ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion
Moderator: S2k Moderators
- weathaguyry
- Category 5
- Posts: 1272
- Age: 22
- Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 5:16 am
- Location: Long Island, NY
Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion
If anybody is interested, Force 13 is doing a live segment on youtube, and they are taking questions too!
0 likes
My posts are only my opinions and NOT official forecasts. For official forecasts, consult the National Hurricane Center or the National Weather Service.
Irene 11', Sandy 12', Fay 20’, Isaias 20’, Elsa 21’, Henri 21’, Ida 21’
Irene 11', Sandy 12', Fay 20’, Isaias 20’, Elsa 21’, Henri 21’, Ida 21’
- Weatherboy1
- Category 5
- Posts: 1189
- Age: 49
- Joined: Mon Jul 05, 2004 1:50 pm
- Location: Jupiter/Sarasota, FL
Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion
Well at this point all I can do is hope the middle of the night global model runs stop and/or reverse the westward trend. If not, or if they shift even further west, it'll be time to go into full on prep mode tomorrow!
0 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 3755
- Joined: Sun May 17, 2009 10:16 pm
- Location: miami fl
Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion
ok this remind me andrew coming from south i bet publix little busy for mon night when people see that hurr on tv us in cone
0 likes
Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=200
NAVGEM went from hr 66 to 144. I missed the best part!
NAVGEM went from hr 66 to 144. I missed the best part!
0 likes
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 21238
- Age: 42
- Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
- Location: Ready for the Chase.
- Contact:
Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion
wind field has grown quite a bit.
0 likes
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion
HurricaneBelle wrote:Michele B wrote:The only reason I'm still beating on this is because right now he's the ONLY LOCAL MET that i would believe! HE CALLED CHARLEY'S TURN EAST when everyone else was saying, "Going to Tampa!!!"
Now he's sounding like he has no idea about these things.....
Eh, unless he was calling it the day before, calling Charley's further east turn before the NHC got around to it was not exactly a mean feat. It was apparent by about 9-10 AM on the day it was approaching Florida that Charley had gone as far west as he was going to go and already had starting losing longitude relative to the Tampa Bay area. As someone in the bullseye at the time, I noticed this myself watching satellite and radar and several of the mets here in the Tampa Bay area made the same observation on their late morning/noontime news reports. The problem was that the NHC stuck to its guns on the track with the 11AM advisory when it was already obvious Charley was going in further east (and hence further south) along the coast and it wasn't until 1-2 PM that they acknowledged the obvious with a special advisory.
No, you're right, he wasn't calling it the day before. But he DID call it before noon on Friday when everyone else kept saying, "Going to Tampa!" even AS IT WAS OBVIOUSLY TURNING EAST!!! Gave me plenty of time to get everything boarded up. As it was, if it was going to Tampa, I was only going to board up on the side of the winds we would have gotten (south and east side), but once it was clear it was turning, I had plenty of time to get it all done!
I' ve seen him do really GOOD analysis of storms and their structure, and the systems that will steer them, etc., so it was really shocking that he said such a thing today.
0 likes
Cleo - 1964, Betsy - 1965, David - 1979, Andrew - 1992, Charlie (Francis, Ivan, Jeanne) - 2004, Irma - 2017, Ian - 2022
-
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 131
- Joined: Sat Oct 01, 2016 6:12 am
Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion
Would like to hear an update from Levi. Hopefully he does a video tonight.
2 likes
- AdamFirst
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 2491
- Age: 36
- Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2008 10:54 am
- Location: Port Saint Lucie, FL
Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion
Live with Jeff Berardelli (CBS 12 West Palm chief meteorologist), says the 00z model suite just came in and the bulk of the group has shifted to the west...again.
On now: https://www.facebook.com/CBS12News/post ... 8334107941
On now: https://www.facebook.com/CBS12News/post ... 8334107941
0 likes
Dolphins Marlins Canes Golden Panthers HEAT
Andrew 1992 - Irene 1999 - Frances 2004 - Jeanne 2004 - Wilma 2005 - Fay 2008 - Isaac 2012 - Matthew 2016 - Irma 2017 - Dorian 2019 - Ian 2022 - Nicole 2022 - Milton 2024
Andrew 1992 - Irene 1999 - Frances 2004 - Jeanne 2004 - Wilma 2005 - Fay 2008 - Isaac 2012 - Matthew 2016 - Irma 2017 - Dorian 2019 - Ian 2022 - Nicole 2022 - Milton 2024
Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion
sponger wrote:jlauderdal wrote:just heard it..thats how they roll in the carib..deal with the cane and move forwardsnowpocalypse wrote:
Anybody catch the 'hurricane song' on this station? I love the laid back forecast discussion
They are talking about keeping a window on the opposite side open to relieve pressure so your house won't pop. Anyone want to take stab at verifying if that is a good idea?
very bad idea. old wives tale, doesn't work, lag time in getting to safety and flying debris does more damage to you or your house
0 likes
Robbielyn McCrary
I know just about enough to sound like I know what I'm talking about sometimes. But for your safety please follow the nhc for truly professional forecasting.
I know just about enough to sound like I know what I'm talking about sometimes. But for your safety please follow the nhc for truly professional forecasting.

