ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Steve]

Wxman 57 should have cleared it up for everyone. Matthew has been tracking east of the NHC forecast points all day. It will still be a devastating storm for Florida, and not to diminish the effects of a major hurricane, but a brush with the outer eyewall of a 120-130mph storm is not nearly the same as a direct hit from a 145mph storm. It just isn't. The story with this storm may end-up being storm surge further north.

Legit. And the difference between a few hundred million and tens of billions. But It's still stairstepping toward the coast. It looks like the overall whirling motion will take it up toward Cape Canaveral which is farther north than I thought the eyewall would have contacted land. It could stay NNW and in the water, and that's what we all want. But it's a knife edge. It looks like Seminole County up and south of Daytona has gotten the most rain with portions in the 5-6" range already. They have a ton of feeder bands to go, so if they get more training, you could see some really high amounts there.

[meriland23]

10pm NHC. 13mph NW at 130 mph with 937 mb

[LarryWx]

If this thing doesn't make landfall in Florida then I would think storm surge for Georgia would just be going up. Stacking water from south Florida all the way up and shoving it into the bend.

Gosh, interesting take but I hope it wouldn't add too much to the storm surge there, if any. I'm thinking this MAYBE would mean it would also be further off GA than model consensus since model consensus has it having a northerly to NNE motion when at the GA latitudes. Crossing my fingers that that would still be the case. Any other opinions on this for GA?

[northjaxpro]

Good evening everyone. I am here at my home and I decided to ride Matthew out. I will stay on and provide as much as I can while the power stays on. This will be likely a very unforgettale experience needless to say.

[gatorcane]

The storm passed about 80 miles or so from my locale in Boca Raton as a CAT 4 and highest wind gust here might be a generous 50mph. Thought we may end up getting gusts into the 70 and 80s but that didn't even come close to happening. The storm took that north jog and ended up over Freeport instead of about 30-40 miles further west like the reliable models had it. Still have power and probably got about 2 inches of rain. The west side of a hurricane is the good side for a reason. I think if it were the other way - 80 miles on the east side, it would have been far worse. I am optimistic most of the east coast of Florida will be spared the worst winds. We may not see any wind gusts above 100mph anywhere if we get lucky as long as that center stays offshore.

[ROCK]

130mph about right I would think given the presentation and RECON...

[kpost]

I have been reading non stop and am very confused regarding the eyeball replacement cycle. I know the cycle normally weakens but the pressure is still very low and he is transversing extremely warm waters. Is he weakening, maintaining or possibly increasing? I see all the back and forth and am just trying to learn. I understand that regardless he is a monster nobody wants on their doorstep. From what I am understanding, please correct me if I am wrong....if he weakens, his wind field will be larger creating more surge and increasing the wind field so that a brush of the eyewall will be harder to avoid.

Been lurking and just want everyone in the path of this beast to be safe. We moved back to Ohio temporarily and now I am just hoping our town of Indialantic, FL (barrier island outside Melbourne) is unharmed. I am very scared for those I know and fearful of what we will be returning to later this year.

I must also compliment the Satellite Beach Fire chief he summed up the need to evacuate the best, paraphrasing he said ....
These people comparing it to '04 and deciding that they could stay on the island because they have handled a hurricane, have not in a generation handled a hurricane and have no clue what they are possibly in for.
I loved that he hit the typical island ego and hopefully some had a change of plans and evacuated.

[abajan]

I'm calling landfall at Cocoa Beach, 942mb, 128mph sustained winds

To be honest, my opinions on Matthew have been like a roller coaster today. Currently, I don't think it's going to landfall anywhere in Florida. ("landfall" meaning the center of the eye coming ashore.) However, whether it makes landfall or not, beach erosion is going to be horrendous and many places are likely to see sustained hurricane force winds. I must stress that those in the warning areas should continue to monitor their local radio and TV stations for advice.

[Steve]

The storm passed about 80 miles or so from my locale in Boca Raton as a CAT 4 and highest wind gust here might be a generous 50mph. Thought we may end up getting gusts into the 70 and 80s but that didn't even come close to happening. The storm took that north jog and ended up over Freeport instead of further west like the reliable models had it. Still have power and probably got about 2 inches of rain. The west side of a hurricane is the food side for a reason. I think if it were the other way - 80 miles on the east side, it would have been far worse. I a, optimistic most of the east coast of Florida will be spared the worst winds. We may not see any wind gusts above 100mph anywhere if we get lucky as long as that center stays offshore.

Yeah. You can see that in Haiti and probably tomorrow in some of the Bahamas. It's not the model thread, but the 01z HRRR has initialized. It's been adamant about that pulse west someone said for like 8 straight hourly runs. It's close. It's only on the 0 hour for now, but this is pretty cool to see if it can nail an impossible track to begin with should it stay with the NW moving peninsula landfall.

[wxman57]

I didn't see any winds over 85 kts on the last couple of passes through the eye, and the winds will be weaker left of the track. It's also well east of the forecast. Might miss the east coast of Florida, yet. Much better than a strengthening Cat 4 heading into the coast near Palm Beach. Even Cat 1 hurricane winds can do a lot of damage, though.

