ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion
AxaltaRacing24 wrote:TS wind prob - 80%
that's the right product to be looking at IMO. Those risks have gone way up so the increased concern is very warranted.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion
TS and or Hurricane watches likely will be issued tomorrow morning for portions of the peninsula and the Keys
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion
northjaxpro wrote:It may seem like we are quiet, but I think everyone is watching for the 11:00 advisory. Trust me everyone is here I can assure you
Posted a few pages back. Best way to prepare for this in St Augustine? Evacuate? Water? Thank you in advance!!
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion
Looks like NHC wants to wait until 5am to make a decision on watches/warnings for Florida coast. Don't blame them, but it's cutting it close.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion
11 PM disco
Beyond 48
hours, the GFS has again trended westward, and now lies closer to
the UKMET model track. This change might be related to the
mid-/upper-level trough currently located over the eastern Gulf of
Mexico, which is now forecast to split, with the northern portion
lifting out to the northeast and dissipating while the southern
portion cuts of into a low pressure system that drops southward over
the northwestern Caribbean Sea by 36-48 hours. The new track
forecast has again been shifted westward closer to Florida, and lies
near a blend of the 18Z GFS and 12Z ECMWF model solutions.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion
AxaltaRacing24 wrote:TS wind prob - 80%
Where exactly?
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Irene '99, Katrina '05, Wilma '05, Irma '17 (storms I remember my area getting hurricane force winds/gusts).
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and shouldn't be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the experts.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and shouldn't be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the experts.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion
HurricaneEric wrote:AxaltaRacing24 wrote:TS wind prob - 80%
Where exactly?
Towards the northern end of Palm Beach County and Martin county. Overall the treasure coast and Palm Beach County are more likely than not to face TS winds.
Last edited by AxaltaRacing24 on Mon Oct 03, 2016 10:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion
I have family near Cooper City, in Broward. They are pretty far inland, what should they do to prepare?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion
HDGator wrote:Steve H. wrote:Yeah, Stacy Stewart is the best. I thought he retired.
Stacy Stewart is the best! He just took some time off from forecasting killer hurricanes to earn a Bronze Star on 80+ combat missions in Afghanistan.
A true American Hero!
I had no idea of his service. A great American! Thank you Mr Stewart!
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/staff/Stewart_bio_2015.pdf
Last edited by sponger on Mon Oct 03, 2016 10:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion
JPmia wrote:Looks like NHC wants to wait until 5am to make a decision on watches/warnings for Florida coast. Don't blame them, but it's cutting it close.
Not really. 5am is entering the 48 hour window for expected impacts. Now would be a bit too early.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion
psyclone wrote:AxaltaRacing24 wrote:TS wind prob - 80%
that's the right product to be looking at IMO. Those risks have gone way up so the increased concern is very warranted.
Note also there is some risk of hurricane force winds from SE NC all the way to south FL. a massive stretch of coastline threatened.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion
tigerz3030 wrote:northjaxpro wrote:It may seem like we are quiet, but I think everyone is watching for the 11:00 advisory. Trust me everyone is here I can assure you
Posted a few pages back. Best way to prepare for this in St Augustine? Evacuate? Water? Thank you in advance!!
You guys are fairly close to the state line, so if it were me, I'd start some basic prepping to hunker down with a back up plan to evacuate pending on the wind probabilities tomorrow. At least that what I'm doing down here in Brevard.
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I'm not a meteorologist, but I did stay at a motel 8.
Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion
The expect weakening due to shear as it approaches Florida so maybe a bit of good news there.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion
Will boca raton, delray and boynton beach get hurricane force winds.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion
weathaguyry wrote:I have family near Cooper City, in Broward. They are pretty far inland, what should they do to prepare?
Fuel all vehicles, make sure hurricans supplies up to date (canned food/water)
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion
11 PM Wind Speed Probabilities
West Palm - 72% overall chance of TS winds, 38% damaging TS winds, 20% hurricane winds
Fort Pierce - 70% overall chance of TS winds, 36% damaging TS winds, 18% hurricane winds
Code: Select all
FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 46(48) 19(67) 3(70)
FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 15(33) 3(36)
FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 9(17) 1(18)
W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 50(55) 15(70) 2(72)
W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 12(36) 2(38)
W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 8(19) 1(20)
West Palm - 72% overall chance of TS winds, 38% damaging TS winds, 20% hurricane winds
Fort Pierce - 70% overall chance of TS winds, 36% damaging TS winds, 18% hurricane winds
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion
Evil Jeremy wrote:JPmia wrote:Looks like NHC wants to wait until 5am to make a decision on watches/warnings for Florida coast. Don't blame them, but it's cutting it close.
Not really. 5am is entering the 48 hour window for expected impacts. Now would be a bit too early.
You're right.. slower arrival time.. This approach to Florida is very similar to the worst case scenario that they all practice each year at the FL EOC.. let's hope it's not a reality.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion
adam0983 wrote:Will boca raton, delray and boynton beach get hurricane force winds.
Don't go by what is posted here on that. Go by NHC watches and warnings.
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