ATL: MATTHEW - Models
Moderator: S2k Moderators
- HurricaneBelle
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1179
- Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 6:12 pm
- Location: Clearwater, FL
Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
It missed Puerto Rico the first time around, so this 00Z GFS run seems to think it's coming back to finish the job.
2 likes
-
- Admin
- Posts: 20010
- Age: 62
- Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
- Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)
Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

0 likes
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
- AdamFirst
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 2491
- Age: 36
- Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2008 10:54 am
- Location: Port Saint Lucie, FL
Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
Miami Storm Tracker wrote:A little off topic sorry Mod's,
Just got back to Miami form Key Largo, securing things. Missed all of the runs how do we stand as far as Dade county goes , thanks in advance for the up date.
GFS has trended slightly further west - I believe TS conditions are all but assured at this juncture for Miami-Dade, unless it makes a landfall farther south and gets Dade closer to the core of the storm. It's cutting it very close.
Meanwhile, the current run of the GFS has Matthew taking a U-Turn in the long range, picking up on the EURO trend from earlier.
Last edited by AdamFirst on Tue Oct 04, 2016 11:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
Dolphins Marlins Canes Golden Panthers HEAT
Andrew 1992 - Irene 1999 - Frances 2004 - Jeanne 2004 - Wilma 2005 - Fay 2008 - Isaac 2012 - Matthew 2016 - Irma 2017 - Dorian 2019 - Ian 2022 - Nicole 2022 - Milton 2024
Andrew 1992 - Irene 1999 - Frances 2004 - Jeanne 2004 - Wilma 2005 - Fay 2008 - Isaac 2012 - Matthew 2016 - Irma 2017 - Dorian 2019 - Ian 2022 - Nicole 2022 - Milton 2024
-
- Admin
- Posts: 20010
- Age: 62
- Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
- Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)
Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

0 likes
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 7183
- Joined: Wed May 19, 2004 5:46 am
- Location: NE Fort Lauderdale
- Contact:
Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
its trending west...dade facing a hurricane warning IMOMiami Storm Tracker wrote:A little off topic sorry Mod's,
Just got back to Miami form Key Largo, securing things. Missed all of the runs how do we stand as far as Dade county goes , thanks in advance for the up date.
0 likes
- Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 15981
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
Alyono wrote:Kingarabian wrote:If that loop verifies, I think 70 ACE units from Matthew is not out the question.
if the loop occurs as an intense hurricane, 100 ACE is in play
But looks like it's getting blasted by shear. Convection seems to be misplaced to the west and N/NW quads.
0 likes
RIP Kobe Bryant
-
- Admin
- Posts: 20010
- Age: 62
- Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
- Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)
Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
UKMET shows loop
ECMWF shows loop
GFS shows loop
ECMWF shows loop
GFS shows loop
0 likes
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
- gatorcane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 23691
- Age: 47
- Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
- Location: Boca Raton, FL
Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
Yeah why not hit Florida twice with the same storm is what the GFS is hinting at with that loop!
0 likes
- p1nheadlarry
- Category 2
- Posts: 672
- Age: 33
- Joined: Wed Jan 29, 2014 2:42 pm
- Location: SR County FL
Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
UKMET to ECMWF to GFS consensus on the loop as we head into October 5th. Crazy with the evacuations and school cancellations already in place in some of the Carolinas if it verified.
1 likes
--;->#GoNoles--;->.
Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
Mouton wrote:Bastardi was talking about a loop earlier this week. Frankly I have seen enough of Matt and it has not been here for its first run yet. Hope it goes to hell.
Well, I'm afraid it's coming straight from there!
0 likes
- PTrackerLA
- Category 5
- Posts: 5277
- Age: 41
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 8:40 pm
- Location: Lafayette, LA
Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
Good grief this is just ridiculous, looks like it could get pushed west under another high?
0 likes
-
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 146
- Age: 30
- Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2015 11:06 am
- Location: Miami, FL
Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
AdamFirst wrote:Miami Storm Tracker wrote:A little off topic sorry Mod's,
Just got back to Miami form Key Largo, securing things. Missed all of the runs how do we stand as far as Dade county goes , thanks in advance for the up date.
GFS has trended slightly further west - I believe TS conditions are all but assured at this juncture for Miami-Dade, unless it makes a landfall farther south and gets Dade closer to the core of the storm. It's cutting it very close.
Meanwhile, the current run of the GFS has Matthew taking a U-Turn in the long range, picking up on the EURO trend from earlier.
Yup, TS Wind Probabilities were already at 60-70% for Northern half of Dade County before this GFS run. Would venture to say it'd go up another 10-20% after that.
0 likes
Irene '99, Katrina '05, Wilma '05, Irma '17 (storms I remember my area getting hurricane force winds/gusts).
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and shouldn't be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the experts.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and shouldn't be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the experts.
Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
Or the Bahamas. I'm sure they'll be absolutely thrilled with this development.
0 likes
- SFLcane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 10163
- Age: 47
- Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
- Location: Lake Worth Florida
Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
If euro the same dade will likely go under hurricane warning id think. I do though expect track shift west again sadly
0 likes
- MississippiWx
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1699
- Joined: Sat Aug 14, 2010 1:44 pm
- Location: Hattiesburg, Mississippi
Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
I didn't think the loop idea was so far fetched when the UKMET and Euro both had it...
GFS shows a pretty solid upper level environment hanging around for the loop...
GFS shows a pretty solid upper level environment hanging around for the loop...
0 likes
This post is not an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of MississippiWx and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- Evil Jeremy
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 5463
- Age: 32
- Joined: Mon Apr 10, 2006 2:10 pm
- Location: Los Angeles, CA
Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
tolakram wrote:UKMET shows loop
ECMWF shows loop
GFS shows loop
Sure, why not. After all, Matthew has defied conventional wisdom thus far!
1 likes
Frances 04 / Jeanne 04 / Katrina 05 / Wilma 05 / Fay 08 / Debby 12 / Andrea 13 / Colin 16 / Hermine 16 / Matthew 16 / Irma 17
- HurricaneBelle
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1179
- Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 6:12 pm
- Location: Clearwater, FL
- SouthernBreeze
- Category 1
- Posts: 284
- Age: 68
- Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 4:54 pm
- Location: SC/NC line- on the SC Coast
Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
This could not be good! I would imagine at some point after looping gonna have to go N or NE again - better not go W
0 likes
My posts are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. It's just my opinion and not backed by sound meteorological data, and NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
grazed by many - most wind damage: Hugo (pre-cellphone days!) & most water: Floyd
grazed by many - most wind damage: Hugo (pre-cellphone days!) & most water: Floyd
Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
This is like a forecaster's nightmare.
If a looping TS gives them headaches, then the headache for looping MH is x1000000 times worse
If a looping TS gives them headaches, then the headache for looping MH is x1000000 times worse

0 likes
- galaxy401
- Category 5
- Posts: 2419
- Age: 30
- Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:04 pm
- Location: Casa Grande, Arizona
Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models


How much of a role can Nicole have on this "loop" depending on how strong she gets?
0 likes
Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 5 guests