Any thoughts further North in regards to Matthews impact on GA/SC/NC?

Just calculated that Matthew's heading is 328 deg. From it's current point, that heading takes it about 20 miles east of Cape Canaveral (if it doesn't wobble back west, which is always possible). No way to determine precisely when that NE and E turn will occur. Prepare for the worst if you live up there and hope for the best.

[LarryWx]

The 10PM NHC coordinates have it at NNW motion for the third straight hour.

[Exalt]

I have been reading non stop and am very confused regarding the eyeball replacement cycle. I know the cycle normally weakens but the pressure is still very low and he is transversing extremely warm waters. Is he weakening, maintaining or possibly increasing? I see all the back and forth and am just trying to learn. I understand that regardless he is a monster nobody wants on their doorstep. From what I am understanding, please correct me if I am wrong....if he weakens, his wind field will be larger creating more surge and increasing the wind field so that a brush of the eyewall will be harder to avoid.

Been lurking and just want everyone in the path of this beast to be safe. We moved back to Ohio temporarily and now I am just hoping our town of Indialantic, FL (barrier island outside Melbourne) is unharmed. I am very scared for those I know and fearful of what we will be returning to later this year.

I must also compliment the Satellite Beach Fire chief he summed up the need to evacuate the best, paraphrasing he said ....
These people comparing it to '04 and deciding that they could stay on the island because they have handled a hurricane, have not in a generation handled a hurricane and have no clue what they are possibly in for.
I loved that he hit the typical island ego and hopefully some had a change of plans and evacuated.

Generally storms during ERCs are both unstable and stable, they're never really predictable either, as each storm usually tends to handle them differently. Often times, yes, storms tend to weaken a bit wind-wise as strong convection is disrupted as the outer eyewall builds up and chokes out the inner eyewall, however sometimes pressure is fair game. Considering how good Matthew looked prior to the ERC, it's safe to say it's likely he'll make it out alive and well. And if the pressure is dropping within a hurricane, it's a sign of strengthening, which is weird I know, but this storm has been weird in all categories throughout its life. Once the ERC is over, if it has the chance, winds will eventually catch up to the pressure drop, which is a bad thing.

[Steve]

It moves it to the coast in 3-4 hours. We'll know if it was right before the European runs, maybe even the finale of whatever the GFS shows. Btw, 7 hours still partially on that coast. That's howling weather there. Orlando metro easily in the western eyewall if HRRR is on it.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... s=0&ypos=0

[gatorcane]

I am watching a TV met in West Palm and he is convinced that the system is leaning more NW towards the Treasure coast, I checked the radar and see no indication of that. He still thinks maybe hurricane force gusts for coastal Palm Beach around north County. I am just not seeing that.

[tolakram]

Yeah. You can see that in Haiti and probably tomorrow in some of the Bahamas. It's not the model thread, but the 01z HRRR has initialized. It's been adamant about that pulse west someone said for like 8 straight hourly runs. It's close. It's only on the 0 hour for now, but this is pretty cool to see if it can nail an impossible track to begin with should it stay with the NW moving peninsula landfall.

I believe the HRRR did the same thing with Hermine, and was wrong. It's stuck on the sudden west track into Florida which seems highly unlikely.

[Fountainguy97]

The people in SC and NC need to be watching this much more closely. Recent models are coming back to a "riding the coast" scenario. The problem for intensity forecasts is the fact thatMatthew may intact makelandfall in FL then stay just over land all the way up through SC and maybe even into NC. This would be a much weaker storm.

The more frightening scenario would be a storm staying just far enough off the coast to maintain strength. Then the entire East coast from FL to NC would have the chance of hurricane force winds.

Also many models hinting at some big time rains in NC a foot of rain is on the table due to tropical moisture training into NC starting tomorrow.

Bottom line is that there are A LOT of people that think they are "safe" when in fact they are at major risk

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

I tend to think in the next 5-6hrs the cane will start making a landfall, i hope not but that's what i think will pan out.

[Hammy]

It moves it to the coast in 3-4 hours. We'll know if it was right before the European runs, maybe even the finale of whatever the GFS shows. Btw, 7 hours still partially on that coast. That's howling weather there. Orlando metro easily in the western eyewall if HRRR is on it.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... s=0&ypos=0

HRRR seems to have too much of a westward movement at the start of the run, that seems to throw off the rest of it.

On that note, someone in Titusville (who already has the shutters up) asked how their house will fare, so what sort of winds should I tell them to assume they'll be waking up to?

[smithtim]

10pm NHC. 13mph NW at 130 mph with 937 mb

And 135 miles SE of Cape Canaveral...so about 10 hours

Time for me finaly get some shuteye after couple long days prep / evac...stay safe everyone & thanks to all y'all taking the time on here to post such useful info!!!

[Aric Dunn]

The 10PM NHC coordinates have it at NNW motion for the third straight hour.

two problems. if your tracking the center that is rotating around the larger eyewall then your going to have issues.

also thats why they do a 6 hour average motion.. not 3.