ATL: MATTHEW - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
HurricaneBelle
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1179
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 6:12 pm
Location: Clearwater, FL

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6561 Postby HurricaneBelle » Tue Oct 04, 2016 11:15 pm

It missed Puerto Rico the first time around, so this 00Z GFS run seems to think it's coming back to finish the job.
2 likes   

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20010
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6562 Postby tolakram » Tue Oct 04, 2016 11:15 pm

Image
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
AdamFirst
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2491
Age: 36
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2008 10:54 am
Location: Port Saint Lucie, FL

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6563 Postby AdamFirst » Tue Oct 04, 2016 11:15 pm

Miami Storm Tracker wrote:A little off topic sorry Mod's,

Just got back to Miami form Key Largo, securing things. Missed all of the runs how do we stand as far as Dade county goes , thanks in advance for the up date.


GFS has trended slightly further west - I believe TS conditions are all but assured at this juncture for Miami-Dade, unless it makes a landfall farther south and gets Dade closer to the core of the storm. It's cutting it very close.

Meanwhile, the current run of the GFS has Matthew taking a U-Turn in the long range, picking up on the EURO trend from earlier.
Last edited by AdamFirst on Tue Oct 04, 2016 11:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Dolphins Marlins Canes Golden Panthers HEAT
Andrew 1992 - Irene 1999 - Frances 2004 - Jeanne 2004 - Wilma 2005 - Fay 2008 - Isaac 2012 - Matthew 2016 - Irma 2017 - Dorian 2019 - Ian 2022 - Nicole 2022 - Milton 2024

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20010
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6564 Postby tolakram » Tue Oct 04, 2016 11:16 pm

Image
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

jlauderdal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 7183
Joined: Wed May 19, 2004 5:46 am
Location: NE Fort Lauderdale
Contact:

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6565 Postby jlauderdal » Tue Oct 04, 2016 11:16 pm

Miami Storm Tracker wrote:A little off topic sorry Mod's,

Just got back to Miami form Key Largo, securing things. Missed all of the runs how do we stand as far as Dade county goes , thanks in advance for the up date.
its trending west...dade facing a hurricane warning IMO
0 likes   

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15981
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6566 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Oct 04, 2016 11:16 pm

Alyono wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:If that loop verifies, I think 70 ACE units from Matthew is not out the question.



if the loop occurs as an intense hurricane, 100 ACE is in play


But looks like it's getting blasted by shear. Convection seems to be misplaced to the west and N/NW quads.
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20010
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6567 Postby tolakram » Tue Oct 04, 2016 11:16 pm

UKMET shows loop
ECMWF shows loop
GFS shows loop
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23691
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6568 Postby gatorcane » Tue Oct 04, 2016 11:17 pm

Yeah why not hit Florida twice with the same storm is what the GFS is hinting at with that loop!
0 likes   

User avatar
p1nheadlarry
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 672
Age: 33
Joined: Wed Jan 29, 2014 2:42 pm
Location: SR County FL

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6569 Postby p1nheadlarry » Tue Oct 04, 2016 11:17 pm

UKMET to ECMWF to GFS consensus on the loop as we head into October 5th. Crazy with the evacuations and school cancellations already in place in some of the Carolinas if it verified.
1 likes   
--;->#GoNoles--;->.

stormreader

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6570 Postby stormreader » Tue Oct 04, 2016 11:17 pm

Mouton wrote:Bastardi was talking about a loop earlier this week. Frankly I have seen enough of Matt and it has not been here for its first run yet. Hope it goes to hell.

Well, I'm afraid it's coming straight from there!
0 likes   

User avatar
PTrackerLA
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5277
Age: 41
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 8:40 pm
Location: Lafayette, LA

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6571 Postby PTrackerLA » Tue Oct 04, 2016 11:17 pm

Good grief this is just ridiculous, looks like it could get pushed west under another high?
0 likes   

HurricaneEric
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 146
Age: 30
Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2015 11:06 am
Location: Miami, FL

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6572 Postby HurricaneEric » Tue Oct 04, 2016 11:18 pm

AdamFirst wrote:
Miami Storm Tracker wrote:A little off topic sorry Mod's,

Just got back to Miami form Key Largo, securing things. Missed all of the runs how do we stand as far as Dade county goes , thanks in advance for the up date.


