ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#4741 Postby weathaguyry » Mon Oct 03, 2016 7:34 pm

If anybody is interested, Force 13 is doing a live segment on youtube, and they are taking questions too!
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#4742 Postby Weatherboy1 » Mon Oct 03, 2016 7:39 pm

Well at this point all I can do is hope the middle of the night global model runs stop and/or reverse the westward trend. If not, or if they shift even further west, it'll be time to go into full on prep mode tomorrow!
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#4743 Postby floridasun78 » Mon Oct 03, 2016 7:39 pm

ok this remind me andrew coming from south i bet publix little busy for mon night when people see that hurr on tv us in cone
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#4744 Postby sponger » Mon Oct 03, 2016 7:41 pm

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=200

NAVGEM went from hr 66 to 144. I missed the best part!
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#4745 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Oct 03, 2016 7:41 pm

wind field has grown quite a bit.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#4746 Postby Michele B » Mon Oct 03, 2016 7:42 pm

HurricaneBelle wrote:
Michele B wrote:The only reason I'm still beating on this is because right now he's the ONLY LOCAL MET that i would believe! HE CALLED CHARLEY'S TURN EAST when everyone else was saying, "Going to Tampa!!!"

Now he's sounding like he has no idea about these things.....



Eh, unless he was calling it the day before, calling Charley's further east turn before the NHC got around to it was not exactly a mean feat. It was apparent by about 9-10 AM on the day it was approaching Florida that Charley had gone as far west as he was going to go and already had starting losing longitude relative to the Tampa Bay area. As someone in the bullseye at the time, I noticed this myself watching satellite and radar and several of the mets here in the Tampa Bay area made the same observation on their late morning/noontime news reports. The problem was that the NHC stuck to its guns on the track with the 11AM advisory when it was already obvious Charley was going in further east (and hence further south) along the coast and it wasn't until 1-2 PM that they acknowledged the obvious with a special advisory.


No, you're right, he wasn't calling it the day before. But he DID call it before noon on Friday when everyone else kept saying, "Going to Tampa!" even AS IT WAS OBVIOUSLY TURNING EAST!!! Gave me plenty of time to get everything boarded up. As it was, if it was going to Tampa, I was only going to board up on the side of the winds we would have gotten (south and east side), but once it was clear it was turning, I had plenty of time to get it all done!

I' ve seen him do really GOOD analysis of storms and their structure, and the systems that will steer them, etc., so it was really shocking that he said such a thing today.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#4747 Postby WeatherHoon » Mon Oct 03, 2016 7:42 pm

Would like to hear an update from Levi. Hopefully he does a video tonight.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#4748 Postby AdamFirst » Mon Oct 03, 2016 7:42 pm

Live with Jeff Berardelli (CBS 12 West Palm chief meteorologist), says the 00z model suite just came in and the bulk of the group has shifted to the west...again.

On now: https://www.facebook.com/CBS12News/post ... 8334107941
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#4749 Postby robbielyn » Mon Oct 03, 2016 7:43 pm

sponger wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:
snowpocalypse wrote:
Anybody catch the 'hurricane song' on this station? I love the laid back forecast discussion
just heard it..thats how they roll in the carib..deal with the cane and move forward


They are talking about keeping a window on the opposite side open to relieve pressure so your house won't pop. Anyone want to take stab at verifying if that is a good idea?

very bad idea. old wives tale, doesn't work, lag time in getting to safety and flying debris does more damage to you or your house
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#4750 Postby Ken711 » Mon Oct 03, 2016 7:43 pm

How much of the high mountain terrain will Matthew be over on Cuba?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#4751 Postby Evenstar » Mon Oct 03, 2016 7:44 pm

HurricaneBelle wrote:
GCANE wrote:Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
RAGGED EYEWALL WITH KYDNEY SHAPED EYE


Is "kydney" some kind of British spelling, like "tyre"?


On behalf of all Anglophiles who grew up watching Masterpiece Theatre (and other classic Brit offerings), I must say the following:
That is hilarious.

Kudos aside, your question is perfectly reasonable. After all, we are talking about an island kingdom where potato chips are crisps, french fries are chips and cookies are biscuits.

(I'm not being a hater. I've lived there twice and I'm an ardent Anglophile.)
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#4752 Postby gatorcane » Mon Oct 03, 2016 7:45 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:wind field has grown quite a bit.


Yep and looks like the WEST side has plenty of deep convection too even more than the east at the moment.

Image
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#4753 Postby Frank P » Mon Oct 03, 2016 7:45 pm

This really disturbs me, I really feel the death toll on Haiti will be catastrophic with this storm.... looks like it will be a direct hit with the eye and the dreaded east side of the storm, and perhaps one of the strongest storms ever to hit the island... just so tragic.... they will need a plethora of help recovering as well.... oh my.... starting to get flashbacks from Katrina all over again... very sad for all affected..
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#4754 Postby ThetaE » Mon Oct 03, 2016 7:48 pm

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#4755 Postby SunnyThoughts » Mon Oct 03, 2016 7:49 pm

Frank P wrote:This really disturbs me, I really feel the death toll on Haiti will be catastrophic with this storm.... looks like it will be a direct hit with the eye and the dreaded east side of the storm, and perhaps one of the strongest storms ever to hit the island... just so tragic.... they will need a plethora of help recovering as well.... oh my.... starting to get flashbacks from Katrina all over again... very sad for all affected..


I feel the same way Frank. I put in for vacation over a month ago for this week, and Im spending a lot of my time watching this all unfold. I'm a little nauseated from worry about everyone in Haiti, cuba as well as everyone along the Eastern coast of the Conus. Please PLEASE be prepared for this storm, it doesn't take much time to be prepared, and if in the end you really didn't need to, well then you wasted a little time doing something constructive, but if you do, it may save your life.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#4756 Postby floridasun78 » Mon Oct 03, 2016 7:50 pm

so look will get close to plam beach more and Miami what he saying on Facebook
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#4757 Postby Weatherboy1 » Mon Oct 03, 2016 7:50 pm

That CDO expansion sure is something to see - getting much larger here. Ugh
Last edited by Weatherboy1 on Mon Oct 03, 2016 7:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#4758 Postby AdamFirst » Mon Oct 03, 2016 7:50 pm

ripped from the CBS 12 live stream - their in house wind gust projection tool using the 18z GFS data

Image
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#4759 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Oct 03, 2016 7:50 pm

recon showing its intensified again.. lol
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#4760 Postby Ntxw » Mon Oct 03, 2016 7:52 pm

Even ADT is showing some strengthening

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 03 OCT 2016 Time : 234500 UTC
Lat : 16:35:09 N Lon : 74:34:15 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.8 / 926.5mb/134.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.8 6.9 6.9


Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 10 km

Center Temp : -23.4C Cloud Region Temp : -75.4C

Scene Type : EYE
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