ATL: MATTHEW - Models
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
00z EC t@144: very similar to 00z GFS in term of track, but much waeker than GFS
0 likes
- stormhunter7
- Category 2
- Posts: 762
- Joined: Mon May 26, 2008 3:13 pm
- Location: Panama City Beach, Florida
- Contact:
Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
tolakram wrote:Looking similar to the GFS run. 981mb heading SE @ 126h
Seems it would go west next... very weak TS, if that at all a tropical system 144hrs. 850mb vorticity still shows up, but shear looks very hostile.
Last edited by stormhunter7 on Wed Oct 05, 2016 1:34 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov
-
- Admin
- Posts: 20009
- Age: 62
- Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
- Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)
Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
Moving nearly due south at 138 hours, 987mb
1 likes
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
- Hurrilurker
- Category 2
- Posts: 719
- Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 3:32 pm
- Location: San Francisco, CA
-
- Admin
- Posts: 20009
- Age: 62
- Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
- Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)
Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
And here we go, starting to regain strength at 150 hours, 986mb
0 likes
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
- wxmann_91
- Category 5
- Posts: 8013
- Age: 34
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2005 2:49 pm
- Location: Southern California
- Contact:
Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
Westerly shear really weakens Matthew as it does the loop, and by hr 144 it looks like it's steered by the low-level flow southwestward. It'll be interesting to see if it can find itself in a low-shear environment further south and reintensify, which is what the GFS does.
0 likes
-
- Admin
- Posts: 20009
- Age: 62
- Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
- Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)
Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
Location is 27N, 74W
0 likes
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
-
- Admin
- Posts: 20009
- Age: 62
- Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
- Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)
Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
Too tired but after regaining some strength it weakens again. It may be sitting still.


0 likes
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
- stormhunter7
- Category 2
- Posts: 762
- Joined: Mon May 26, 2008 3:13 pm
- Location: Panama City Beach, Florida
- Contact:
Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
... and there is the west turn at 168hrs.. slow turn and very little movement to west back towards Bahamas
0 likes
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov
- wxmann_91
- Category 5
- Posts: 8013
- Age: 34
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2005 2:49 pm
- Location: Southern California
- Contact:
Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
Trough in the northern GOM at hr 168 should turn Matthew back OTS again. But given how shallow Matthew is at that point and how weak that trough looks, well who knows. Models not too long ago had a sprawling ridge in the SE at that same time period.
0 likes
-
- Admin
- Posts: 20009
- Age: 62
- Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
- Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)
Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
It is literally zigzagging between 150 and 168 hours, alternating between 986mb and 992mb. I tell ya it looks like bad or funky data but who knows.
I'm going to bed.
I'm going to bed.
0 likes
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
-
- Category 2
- Posts: 597
- Joined: Mon Jun 25, 2012 8:09 am
- Location: Fort Lauderdale, Florida
Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
NAVGEM kind of shows a loop near Jacksonville, before going back OTS.
0 likes
- stormhunter7
- Category 2
- Posts: 762
- Joined: Mon May 26, 2008 3:13 pm
- Location: Panama City Beach, Florida
- Contact:
Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
Now it's tracking NE OTS at 192hrs
0 likes
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov
- stormhunter7
- Category 2
- Posts: 762
- Joined: Mon May 26, 2008 3:13 pm
- Location: Panama City Beach, Florida
- Contact:
Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
So after 240hrs.... GFS is having resolution problems?
0 likes
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov
Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
0Z Euro may not be as hard a hit on the GA coast as was suggested by the 12Z run though it is hard to tell for sure due to not seeing any maps between 72 and 96 hours.
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
Just waking up, wow on the 0z GFS and some people were calling the 12z Euro crazy, lol.
0 likes
Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
The new GFS run should be about to start.. will be interesting I'm sure.
0 likes
-
- Tropical Low
- Posts: 25
- Joined: Fri Sep 30, 2016 11:29 pm
Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
Are we seeing the start of a trend to the East and will the NHC shift Matthew track more & more East as day goes on?
0 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 8 guests