ATL: MATTHEW - Models

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Blinhart
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5801 Postby Blinhart » Tue Oct 04, 2016 1:26 am

It isn't out to sea if it comes back and hit Maine, or Nova Scotia, so you guys saying OTS might not be at all correct. And land interaction will effect the speed and direction, we will not know for days to come.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5802 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Oct 04, 2016 1:26 am

NDG wrote:At least we are seeing good consistency now between the GFS and Euro through 72 hr in timing.
NHC might edge their track a little closer to the GFS model now that the Euro went a little to the left on this run.


Yeah EURO has moved in line with the GFS. As a matterof fact, now very similar now in agreement.

Well, it is serious prep time starting tomorrow that's for certain now!
Last edited by northjaxpro on Tue Oct 04, 2016 1:27 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5803 Postby WHYB630 » Tue Oct 04, 2016 1:27 am

ronyan wrote:
WHYB630 wrote:00z Euro t@120: trough looks a lot different than 00z GFS at the same frame (GFS: negative; EC: positive)
Expecting OTS next frame


It's pretty much academic at this point to say OTS when it's that close to the coast.


*** ENE movement :D
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5804 Postby TimeZone » Tue Oct 04, 2016 1:29 am

Euro has this thing weakening about as fast as any storm I've ever seen once it nears Carolina.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5805 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Oct 04, 2016 1:29 am

I am thinking landfall in the 96 hour timeframe from now.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5806 Postby NDG » Tue Oct 04, 2016 1:32 am

As if it acquires extropical characteristics after it leaves the NC coast.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5807 Postby ronyan » Tue Oct 04, 2016 1:32 am

northjaxpro wrote:I am thinking landfall in the 96 hour timeframe from now.


It's possible...let's see if the westward shifts continue into tomorrow.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5808 Postby WHYB630 » Tue Oct 04, 2016 1:33 am

Ex-TC @ 144hrs
Image
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5809 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Oct 04, 2016 1:35 am

very tricky situation.. cant wait to see what happens when I wake up lol
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5810 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Tue Oct 04, 2016 1:38 am

Image
EC@120HRS pineye clipper.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5811 Postby chaser1 » Tue Oct 04, 2016 1:41 am

WHYB630 wrote:Ex-TC @ 144hrs
Image


Huh? Look! It's Matthews Tumor - it's back :ggreen:
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5812 Postby ronyan » Tue Oct 04, 2016 1:50 am

The next frame shows it near Nova Scotia.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5813 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Tue Oct 04, 2016 2:00 am

Image
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5814 Postby Hammy » Tue Oct 04, 2016 2:23 am

Anybody with the fullres Euro maps, what are the strongest winds Cape Canaveral looks to get on this run?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5815 Postby adam0983 » Tue Oct 04, 2016 3:30 am

What winds would boca raton get with this Euro run
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5816 Postby USTropics » Tue Oct 04, 2016 3:33 am

Here is the visual graphic for the 00z Ukmet run through 108 hours:

Image
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5817 Postby tolakram » Tue Oct 04, 2016 3:37 am

Hammy wrote:Anybody with the fullres Euro maps, what are the strongest winds Cape Canaveral looks to get on this run?


952mb when it passes, looks like close to 50 kts. Landfall near Morehead City / Cape Lookout at 960mb 60kts.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5818 Postby USTropics » Tue Oct 04, 2016 3:39 am

Animated image of the 00z Ukmet:

Image
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5819 Postby Blinhart » Tue Oct 04, 2016 3:47 am

USTropics wrote:Animated image of the 00z Ukmet:

Image


Interesting what happens with Nicole on that.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5820 Postby jlauderdal » Tue Oct 04, 2016 4:30 am

OuterBanker wrote:Some mornings it really doesn't pay to get up. Darn if the NHC put a H right on top of my house and business at the 5am advisory. And to add insult to injury it's in the middle of the night. :darrow:
actually be happy..its very rare that they would verify this far out..yesterday morning the center was 250 east of sofla and now its 120 and trending west..will see how the gfs run does coming up, maybe the westward is done but i doubt it
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