVORED FOR THE
TIME BEING. THE LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORY HAS MORE INFORMATION
ON HURRICANE MATTHEW.
The fact that NCEP see's an above average consensus for the model solutions for a deeper digging of the W. Coast trough, along with the recent evolution of upper energy seemingly getting pulled up and over the fairly persistent mid level ridge over the N.E. US... leads me to believe that the pattern is no less progressive but that the westerlies are simply supressed that much further north over the N.E. Conus. In the face of the overall N. Hemispheric pattern (72hr. 500mb N. Hemisphere - http://meteocentre.com/models/explorate ... est&hh=072 ), I think its not unreasonable to suggest that models are overplaying the significance of a weak 200mb trough which is anticipated to reflect lower and enhance the deep layer flow enough AND erode present ridging north of the storm. At least not to the extent that models are projecting to the contrary. If this all sounds like splitting hairs, well perhaps it is. But there's just that many hairs between the official track and the Florida coast, assuming that models are overplaying an upper level feature. I"m actually impressed with the relative accuracy of the major models; I honestly expected Matthew to track south and west of Jamaica and that certainly does not look at all likely at this time.