ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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chaser1
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3561 Postby chaser1 » Sun Oct 02, 2016 2:56 pm

psyclone wrote:I have read plenty of posts coaxing this storm much farther west (closer to or toward Florida) for days...and yet...when one steps back and looks at the NHC tracks during that timeframe...not so much. So whether it's "wobbling west" "missing it's next point" or "pumping the ridge" (my fav)...take a deep breath and carefully watch the NHC forecasts. and remember...there are multiple scenarios that spare florida but only one that drills the state (a significant left shift)...possible but probably not the most likely outcome. Continued happy watching.


Latest EURO further make's NHC's case of Matthew passing safely east of Florida. As for myself however, it appears to me that the long wave pattern remains out in the E. Atlantic and to a lesser extent showing some deep troughing off the Pacific NW. Ridging has remained fairly consistent over E. Conus. This text from NCEP
( http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussion ... isc=pmdhmd ) is updated at least twice daily, can easily support or debate one's case for trying to reach a solution either east or west of present track forecasts:

REGARDING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO, THE 12Z NAM
CONTINUES TO BE TOO STRONG WITH IT WITH RESPECT TO THE OTHER
MODELS. THE 12Z UKMET APPEARS WEAKEST AND SHOW FLAT 500MB FLOW BY
48 HOURS. A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF IS FAVORED FOR THE
TIME BEING. THE LATEST NHC FORECAST ADVISORY HAS MORE INFORMATION
ON HURRICANE MATTHEW.

The fact that NCEP see's an above average consensus for the model solutions for a deeper digging of the W. Coast trough, along with the recent evolution of upper energy seemingly getting pulled up and over the fairly persistent mid level ridge over the N.E. US... leads me to believe that the pattern is no less progressive but that the westerlies are simply supressed that much further north over the N.E. Conus. In the face of the overall N. Hemispheric pattern (72hr. 500mb N. Hemisphere - http://meteocentre.com/models/explorate ... est&hh=072 ), I think its not unreasonable to suggest that models are overplaying the significance of a weak 200mb trough which is anticipated to reflect lower and enhance the deep layer flow enough AND erode present ridging north of the storm. At least not to the extent that models are projecting to the contrary. If this all sounds like splitting hairs, well perhaps it is. But there's just that many hairs between the official track and the Florida coast, assuming that models are overplaying an upper level feature. I"m actually impressed with the relative accuracy of the major models; I honestly expected Matthew to track south and west of Jamaica and that certainly does not look at all likely at this time.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3562 Postby nativefloridian » Sun Oct 02, 2016 2:56 pm

Appears Matthew's eye is knocking on 75W's door before crossing 15N. Hope that poleward turn we've been anticipating for a couple days actually becomes reality. Concerned with the ramifications if this continues on a more NW movement over the next 24 hrs, as opposed to heading NNW then N, and finally NE OTS. Just keeping any eye out (no pun intended)!

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Last edited by nativefloridian on Sun Oct 02, 2016 2:59 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3563 Postby BobHarlem » Sun Oct 02, 2016 2:57 pm

Sanibel wrote:Breaking out of near stall and going close to NHC N track...


Where you seeing that? I've been watching http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... map=county looks like NW still, appears it may cross 75W around 14.6-14.9N
Last edited by BobHarlem on Sun Oct 02, 2016 3:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3564 Postby SunnyThoughts » Sun Oct 02, 2016 2:59 pm

Cainer wrote:When's the next RECON mission heading in?


I believe there is a NOAA flight in there now...or headed that way.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3565 Postby hurricanefloyd5 » Sun Oct 02, 2016 3:02 pm

nativefloridian wrote:Appears Matthew's eye is knocking on 75W's door before crossing 15N. Hope that poleward turn we've been anticipating for a couple days actually becomes reality. Concerned with the ramifications if this continues on a more NW movement over the next 24 hrs, as opposed to heading NNW then N, and finally NE OTS. Just keeping any eye out (no pun intended)!

