ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[OntarioEggplant]

so its up to the forecaster to draw the cone? the cone will move as the track shifts accordingly, i like the cone as there is no randomness or opinion...if the private forecasters including media want to step out and make a forecast than they can..look, there is plenty of time to get ready in florida, everybody is warned before june 1 in hurricane areas to have supplies and a plan..if you dont then you should

No. By accounting for the variability in models, it shouldn't shift much overall, it just makes a larger cone. The shifts would be very slight unless there was a massive shift in all models with good agreement.

So what you want is a larger cone basically? The size of the cone is determined by statistical error.

Which is a failure in a situation with large model variability like this. It's like relying on an old statistical model like the CLIPR. When the variability between say two major models is greater than the statistical error, that presents a problem.

[Sanibel]

On the move now according to NHC track.


And here comes the West shift right on time. Florida residents should take these shifts seriously until proven otherwise to err on the safe side in my opinion (And get all information from official sources).

[SouthDadeFish]

Recon is suggesting an EWRC is currently underway. A clear secondary wind max was found in the NE quadrant and the wind field has expanded.

[Blown Away]

Hazardous Weather Outlook
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
557 AM EDT MON OCT 3 2016
FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY-
NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-
COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY-
NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-
557 AM EDT MON OCT 3 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
MAJOR HURRICANE MATTHEW IS CURRENTLY MOVING SLOWLY NORTH OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. MATTHEW IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THE HURRICANE WILL THEN LIFT NORTH-NORTHWEST OVER THE BAHAMAS
FROM MID TO LATE WEEK. AT A MINIMUM, THIS WOULD GENERATE WINDY
CONDITIONS AT THE COAST WITH BUILDING SEAS, POUNDING SURF, AND
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AT THE BEACHES FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WORK WEEK. SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.

RESIDENTS AND VISITORS TO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA ARE ENCOURAGED
TO MONITOR THE LATEST TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS ON HURRICANE
MATTHEW FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

BRAGAW

http://www.weather.gov/mlb
NWS Melbourne Florida forecast as of 6am...

[wxmann_91]

No. By accounting for the variability in models, it shouldn't shift much overall, it just makes a larger cone. The shifts would be very slight unless there was a massive shift in all models with good agreement.

So what you want is a larger cone basically? The size of the cone is determined by statistical error.

Which is a failure in a situation with large model variability like this. It's like relying on an old statistical model like the CLIPR. When the variability between say two major models is greater than the statistical error, that presents a problem.

But if you don't use that methodology, you introduce subjectivity and bias into the cone. And then forecasters will have to coordinate cone size, on top of already trying to keep continuity in track, intensity, wind radii, watches/warnings, key impacts wordings, etc.

[sponger]

Alot of mets seems to be banking on the trends that is recently happening not really reflecting reality, risky to go down that route for sure!

Does seem like an east hint to the motion, still near due north but a touch east, like 5 degrees or something.

They have been burned before. The 5 update will change all of their outlooks.

[jlauderdal]

No. By accounting for the variability in models, it shouldn't shift much overall, it just makes a larger cone. The shifts would be very slight unless there was a massive shift in all models with good agreement.

So what you want is a larger cone basically? The size of the cone is determined by statistical error.

Which is a failure in a situation with large model variability like this. It's like relying on an old statistical model like the CLIPR. When the variability between say two major models is greater than the statistical error, that presents a problem.

it presents a huge problem having random cones drawn by different folks causing massive confusion by an already confused public..you can put an nhc track directly over fort lauderdale and there is massive confusion as to what to do and when as hard as the govt and media try to keep it clear...can you imagine having multiple cones out there in the public, yikes..the statistical cone is already dubbed the cone of confusion and its pure science

[Blinhart]

A westward the models will go, I knew there was no way this was gonna go due North and then NNE.

weel it hasnt verfied yet but where do you think its going after cuba?

Right to your back door.

[cycloneye]

Down to 940 mbs on last pass of this Air Force mission.

[Sanibel]

And headed towards an improving upper level High...

[hurricaneCW]

Just when you thought it was safe to breath, now the entire east coast is back in danger. Could end up being a mix between Floyd/Hazel and then you throw in the trough interaction.

[stormreader]

I hope people in Fl are beginning to realize the seriousness of the situation. This storm will very likely rival, if not be stronger, than the likes of some of the all-time great Fl storms. It will come in from the Bahamas where it should remain powerful, if not even grow in intensity. It will be larger than Andrew or Charley which were both smallish in size. It will be on the order of the Great Miami Hurricane of 1926 or the Lake Okeechobee Hurricane or 1928 or even stronger. In any case it will be up there with some of the most infamous storms of all time, and has the potential to be the worse.

[jlauderdal]

A westward the models will go, I knew there was no way this was gonna go due North and then NNE.

weel it hasnt verfied yet but where do you think its going after cuba?

Right to your back door.

i think it goes at least 100 miles north of fort lauderdale so now we are both on record

[KWT]

Down to 940 mbs on last pass of this Air Force mission.

Interesting, this system has been toying with an EWRC for a while yet pressure is still dropping.

It seems like the type of storm where the inner eyewall won't collapse until the outer has contracted almost into its place. Maybe land interaction will finally be what does it.

[AutoPenalti]

A westward the models will go, I knew there was no way this was gonna go due North and then NNE.

weel it hasnt verfied yet but where do you think its going after cuba?

Right to your back door.

Ouch, Ft. Lauderdale.

I live about 10 minutes by the coast.

[abajan]

The 11 am says nudged "east" did they mean "west" or did it really get nudged "east" Not really important at this point - but curious.

Well, interesting. I was nudged west according to the graphic they publish.

Perhaps the southern part of the cone was nudged east while the northern part was nudged west.

[ThetaE]

Recon is suggesting an EWRC is currently underway. A clear secondary wind max was found in the NE quadrant and the wind field has expanded.

Down to 940 mbs on last pass of this Air Force mission.

So it's undergoing an EWRC, yet deepening slightly?

[AutoPenalti]

Recon is suggesting an EWRC is currently underway. A clear secondary wind max was found in the NE quadrant and the wind field has expanded.

Down to 940 mbs on last pass of this Air Force mission.

So it's undergoing an EWRC, yet deepening slightly?

Matthew logic.

[psyclone]

I hope people in Fl are beginning to realize the seriousness of the situation. This storm will very likely rival, if not be stronger, than the likes of some of the all-time great Fl storms. It will come in from the Bahamas where it should remain powerful, if not even grow in intensity. It will be larger than Andrew or Charley which were both smallish in size. It will be on the order of the Great Miami Hurricane of 1926 or the Lake Okeechobee Hurricane or 1928 or even stronger. In any case it will be up there with some of the most infamous storms of all time, and has the potential to be the worse.

That's the definition of pure, unjustified hype.

[KWT]

Looks like a very nervy few days ahead for Florida and the east coast in general, especially SC/NC.

The bad news is any land blow is going to be short from Haiti and Cuba and really isn't going to put this storm down too much.