GFS has trended slightly further west - I believe TS conditions are all but assured at this juncture for Miami-Dade, unless it makes a landfall farther south and gets Dade closer to the core of the storm. It's cutting it very close.

Meanwhile, the current run of the GFS has Matthew taking a U-Turn in the long range, picking up on the EURO trend from earlier.


Yup, TS Wind Probabilities were already at 60-70% for Northern half of Dade County before this GFS run. Would venture to say it'd go up another 10-20% after that.
0 likes   
Irene '99, Katrina '05, Wilma '05, Irma '17 (storms I remember my area getting hurricane force winds/gusts).

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and shouldn't be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the experts.

Raebie
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 822
Joined: Fri Sep 12, 2003 8:00 pm
Location: Charlotte, NC

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6573 Postby Raebie » Tue Oct 04, 2016 11:18 pm

Or the Bahamas. I'm sure they'll be absolutely thrilled with this development.
0 likes   

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10163
Age: 47
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6574 Postby SFLcane » Tue Oct 04, 2016 11:18 pm

If euro the same dade will likely go under hurricane warning id think. I do though expect track shift west again sadly
0 likes   

User avatar
MississippiWx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1699
Joined: Sat Aug 14, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Hattiesburg, Mississippi

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6575 Postby MississippiWx » Tue Oct 04, 2016 11:18 pm

I didn't think the loop idea was so far fetched when the UKMET and Euro both had it...

GFS shows a pretty solid upper level environment hanging around for the loop...
0 likes   
This post is not an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of MississippiWx and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Evil Jeremy
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5463
Age: 32
Joined: Mon Apr 10, 2006 2:10 pm
Location: Los Angeles, CA

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6576 Postby Evil Jeremy » Tue Oct 04, 2016 11:18 pm

tolakram wrote:UKMET shows loop
ECMWF shows loop
GFS shows loop


Sure, why not. After all, Matthew has defied conventional wisdom thus far!
1 likes   
Frances 04 / Jeanne 04 / Katrina 05 / Wilma 05 / Fay 08 / Debby 12 / Andrea 13 / Colin 16 / Hermine 16 / Matthew 16 / Irma 17

User avatar
HurricaneBelle
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1179
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 6:12 pm
Location: Clearwater, FL

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6577 Postby HurricaneBelle » Tue Oct 04, 2016 11:18 pm

This GFS run is Matthew 2: Electric Boogaloo
3 likes   

User avatar
SouthernBreeze
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 284
Age: 68
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 4:54 pm
Location: SC/NC line- on the SC Coast

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6578 Postby SouthernBreeze » Tue Oct 04, 2016 11:19 pm

This could not be good! I would imagine at some point after looping gonna have to go N or NE again - better not go W
0 likes   
My posts are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. It's just my opinion and not backed by sound meteorological data, and NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

grazed by many - most wind damage: Hugo (pre-cellphone days!) & most water: Floyd

WHYB630
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 80
Joined: Sat Oct 01, 2016 2:19 am

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6579 Postby WHYB630 » Tue Oct 04, 2016 11:19 pm

This is like a forecaster's nightmare.
If a looping TS gives them headaches, then the headache for looping MH is x1000000 times worse :double:
0 likes   

User avatar
galaxy401
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2419
Age: 30
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:04 pm
Location: Casa Grande, Arizona

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6580 Postby galaxy401 » Tue Oct 04, 2016 11:19 pm

:double: These models....Just bring up one crazy thing after another... :eek:

How much of a role can Nicole have on this "loop" depending on how strong she gets?
0 likes   
Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.


Return to “2016”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 5 guests