ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hurrilurker]

Does NHC issue watches and warnings at intermediate advisories? Or only at the "main" ones?

Yes, they can at any time if warranted. They can even issue special advisories with watches/warnings if the situation is dire enough.

[La Sirena]

they want one more run of the gfs...there is a huge difference in terms of tropical vs hurricane in terms of evacs for keys and into miami...i suspect tropical storm watches/warnings upper keys all they to at least deerfield beach..they are cutting it close but they hoist hurricane watches/warnings the monetary expense skyrockets..lets see how the handle it

I told my husband last night that they would have to evacuate the Keys today if that was going to happen. And the mandatory checkpoint at MM 106 just to leave with your pets will slow this wayyyyy down. Governor Scott and EMA have a tough call to make quick.

[GCANE]

[Madpoodle]

The 5am track shifted east over Grand Bahama Island a little.

not sure why you think it went east


Most of the
dynamical models shows a track near the east coast of Florida
and the southeast United States from days 3 through 5. The NHC
track is largely unchanged through 48 hours, but has been adjusted
slightly westward after that time, and is close to the consensus
of the ECMWF and GFS. Users are reminded not to focus on the exact
forecast track since strong winds, heavy rainfall, and a dangerous
storm surge will extend far from the center of Matthew.

Actually, last night it was 109 miles from my house in Miami according to http://www.stormcarib.com/closest.cgi Today it's 119 miles. Not much, and I would WAY rather see it @ 319 miles, but every little bit helps!!

[bob rulz]

So no more recon before Haiti landfall?? It certainly looks like it's intensifying again, the eye has really cleared out and there's a noticeable stadium effect becoming visible (I'm looking at the water vapor). It looks like it's making a run for cat 5, although I doubt there's enough time for it to get there.

[northjaxpro]

Matthew's eye and inner core is expected to pass through the Windward Passage hardly unscathed from any interaction from Haiti. This. also, it looks as if it will barely go over the extreme eastern tip of Cuba. If somehow it missed Cuba, he will beback at Cat 5 strength. Just very bad to potentially catastrophic for the Bahamas and later Florida.

I think it is quite possible that Matthew may make one last run at being a Cat 5 while moving through the Bahamas.


This is the worst scenario for the Bahamas.

[GCANE]

Significant jog east of the Forecast Points

[USTropics]

Saved loop from Guantanamo radar:



link here - http://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php?rid=gmo&product=N0R&loop=yes

[tolakram]

ir loop

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=14&lon=-75&info=ir&zoom=2&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir2.pal&numframes=30&mapcolor=yellow&map=latlon

[Kazmit]

Close to landfall now...

[jlauderdal]

let see what the trip through passage does to the structure...unpredictable things have happened in the past when these systems move through these areas...stalls, more weakening than expected, course changes, etc...if we get a stall which is unlikely while its around the mountains who knows but its really the last shot before a run into the bahamas and the usa..the setup looks very favorable for a major in the Bahamas approaching Florida so if it weakens it can quickly come back and as a reminder, the land in the Bahamas is flat so no hope there for a reduction intensity, think steamroller over ant hills

im getting 50 gallons of gas this morning and completing the store purchase...waiting until at least this afternoon to hang shutters..it does look like it will stay to our north but just a few hours of more westerly motion than forecast and its onshore south of palm beach..not a fan of storing gasoline and hope i dont need it but waiting in lines is a massive waste of valuable time..good luck with your preps fla, ga, sc, nc

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Potentially a catastrophic scenario unfolding for Haiti this morning. Looks like a 130 knot Cat 4 moving into the western tip of Haiti.

[Harrycane]

http://www.meteo-haiti.gouv.ht/

Haiti National Weather Centre for those interested.

[JPmia]

It's about to directly hit the Tiburon Peninsula mountains. I believe there is a 7,000ft peak on one of them.. Let's see what that does to Matthew's circulation.

[tolakram]

they want one more run of the gfs...there is a huge difference in terms of tropical vs hurricane in terms of evacs for keys and into miami...i suspect tropical storm watches/warnings upper keys all they to at least deerfield beach..they are cutting it close but they hoist hurricane watches/warnings the monetary expense skyrockets..lets see how the handle it

I told my husband last night that they would have to evacuate the Keys today if that was going to happen. And the mandatory checkpoint at MM 106 just to leave with your pets will slow this wayyyyy down. Governor Scott and EMA have a tough call to make quick.

Do you have any official information concerning evacuations and checkpoints? I see no reason to evacuate the keys nor have heard of any plans. With information coming in from all corners I urge people to provide official sources or we will have to remove posts to prevent false rumors from spreading.

[jlauderdal]

they want one more run of the gfs...there is a huge difference in terms of tropical vs hurricane in terms of evacs for keys and into miami...i suspect tropical storm watches/warnings upper keys all they to at least deerfield beach..they are cutting it close but they hoist hurricane watches/warnings the monetary expense skyrockets..lets see how the handle it

I told my husband last night that they would have to evacuate the Keys today if that was going to happen. And the mandatory checkpoint at MM 106 just to leave with your pets will slow this wayyyyy down. Governor Scott and EMA have a tough call to make quick.

i think they go tropical storm designation upper keys and avoid the evacuation..modeling just doesn't support it anything more and thats a good thing..its a real mission to evacuate and takes two days to accomplish the goal

[Floridagal]

Close to landfall now...

Could not sleep thinking of this and the people of Haiti.

Surprised to see Matthew's convective goiter blob still hanging strong. What an incredible thing.

[jlauderdal]

they want one more run of the gfs...there is a huge difference in terms of tropical vs hurricane in terms of evacs for keys and into miami...i suspect tropical storm watches/warnings upper keys all they to at least deerfield beach..they are cutting it close but they hoist hurricane watches/warnings the monetary expense skyrockets..lets see how the handle it

I told my husband last night that they would have to evacuate the Keys today if that was going to happen. And the mandatory checkpoint at MM 106 just to leave with your pets will slow this wayyyyy down. Governor Scott and EMA have a tough call to make quick.

Do you have any official information concerning evacuations and checkpoints? I see no reason to evacuate the keys nor have heard of any plans. With information coming in from all corners I urge people to provide official sources or we will have to remove posts to prevent false rumors from spreading.

the poster said if it was going to happen they would need to start today and that is absolutely correct...there is am andatory animal checkpoint in place not related to the hurricane

[Hypercane_Kyle]

AF303 currently enroute.

[GCANE]

VIIRS Instrument on board Suomi NPP.
It allows for satellite views in the visible portion of the electromagnetic spectrum at night.
The nighttime light source is the Moon (if it is above the horizon), or airglow if not (or if the Moon is new).

Mesospheric airglow gravity waves evident: