ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Stormcenter]

This is nothing to sneeze at right now.

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/d ... uration=12

[dukeblue219]

Not sure I saw this one posted, but the last dropsonde in the SE eyewall had 132 knot winds just 8mb above surface (~200ft?).

[ZX12R]

What in the world is this guy doing.


https://twitter.com/Deathbymartymar/status/784122375424004096/video/1

Being his typical drama queen self.

Meaning Shep?

[Hammy]

western outer eyewall looks nasty - not far offshore WPB/Ft Laud - buckle up.

https://www.wunderground.com/weather-radar/united-states/fl/miami/amx/?region=pie

That may negate the effects of any eastward shift...

[Raebie]

What in the world is this guy doing.


https://twitter.com/Deathbymartymar/status/784122375424004096/video/1

Being his typical drama queen self.

Meaning Shep?

Yes. Shep.

[Portastorm]

Can I quickly post a non storm note and say how impressed I am with the Storm 2K servers. You guys must be getting slammed with traffic, and yet the site is operating totally smoothly.

I just sent a donation today as I'm sure you're burning through bandwidth with all the extra traffic.... Hope others will do the same.

I did the same yesterday, first time donation. Same reasons.

Thanks very much!

[Steve]

What in the world is this guy doing.


https://twitter.com/Deathbymartymar/status/784122375424004096/video/1

Fear and Balanced?

[swampgator92]

It looks like the inner eyewall is collapsing and the outer might be in the process of shrinking. Interesting.

[seahawkjd]

Can I quickly post a non storm note and say how impressed I am with the Storm 2K servers. You guys must be getting slammed with traffic, and yet the site is operating totally smoothly.

I just sent a donation today as I'm sure you're burning through bandwidth with all the extra traffic.... Hope others will do the same.

I did the same yesterday, first time donation. Same reasons.

Sorry to clog the thread but same here. I should have been donating a long time ago considering all of the information this site has provided me over the past 13 years.

[ZX12R]

Can I quickly post a non storm note and say how impressed I am with the Storm 2K servers. You guys must be getting slammed with traffic, and yet the site is operating totally smoothly.

I just sent a donation today as I'm sure you're burning through bandwidth with all the extra traffic.... Hope others will do the same.

I did the same yesterday, first time donation. Same reasons.

Thanks very much!

I contributed late last night while I was drinking. I hope I didn't contribute thousands of dollars.

[Cuda17]

Hopefully he is scaring some sense into the ones who are trying to stay. Makes sense to me.

Christ no. There's a difference between sensible warnings and absurd scaremongering. That is far into the latter.

But scaremongering is the only language the Fox News crowd understands...

DO NOT make this political! There is absolutely no place in this thread for that kind of discussion. People are getting important information from this forum regarding this very destructive storm and your post does not help!

[lando]

That airport in the tip of grand bahama about to get flattend

[hcane27]

I would like for someone to explain to me how/why the westward shift will take place. I have been following the center of circulation all day and it appears to be really struggling to get enough westward motion on the present heading to make 80 west.

[SunnyThoughts]

Still a lot of lightning inside that inner eye wall.

[Rail Dawg]

As a Hurricane chaser I've made it to Melbourne FL and found the last indoor parking spot in the Florida Institute of Technology tall garage.

Awesome reinforced concrete stairwell and 40 ft above sea level.

Will the eye pass over? I don't know.

Going to go walk the dog. Interesting energy obviously in the air.

[KBBOCA]

Here's the FPL power outage tracking site. Surprised to already see significant numbers w/o power in Broward and PB Counties given they've not had a lot of impact yet. But then of course... it's FPL...

[KBBOCA]

Here's the FPL power outage tracking site. Surprised to already see significant numbers w/o power in Broward and PB Counties given they've not had a lot of impact yet. But then of course... it's FPL...

https://www.fpl.com/storm/customer-outages.html

[Hammy]

A bit off topic: how do you make the storm-specific NASA satellite link to link offsite? When I click it I just get this http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

Back on topic: somebody I know lives in Titusville (western side) and while the prep-work and everything is already completed, they were wondering what sort of damage the house should expect at this point--would Charley's damage in Orlando be about right or would it be more/less than that on this track?

[Portastorm]

As a Hurricane chaser I've made it to Melbourne FL and found the last indoor parking spot in the Florida Institute of Technology tall garage.

Awesome reinforced concrete stairwell and 40 ft above sea level.

Will the eye pass over? I don't know.

Going to go walk the dog. Interesting energy obviously in the air.

Keep us posted ... but please be safe, sir!

[ozonepete]

Dr. Jeff Masters posted this as a comment just a little while ago on his latest blog entry at Wunderground - explains possible effects of ERC


552. Dr. Jeff Masters , Director of Meteorology (Admin)
8:33 PM GMT on October 06, 2016
The Hurricane Hunters just found concentric eyewalls with a diameter of 75 and 12 miles. Radar data also confirms that Matthew is likely going through an eyewall replacement cycle (ERC), where the inner eyewall will collapse and be replaced by a giant outer eyewall with a diameter of 75 miles. If the inner eyewall collapses before Matthew hits Florida, the top winds at landfall might be only Category 2 strength. The down side of an ERC is that it will spread hurricane-force winds out over a larger area, increasing the storm surge. Another issue with a large radius outer eyewall is the potential for prolonged exposure to high winds on the western edge, as the storm moves northward along the coast.

I think Matthew has very little chance of increasing its winds beyond the current advisory intensity of 140 mph.

An experimental version of the SHIPS model run at 2 pm EDT predicts predicts max winds of 111, 105, 102, and 101 kts at 6, 12, 18, and 24 hrs if ERC-weakening begins now. Without the ERC, SHIPS (with inland decay if the storm hits land) predicts 121, 119, 117, and 114 kts.

Jeff Masters

I think Dr. Masters is going to turn out to be quite accurate here. The ERC appears to have started and it simply has to start weakening now. In addition, the satellite presentation is showing some degradation in the northwestern quadrant as far as loss of the solid CDO there - some dry air intrusion? We can only hope this is true since obviously it would save a lot of Florida a good deal of cat 4 damage.