ATL: MATTHEW - Models

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tgenius
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6841 Postby tgenius » Wed Oct 05, 2016 4:44 am

Can't link the graphic but at 48 hr the GFS looks roughly an it north on the new run but could be my eyes as I'm still half aslee from waking up.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6842 Postby xironman » Wed Oct 05, 2016 4:44 am

For all intents and purposes a twin at 54

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6843 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Wed Oct 05, 2016 4:46 am

00z and 06z GFS pretty close at 54 hours.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6844 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Wed Oct 05, 2016 4:47 am

Port Canaveral landfall at 60.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6845 Postby xironman » Wed Oct 05, 2016 4:48 am

The northern stream continues to dominate, stupid Nina. Probably it will get left behind again.

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stormlover2013

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6846 Postby stormlover2013 » Wed Oct 05, 2016 4:52 am

Trend is not east
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6847 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Wed Oct 05, 2016 4:52 am

Eye wall rides the coast up to Jacksonville through 72 hours.
Last edited by FLpanhandle91 on Wed Oct 05, 2016 4:56 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6848 Postby NDG » Wed Oct 05, 2016 4:56 am

Yeap, 06z GFS has partial landfall over Cape Canaveral into Volusia & Flaggler Counties.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6849 Postby seahawkjd » Wed Oct 05, 2016 4:58 am

84 hours seems a decent amount southwest from the 0z.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6850 Postby xironman » Wed Oct 05, 2016 4:59 am

Looks like it wants to start the loop at 90hrs.

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6851 Postby artist » Wed Oct 05, 2016 5:00 am

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6852 Postby NDG » Wed Oct 05, 2016 5:02 am

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6853 Postby RL3AO » Wed Oct 05, 2016 5:09 am

Euro wasn't buying in to the southern part of the trough being as strong over past couple days. So often it seems to nail the mid latitude pattern at day 5 and 7 before the gfs adjusts to it.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6854 Postby xironman » Wed Oct 05, 2016 5:10 am

Upper level winds not favorable at 144, but if it goes a bit south things will get better

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6855 Postby GCANE » Wed Oct 05, 2016 5:10 am

Here are the best performing models as of today's 06Z runs.
They all have track accuracy of less than 70 miles over 48 hr period for Matthew.


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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6856 Postby NDG » Wed Oct 05, 2016 5:14 am

And I keep saying that people were calling the 12z Euro crazy, it is always the lead trender within the 5-7 day range.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6857 Postby xironman » Wed Oct 05, 2016 5:18 am

Pretty weak on the second approach, but the pattern looks like it is going to be around for a while.

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6858 Postby jlauderdal » Wed Oct 05, 2016 5:22 am

xironman wrote:Pretty weak on the second approach, but the pattern looks like it is going to be around for a while.

Image
yes but we have all learned a lesson about the modeling..its good too about H72 and thats about it
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6859 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Wed Oct 05, 2016 5:26 am

delete.
Last edited by Digital-TC-Chaser on Wed Oct 05, 2016 5:39 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#6860 Postby NDG » Wed Oct 05, 2016 5:30 am

Digital-TC-Chaser wrote:[img]https://s14.postimg.org/b176a4drl/2016_10_05_21_22_35_MSLP_10_m_Wind_Core_18z.png


This is yesterday's 18z GFDL run, it has been a little on the left biased all along.
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