ATL: MATTHEW - Models

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WHYB630
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6821 Postby WHYB630 » Wed Oct 05, 2016 1:30 am

00z EC t@144: very similar to 00z GFS in term of track, but much waeker than GFS
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6822 Postby stormhunter7 » Wed Oct 05, 2016 1:30 am

tolakram wrote:Looking similar to the GFS run. 981mb heading SE @ 126h


Seems it would go west next... very weak TS, if that at all a tropical system 144hrs. 850mb vorticity still shows up, but shear looks very hostile.
Last edited by stormhunter7 on Wed Oct 05, 2016 1:34 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6823 Postby tolakram » Wed Oct 05, 2016 1:31 am

Moving nearly due south at 138 hours, 987mb
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6824 Postby Hurrilurker » Wed Oct 05, 2016 1:33 am

So either the GFS was not drunk, or they all got drunk together.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6825 Postby tolakram » Wed Oct 05, 2016 1:34 am

And here we go, starting to regain strength at 150 hours, 986mb
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6826 Postby wxmann_91 » Wed Oct 05, 2016 1:34 am

Westerly shear really weakens Matthew as it does the loop, and by hr 144 it looks like it's steered by the low-level flow southwestward. It'll be interesting to see if it can find itself in a low-shear environment further south and reintensify, which is what the GFS does.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6827 Postby Alyono » Wed Oct 05, 2016 1:35 am

starts to reintensify at 150 hours
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6828 Postby tolakram » Wed Oct 05, 2016 1:35 am

Location is 27N, 74W
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6829 Postby tolakram » Wed Oct 05, 2016 1:37 am

Too tired but after regaining some strength it weakens again. It may be sitting still.

Image
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6830 Postby stormhunter7 » Wed Oct 05, 2016 1:37 am

... and there is the west turn at 168hrs.. slow turn and very little movement to west back towards Bahamas
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6831 Postby wxmann_91 » Wed Oct 05, 2016 1:40 am

Trough in the northern GOM at hr 168 should turn Matthew back OTS again. But given how shallow Matthew is at that point and how weak that trough looks, well who knows. Models not too long ago had a sprawling ridge in the SE at that same time period.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6832 Postby tolakram » Wed Oct 05, 2016 1:41 am

It is literally zigzagging between 150 and 168 hours, alternating between 986mb and 992mb. I tell ya it looks like bad or funky data but who knows.

I'm going to bed.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6833 Postby HurricaneFrances04 » Wed Oct 05, 2016 1:42 am

NAVGEM kind of shows a loop near Jacksonville, before going back OTS.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6834 Postby stormhunter7 » Wed Oct 05, 2016 1:43 am

Now it's tracking NE OTS at 192hrs
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6835 Postby stormhunter7 » Wed Oct 05, 2016 1:47 am

So after 240hrs.... GFS is having resolution problems?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6836 Postby LarryWx » Wed Oct 05, 2016 1:50 am

0Z Euro may not be as hard a hit on the GA coast as was suggested by the 12Z run though it is hard to tell for sure due to not seeing any maps between 72 and 96 hours.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6837 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Wed Oct 05, 2016 2:36 am

Image

Image
00z
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6838 Postby NDG » Wed Oct 05, 2016 3:51 am

Just waking up, wow on the 0z GFS and some people were calling the 12z Euro crazy, lol.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6839 Postby tgenius » Wed Oct 05, 2016 4:17 am

The new GFS run should be about to start.. will be interesting I'm sure.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6840 Postby Sav_hurricane_hunter » Wed Oct 05, 2016 4:21 am

Are we seeing the start of a trend to the East and will the NHC shift Matthew track more & more East as day goes on?
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