galaxy401 wrote:SunnyThoughts wrote:ThetaE wrote:
I should add that I'm assuming recon gets a pass in before the advisory, otherwise they probably won't change anything.
I don't think recon will find it much stronger, if any at all. Takes a while for restrengthening after a ewc, but what I do expect is to see that the wind fields have expanded.
Agreed with this. Pressure is probably lower though (which will be the lowest for this storm yet).
Yeah, maybe I'm a bit too aggressive with the winds, but I'm actually basing it off of this statement from the 5 PM discussion:
The most recent Air
Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft mission found peak SFMR winds of 124
kt on their last pass through the northeastern eyewall, and a peak
flight-level wind of 118 kt.
I guess they went with 120 kt because of the flight-level wind, but I don't really think it'll take that much to get 130 kt surface winds.
I'm a busy grad student, not a professional forecaster. Please refer to the NHC and NWS for official forecasts.