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion
How much of the high mountain terrain will Matthew be over on Cuba?
0 likes
Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion
HurricaneBelle wrote:GCANE wrote:Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
RAGGED EYEWALL WITH KYDNEY SHAPED EYE
Is "kydney" some kind of British spelling, like "tyre"?
On behalf of all Anglophiles who grew up watching Masterpiece Theatre (and other classic Brit offerings), I must say the following:
That is hilarious.
Kudos aside, your question is perfectly reasonable. After all, we are talking about an island kingdom where potato chips are crisps, french fries are chips and cookies are biscuits.
(I'm not being a hater. I've lived there twice and I'm an ardent Anglophile.)
3 likes
I never received my Hogwarts letter, so I'm leaving the Shire and becoming a Sith Lord.
- gatorcane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 23693
- Age: 47
- Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
- Location: Boca Raton, FL
Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion
Aric Dunn wrote:wind field has grown quite a bit.
Yep and looks like the WEST side has plenty of deep convection too even more than the east at the moment.

0 likes
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 2777
- Joined: Fri Aug 29, 2003 10:52 am
- Location: Biloxi Beach, Ms
- Contact:
Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion
This really disturbs me, I really feel the death toll on Haiti will be catastrophic with this storm.... looks like it will be a direct hit with the eye and the dreaded east side of the storm, and perhaps one of the strongest storms ever to hit the island... just so tragic.... they will need a plethora of help recovering as well.... oh my.... starting to get flashbacks from Katrina all over again... very sad for all affected..
2 likes
Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion
1 likes
I'm a busy grad student, not a professional forecaster. Please refer to the NHC and NWS for official forecasts.
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 2263
- Joined: Wed Jul 09, 2003 12:42 pm
- Location: Pensacola, Florida
Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion
Frank P wrote:This really disturbs me, I really feel the death toll on Haiti will be catastrophic with this storm.... looks like it will be a direct hit with the eye and the dreaded east side of the storm, and perhaps one of the strongest storms ever to hit the island... just so tragic.... they will need a plethora of help recovering as well.... oh my.... starting to get flashbacks from Katrina all over again... very sad for all affected..
I feel the same way Frank. I put in for vacation over a month ago for this week, and Im spending a lot of my time watching this all unfold. I'm a little nauseated from worry about everyone in Haiti, cuba as well as everyone along the Eastern coast of the Conus. Please PLEASE be prepared for this storm, it doesn't take much time to be prepared, and if in the end you really didn't need to, well then you wasted a little time doing something constructive, but if you do, it may save your life.
1 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 3755
- Joined: Sun May 17, 2009 10:16 pm
- Location: miami fl
Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion
so look will get close to plam beach more and Miami what he saying on Facebook
0 likes
- Weatherboy1
- Category 5
- Posts: 1189
- Age: 49
- Joined: Mon Jul 05, 2004 1:50 pm
- Location: Jupiter/Sarasota, FL
Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion
That CDO expansion sure is something to see - getting much larger here. Ugh
Last edited by Weatherboy1 on Mon Oct 03, 2016 7:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
- AdamFirst
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 2491
- Age: 36
- Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2008 10:54 am
- Location: Port Saint Lucie, FL
Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion
ripped from the CBS 12 live stream - their in house wind gust projection tool using the 18z GFS data


0 likes
Dolphins Marlins Canes Golden Panthers HEAT
Andrew 1992 - Irene 1999 - Frances 2004 - Jeanne 2004 - Wilma 2005 - Fay 2008 - Isaac 2012 - Matthew 2016 - Irma 2017 - Dorian 2019 - Ian 2022 - Nicole 2022 - Milton 2024
Andrew 1992 - Irene 1999 - Frances 2004 - Jeanne 2004 - Wilma 2005 - Fay 2008 - Isaac 2012 - Matthew 2016 - Irma 2017 - Dorian 2019 - Ian 2022 - Nicole 2022 - Milton 2024
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 21238
- Age: 42
- Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
- Location: Ready for the Chase.
- Contact:
Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion
recon showing its intensified again.. lol
0 likes
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion
Even ADT is showing some strengthening
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 03 OCT 2016 Time : 234500 UTC
Lat : 16:35:09 N Lon : 74:34:15 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.8 / 926.5mb/134.8kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.8 6.9 6.9
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 10 km
Center Temp : -23.4C Cloud Region Temp : -75.4C
Scene Type : EYE
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 03 OCT 2016 Time : 234500 UTC
Lat : 16:35:09 N Lon : 74:34:15 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.8 / 926.5mb/134.8kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.8 6.9 6.9
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 10 km
Center Temp : -23.4C Cloud Region Temp : -75.4C
Scene Type : EYE
0 likes
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 4 guests