ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SunnyThoughts]

Any intensity estimates for 8pm?

938 mb, 130 kt. If it can get its EWRC done in time, it should be able to strengthen some.

I should add that I'm assuming recon gets a pass in before the advisory, otherwise they probably won't change anything.

I don't think recon will find it much stronger, if any at all. Takes a while for restrengthening after a ewc, but what I do expect is to see that the wind fields have expanded.

[Kazmit]

Any intensity estimates for 8pm?

I think stays the same until recon gets a chance to check it out.

Recon is on it's way. Hopefully they make a pass before 8.

Hopefully. Haiti needs that information.

[galaxy401]

938 mb, 130 kt. If it can get its EWRC done in time, it should be able to strengthen some.

I should add that I'm assuming recon gets a pass in before the advisory, otherwise they probably won't change anything.

I don't think recon will find it much stronger, if any at all. Takes a while for restrengthening after a ewc, but what I do expect is to see that the wind fields have expanded.

Agreed with this. Pressure is probably lower though (which will be the lowest for this storm yet).

[Cdavis]

Sooo I live in the Daytona Beach area.. Not looking good possibly. Given the current track ect around when do you think the storm would possibly be in the area? Is the NWS pretty accurate with their current time frame?

[ConvergenceZone]

I think Pro Met DeltaDog is MIA. Usually he's all over these Canes.....


I think Matthew may not be done yet intensifying based on appearance

[Raebie]

I think stays the same until recon gets a chance to check it out.

Recon is on it's way. Hopefully they make a pass before 8.

Hopefully. Haiti needs that information.

Honestly, what would they do with it?

[ozonepete]

A lot of talk that Matthew is undergoing an ERC. Is there any 89 or 91Ghz microwave satellite evidence or RECON evidence or is this speculation? Just curious since I haven't seen any such evidence and the NHC hasn't said one has started.

[ThetaE]

I should add that I'm assuming recon gets a pass in before the advisory, otherwise they probably won't change anything.

I don't think recon will find it much stronger, if any at all. Takes a while for restrengthening after a ewc, but what I do expect is to see that the wind fields have expanded.

Agreed with this. Pressure is probably lower though (which will be the lowest for this storm yet).

Yeah, maybe I'm a bit too aggressive with the winds, but I'm actually basing it off of this statement from the 5 PM discussion:

The most recent Air
Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft mission found peak SFMR winds of 124
kt on their last pass through the northeastern eyewall, and a peak
flight-level wind of 118 kt.

I guess they went with 120 kt because of the flight-level wind, but I don't really think it'll take that much to get 130 kt surface winds.

[La Sirena]

Well, just to make things interesting: The Dept. of Agriculture has put a quarantine on the Florida Keys for anyone trying to arrive or leave with their pets. A full on checkpoint at MM 106 due to the Screwworms that have been found in the lower Keys. Hope there's no evacuations coming for us lol.

What the hell???????? I never even heard of those?? Could you imagine that whole disaster with Dept. of Agriculture trying to enforce THAT quarantine "if" Matthew (or any future storm) were barreling down on the keys? Crazy stuff folks! Only in Florida though

I said the exact same thing to my husband! It's already a huge process to evacuate but now you're going to have a checkpoint with a hurricane possibly coming in? Hell no.

[Blown Away]

Interesting the NHC 72 hour surface map has 98L as "Future Tropical Cyclone" thinking somehow this is playing a roll bringing Matt more west???

[Blinhart]

Interesting the NHC 72 hour surface map has 98L as "Future Tropical Cyclone" thinking somehow this is playing a roll bringing Matt more west???

Anyone up for some Atlantic Ocean Fujiwara action? Might be interesting if it might happen.

[bg1]

Interesting the NHC 72 hour surface map has 98L as "Future Tropical Cyclone" thinking somehow this is playing a roll bringing Matt more west???

I thought it would pull it more N or E? Or weaken the ridge so it would escape E anyway?

[TheStormExpert]

Not liking the trend with the forecast from the NWS: Miami.

[1900hurricane]

A lot of talk that Matthew is undergoing an ERC. Is there any 89 or 91Ghz microwave satellite evidence or RECON evidence or is this speculation? Just curious since I haven't seen any such evidence and the NHC hasn't said one has started.

Looks to me that the first evidence of a developing outer eyewall showed up on microwave on this 1230Z F-18 pass. The inner eyewall has begun to slowly dissipate ever since, such as seen in the 2011Z GPM pass (also seen here in 36 GHz). IR trends also seem to suggest to me that the inner eyewall has begun to dissipate and will soon be collapsing into the new eye.

[Hurrilurker]

Recon is on it's way. Hopefully they make a pass before 8.

Hopefully. Haiti needs that information.

Honestly, what would they do with it?

A fair point. At this point there is virtually no chance Haiti won't be significantly affected, with a very high chance of a direct hit by a major hurricane, so they need to already be mobilizing regardless of what recon finds. Same with Bahamas and eastern Cuba.

[Cunxi Huang]

2145Z GOES-13 RGB

[SunnyThoughts]

Recon showing how the wind fields have expanded a lot. Knew that was coming just from watching the ir loops and how large he is becoming.

[alan1961]

Zoomed in GFS 18Z, 72 Hours out..Hmm, a bit to close for comfort!!

[ThetaE]

Recon showing how the wind fields have expanded a lot. Knew that was coming just from watching the ir loops and how large he is becoming.

Not a good thing to have happening as this storm approaches the Greater Antilles!! A weaker but broader windfield is much more dangerous than a stronger but smaller windfield, since it may not directly travel over land.

[sponger]

[quote="SunnyThoughts"][quote="alan1961"]Just looked on flight radar and noticed one of the Noaa planes out near Matthew obviously looks like
taking readings etc.


Love the double loop off of Haiti.