2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 16)

[DESTRUCTION5]

Wilmaesque might I say.

[AJC3]

Wilmaesque might I say.

YUGE change at 06Z. No more burying it into Belize. Standard Fantasyland caveat applies.

[SouthFLTropics]

Tampa gets crushed in fantasyland at hour 384. The trend for development in the Western Caribbean is alarming.

[AJC3]

H384 = RIP SWFL

[DESTRUCTION5]

Wilmaesque might I say.

YUGE change at 06Z. No more burying it into Belize. Standard Fantasyland caveat applies.

More like Disneyland (World) caveat as it crosses FL near Orlando as a cat 4ish monster.

[cycloneye]

We will stick in this thread for now until one of these two things occur:

1-A disturbance is in the area.

2-Is mentioned in TWO.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/785814281698746369

[gatorcane]

The ECMWF, UKMET, CMC, and FIM models how development of the Western Caribbean system in their 00Z runs.

[USTropics]

Last nights 00z-06z model run recap, ensembles continue to support development in the Caribbean starting in roughly 140-180 hours.

Ensembles
If something does form (and indications over the past three days have increasing probability of this), it appears we'll have another very complex steering pattern taking shape long term:

06z GFS esnembles 186 hours


00z CMC ensembles at 192 hours


00z ECMWF ensembles


06z GFS ensembles at 270 hours showing many possible outcomes



Operational
The operational runs are actually in amazing agreement through 168 hours. Solutions diverge thereafter.

00z UKMET buries this into the Caribbean through 168 hours


00z ECMWF has a weak 850mb vort signature near Jamaica at 240 hours


06z GFS is positioned just to the SW of the ECWMF at the same time frame


00z CMC is currently a northern outlier with NAVGEM


00z FIM is close to the GFS/ECMWF solution


00z ACCESS (Australian model) has a low in the Caribbean through 144 hours


06z NAVGEM through 144 hours


Even the 06z German model shows development


TL;DR there is increasing ensemble and global model support for tropical genesis in the Caribbean. Plenty of time to watch, but keep a watchful eye on this area.

[Patrick99]

Would be right on schedule for a latter-half-of-October Western Caribbean hurricane. Going to be watching this closely for a while.

As for Irene vs Wilma, Irene was some of the heaviest rain I've ever seen, while Wilma carried some decent gusts, by far the most I'd seen wind-wise since Andrew.

[jlauderdal]

H384 = RIP SWFL

what happened to the ridge holding it south...i hope you kept the hurricane shutters up

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Very strong support on the 06z GFS ensembles for a potential Western Caribbean storm.

[SouthFloridian92]

What general path do the models show the storm taking?

[jlauderdal]

Would be right on schedule for a latter-half-of-October Western Caribbean hurricane. Going to be watching this closely for a while.

As for Irene vs Wilma, Irene was some of the heaviest rain I've ever seen, while Wilma carried some decent gusts, by far the most I'd seen wind-wise since Andrew.

yep, interesting how we really took it on the chin with rain while just up the coast near Melbourne it was more of a wind event per ALC3..

[bqknight]

What general path do the models show the storm taking?

I think it's too early to know exactly where it would go. Climatology would show it getting picked up North and getting either Florida or if far enough east, missing Florida.

[gatorcane]

Last nights 00z-06z model run recap, ensembles continue to support development in the Caribbean starting in roughly 140-180 hours.

Ensembles
If something does form (and indications over the past three days have increasing probability of this), it appears we'll have another very complex steering pattern taking shape long term:

06z GFS esnembles 186 hours
http://i.imgur.com/u9v5zF5.png

00z CMC ensembles at 192 hours
http://i.imgur.com/KVfETjZ.png

00z ECMWF ensembles
http://i.imgur.com/jCF0j6o.png

06z GFS ensembles at 270 hours showing many possible outcomes
http://i.imgur.com/aQPh6PE.png


Operational
The operational runs are actually in amazing agreement through 168 hours. Solutions diverge thereafter.

00z UKMET buries this into the Caribbean through 168 hours
http://i.imgur.com/KT487yh.png

00z ECMWF has a weak 850mb vort signature near Jamaica at 240 hours
http://i.imgur.com/KPpZeRe.png

06z GFS is positioned just to the SW of the ECWMF at the same time frame
http://i.imgur.com/k7bWHZc.png

00z CMC is currently a northern outlier with NAVGEM
http://i.imgur.com/yqEN0gh.png

00z FIM is close to the GFS/ECMWF solution
http://i.imgur.com/6kOITAW.png

00z ACCESS (Australian model) has a low in the Caribbean through 144 hours
http://i.imgur.com/3CSZZL2.png

06z NAVGEM through 144 hours
http://i.imgur.com/IS6uPST.png

Even the 06z German model shows development
http://i.imgur.com/b9O69Y6.png

TL;DR there is increasing ensemble and global model support for tropical genesis in the Caribbean. Plenty of time to watch, but keep a watchful eye on this area.

Very nice model summary, thanks! Plenty of model support that is for sure.

[Hurricaneman]

This needs to be watched because some people meaning lots of them are still recovering from Matthew and don't need another disaster

[gatorcane]

00Z NASA at 180 hours, eventually moves it into Jamaica/Eastern Cuba/Central/NW Bahamas in the long-range:

[cycloneye]

Hopefully,we have the first TWO very soon (2 PM? - 8 PM?) and then move to a new thread.

[gatorcane]

I think models are zeroing in on the vigorous wave east of the Southern Lesser Antilles. If I track the 850mb vort from the 06Z GFS, it seems to track a piece of vorticity from this wave west over Northern South America and into the SW Caribbean where development commences around days 5-7: