Evil Jeremy wrote:OntarioEggplant wrote:jlauderdal wrote:so its up to the forecaster to draw the cone? the cone will move as the track shifts accordingly, i like the cone as there is no randomness or opinion...if the private forecasters including media want to step out and make a forecast than they can..look, there is plenty of time to get ready in florida, everybody is warned before june 1 in hurricane areas to have supplies and a plan..if you dont then you should
No. By accounting for the variability in models, it shouldn't shift much overall, it just makes a larger cone. The shifts would be very slight unless there was a massive shift in all models with good agreement.
So what you want is a larger cone basically? The size of the cone is determined by statistical error.
Which is a failure in a situation with large model variability like this. It's like relying on an old statistical model like the CLIPR. When the variability between say two major models is greater than the statistical error, that presents a problem.