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It looks like on satellite Loop that monstrous Matthew right now is at 14.84 and 75.01 as a right now which would approximately put it a little bit further west than the forecast track not much but just by a hair
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3566 Postby Alyono » Sun Oct 02, 2016 3:02 pm

msbee wrote:yes, the cone now is not over Jamaica at all. Does that mean JA will escape the worst of this?



read the sticky as to what the cone means. Cone says nothing about impact areas. Jamaica is still expected to receive very severe flooding on its north facing slopes
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3567 Postby Caribwxgirl » Sun Oct 02, 2016 3:04 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:back to west motion lol.. every little bit brings every so close to Jamaica


Rains have already started in eastern parishes there. Have seen Facebook posts lots of water already in some areas so no matter how close it really gets my island will have effects.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3568 Postby tolakram » Sun Oct 02, 2016 3:05 pm

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/782655218173390848




Eric Blake
Last major #hurricane to hit #Haiti from the S was Hazel 1954- Very concerned as ~1000 died then- Extremely dangerous situation w/#Matthew
2:55 PM - 2 Oct 2016
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3569 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Sun Oct 02, 2016 3:08 pm

This obviously had some sort of ERC but its pretty strange for it to go from 6 miles to only 12 miles. Usually they are more substantial than that. I did notice in the last vortex that the dewpoint has come up quite a bit from where it has been, so the environment is getting more moist.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3570 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Sun Oct 02, 2016 3:14 pm

Buoy 42058 looks to be in the path of Matthew. Its readings will be interesting
Winds are at 44kts sustained and gusts to 58kts. Pressure is around 990mb and falling rapidly.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42058
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3571 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Oct 02, 2016 3:19 pm

looks like it will be west of the forecast point for 00z and slightly slower
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3572 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Oct 02, 2016 3:22 pm

Still think land interaction is going to play a role in the track. there are a lot of mountains and the circ potentially bouncing around/getting stuck is a real possibility.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3573 Postby LCfromFL » Sun Oct 02, 2016 3:22 pm

ScottNAtlanta wrote:Buoy 42058 looks to be in the path of Matthew. Its readings will be interesting
Winds are at 44kts sustained and gusts to 58kts. Pressure is around 990mb and falling rapidly.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42058


Shouldn't this have updated at 3:50 pm? It shows the last update at 2:50 pm. Am I reading it wrong?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3574 Postby SunnyThoughts » Sun Oct 02, 2016 3:24 pm

http://www.jamaicaradio.net/power-106/ This is the Jamaican radio station we always listen to when a system threatens them. Apparently some flooding already in some areas.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3575 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Sun Oct 02, 2016 3:25 pm

LCfromFL wrote:
ScottNAtlanta wrote:Buoy 42058 looks to be in the path of Matthew. Its readings will be interesting
Winds are at 44kts sustained and gusts to 58kts. Pressure is around 990mb and falling rapidly.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42058


Shouldn't this have updated at 3:50 pm? It shows the last update at 2:50 pm. Am I reading it wrong?


Its default is AST I think (no EST is correct)...and sometimes they are slow to update. Probably late to update is more likely
Last edited by ScottNAtlanta on Sun Oct 02, 2016 3:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3576 Postby SunnyThoughts » Sun Oct 02, 2016 3:28 pm

https://twitter.com/CVMTV/status/782675374802997248 some pics of Jamaica with some flooding already
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3577 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Sun Oct 02, 2016 3:28 pm

It was mentioned earlier that this storm could pump up the ridge more, i am not sure if that can happen in hurricanes. The GFS is showing no evidence of this either. As the ridge weakens, this storm will want to head STRAIGHT north. Hurricanes want to head poleward and thats evident through the estimated track.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3578 Postby AutoPenalti » Sun Oct 02, 2016 3:29 pm

Motion is back west. This is getting interesting by the hour.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3579 Postby pgoss11 » Sun Oct 02, 2016 3:30 pm

Looking at the 18z spaghetti runs it looks like less of a westward turn after Matthew crosses Cuba and enters the Bahamas. There is a general consensus that there will be some leftward track but it looks like if these are correct it will be a miss for the US East coast. Hopefully this will work out.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3580 Postby Shuriken » Sun Oct 02, 2016 3:31 pm

-80c+ "gray" (in RBTOP) tops really flaring again now after being absent for quite some time, and feeder back activity is finally well established on the west side of the storm.

Still looks like another EWRC to clean out a larger eye has yet to finish, and when it does, I would not be at all surprised to see another max-out bombing run. Allen, Mitch, and Wilma all achieved 180mph in this region.
Last edited by Shuriken on Sun Oct 02, 2016 3:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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