ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SunnyThoughts]

Winds up to 145

[AxaltaRacing24]

TS wind prob - 80%

[psyclone]

TS wind prob - 80%

that's the right product to be looking at IMO. Those risks have gone way up so the increased concern is very warranted.

[caneseddy]

TS and or Hurricane watches likely will be issued tomorrow morning for portions of the peninsula and the Keys

[tigerz3030]

It may seem like we are quiet, but I think everyone is watching for the 11:00 advisory. Trust me everyone is here I can assure you

Posted a few pages back. Best way to prepare for this in St Augustine? Evacuate? Water? Thank you in advance!!

[JPmia]

Looks like NHC wants to wait until 5am to make a decision on watches/warnings for Florida coast. Don't blame them, but it's cutting it close.

[AdamFirst]

11 PM disco

Beyond 48
hours, the GFS has again trended westward, and now lies closer to
the UKMET model track. This change might be related to the
mid-/upper-level trough currently located over the eastern Gulf of
Mexico, which is now forecast to split, with the northern portion
lifting out to the northeast and dissipating while the southern
portion cuts of into a low pressure system that drops southward over
the northwestern Caribbean Sea by 36-48 hours. The new track
forecast has again been shifted westward closer to Florida, and lies
near a blend of the 18Z GFS and 12Z ECMWF model solutions.

[HurricaneEric]

TS wind prob - 80%

Where exactly?

[AxaltaRacing24]

TS wind prob - 80%

Where exactly?

Towards the northern end of Palm Beach County and Martin county. Overall the treasure coast and Palm Beach County are more likely than not to face TS winds.

[weathaguyry]

I have family near Cooper City, in Broward. They are pretty far inland, what should they do to prepare?

[sponger]

Yeah, Stacy Stewart is the best. I thought he retired.

Stacy Stewart is the best! He just took some time off from forecasting killer hurricanes to earn a Bronze Star on 80+ combat missions in Afghanistan.

A true American Hero!

I had no idea of his service. A great American! Thank you Mr Stewart!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/staff/Stewart_bio_2015.pdf

[Evil Jeremy]

Looks like NHC wants to wait until 5am to make a decision on watches/warnings for Florida coast. Don't blame them, but it's cutting it close.

Not really. 5am is entering the 48 hour window for expected impacts. Now would be a bit too early.

[psyclone]

TS wind prob - 80%

that's the right product to be looking at IMO. Those risks have gone way up so the increased concern is very warranted.

Note also there is some risk of hurricane force winds from SE NC all the way to south FL. a massive stretch of coastline threatened.

[CFLHurricane]

It may seem like we are quiet, but I think everyone is watching for the 11:00 advisory. Trust me everyone is here I can assure you

Posted a few pages back. Best way to prepare for this in St Augustine? Evacuate? Water? Thank you in advance!!

You guys are fairly close to the state line, so if it were me, I'd start some basic prepping to hunker down with a back up plan to evacuate pending on the wind probabilities tomorrow. At least that what I'm doing down here in Brevard.

[caneman]

The expect weakening due to shear as it approaches Florida so maybe a bit of good news there.

[adam0983]

Will boca raton, delray and boynton beach get hurricane force winds.

[got ants?]

I have family near Cooper City, in Broward. They are pretty far inland, what should they do to prepare?

Fuel all vehicles, make sure hurricans supplies up to date (canned food/water)

[AdamFirst]

11 PM Wind Speed Probabilities

Code: Select all

FT PIERCE FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  46(48)  19(67)   3(70)
FT PIERCE FL   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  18(18)  15(33)   3(36)
FT PIERCE FL   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   9(17)   1(18)

W PALM BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  50(55)  15(70)   2(72)
W PALM BEACH   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  24(24)  12(36)   2(38)
W PALM BEACH   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)   8(19)   1(20)

West Palm - 72% overall chance of TS winds, 38% damaging TS winds, 20% hurricane winds
Fort Pierce - 70% overall chance of TS winds, 36% damaging TS winds, 18% hurricane winds

[JPmia]

Looks like NHC wants to wait until 5am to make a decision on watches/warnings for Florida coast. Don't blame them, but it's cutting it close.

Not really. 5am is entering the 48 hour window for expected impacts. Now would be a bit too early.

You're right.. slower arrival time.. This approach to Florida is very similar to the worst case scenario that they all practice each year at the FL EOC.. let's hope it's not a reality.

[CourierPR]

Will boca raton, delray and boynton beach get hurricane force winds.

Don't go by what is posted here on that. Go by NHC watches and warnings.