Texas Fall-2016

[aggiecutter]

FWD now has a freeze here Sunday Morning, and upper 20s just outside the metro.

Also the warmest high is 70 next Tuesday.

NWS forecast for Sunday morning in Texarkana is 30 degrees.

[TheProfessor]

Bastardi's CFSv2 ensemble snow maps never fail to get a laugh. He posted one that ran at 6z this morning and all 4 of them had at least 8 inches of snow for Ohio over the next 45 days. But the best Ensemble had North Texas receiving 20+ inches of snow over the next 45 days.

[weatherdude1108]

Bastardi's CFSv2 ensemble snow maps never fail to get a laugh. He posted one that ran at 6z this morning and all 4 of them had at least 8 inches of snow for Ohio over the next 45 days. But the best Ensemble had North Texas receiving 20+ inches of snow over the next 45 days.

It is theoretically possible for DFW to receive 20+ inches. More than our freezing drizzle.

[Golf7070]

Dan Leonard
@DanLeonard_wx
51m
Best looking ECMWF weekly run of the season for the east, great mid Dec pattern. Finally the Pac jet takes a rest pic.twitter.com/NFKH3PbwlG

NTXW, do you believe the weeklies? I know they change alot. I'm not convinced the Pacific jet slows that much. It's on a pace I've never seen before with how strong it is.

[TheProfessor]

Bastardi's CFSv2 ensemble snow maps never fail to get a laugh. He posted one that ran at 6z this morning and all 4 of them had at least 8 inches of snow for Ohio over the next 45 days. But the best Ensemble had North Texas receiving 20+ inches of snow over the next 45 days.

It is theoretically possible for DFW to receive 20+ inches. More than our freezing drizzle.

Oh it's possible, it's just insanely rare for everything to perfectly set up for it to occur. I would need to see the Skew-ts for the 2013 Ice Storm again, but that might be the closest some areas were for the chance of seeing 20 or so inches of snow. Of course without the warm nose there probably wouldn't have been as much overrunning moisture as there was.

[Ntxw]

Euro weeklies solidifies the great potential we may be about to embark in. I am as bold as ever that a wholesale hemisphere pattern change is currently underway. The storm that is sending the cold front now is actually a leading train of what could be a multitude of powerful systems that will kick out from the Pacific jet that is on the verge of getting blocked. The Pacific jet has been pounding North America but all signs point to a block that will slow everything down and forcing the jet underneath providing us with ample systems. Meanwhile the Aleutian ridge will attack it from behind, helping funnel some cold air from Asia. The AO will tank by the end of this month, potentially comparable levels as was in 2009 (Thank you snow advance). Good signals the stratosphere is undergoing a MMW with the collapse of the stratospheric PV (near record early). This upcoming pattern is 180 from last December. With a 500mb look complete opposite you would imagine we will not get a historically warm December again.

The Hudson block that is about to ensue will probably be the strongest we have seen since December of 2012.

Reminder we will be shifting to the winter thread on December 1st.

[Ntxw]

Bastardi's CFSv2 ensemble snow maps never fail to get a laugh. He posted one that ran at 6z this morning and all 4 of them had at least 8 inches of snow for Ohio over the next 45 days. But the best Ensemble had North Texas receiving 20+ inches of snow over the next 45 days.

It is theoretically possible for DFW to receive 20+ inches. More than our freezing drizzle.

Oh it's possible, it's just insanely rare for everything to perfectly set up for it to occur. I would need to see the Skew-ts for the 2013 Ice Storm again, but that might be the closest some areas were for the chance of seeing 20 or so inches of snow. Of course without the warm nose there probably wouldn't have been as much overrunning moisture as there was.

I wonder if it's the storm the Euro weekly control sits and spins in Texas first week of December? If you cut your usual half to melting, tax another 5inches and you get a more reasonable 1-5" storm

[Brent]

Euro weeklies solidifies the great potential we may be about to embark in. I am as bold as ever that a wholesale hemisphere pattern change is currently underway. The storm that is sending the cold front now is actually a leading train of what could be a multitude of powerful systems that will kick out from the Pacific jet that is on the verge of getting blocked. The Pacific jet has been pounding North America but all signs point to a block that will slow everything down and forcing the jet underneath providing us with ample systems. Meanwhile the Aleutian ridge will attack it from behind, helping funnel some cold air from Asia. The AO will tank by the end of this month, potentially comparable levels as was in 2009 (Thank you snow advance). Good signals the stratosphere is undergoing a MMW with the collapse of the stratospheric PV (near record early). This upcoming pattern is 180 from last December. With a 500mb look complete opposite you would imagine we will not get a historically warm December again.

The Hudson block that is about to ensue will probably be the strongest we have seen since December of 2012.

Reminder we will be shifting to the winter thread on December 1st.

Oh I so hope you are right... the past year we've earned it lol.

[Ntxw]

Oh I so hope you are right... the past year we've earned it lol.

Oh I know, all this warmer than normal is getting really old fast. I just hope it pans out and we can lay some snow cover. Then send down the EPO mid December with the weak Nina and call it a winter. I'll be satisfied even if it warms up the rest of the way...we're actually still following 1983 fairly close at 500mb. Lets hope it comes through.

This is what the last week and a half of what 1983 was. I think we'll get a similar pattern, not that extreme of course. Kara/Barents ridge vanishes after dominating much of the month shifting to Greenland/Hudson

[aggiecutter]

Euro weeklies solidifies the great potential we may be about to embark in. I am as bold as ever that a wholesale hemisphere pattern change is currently underway. The storm that is sending the cold front now is actually a leading train of what could be a multitude of powerful systems that will kick out from the Pacific jet that is on the verge of getting blocked. The Pacific jet has been pounding North America but all signs point to a block that will slow everything down and forcing the jet underneath providing us with ample systems. Meanwhile the Aleutian ridge will attack it from behind, helping funnel some cold air from Asia. The AO will tank by the end of this month, potentially comparable levels as was in 2009 (Thank you snow advance). Good signals the stratosphere is undergoing a MMW with the collapse of the stratospheric PV (near record early). This upcoming pattern is 180 from last December. With a 500mb look complete opposite you would imagine we will not get a historically warm December again.

The Hudson block that is about to ensue will probably be the strongest we have seen since December of 2012.

Reminder we will be shifting to the winter thread on December 1st.

If this doesn't come to fruition:

[Brent]

GFS has 20s in DFW the first weekend of December(the very end of the run though). Mostly 60s for highs til then, maybe a couple days in the low 70s. A rain event looks to be on tap Thanksgiving weekend.

[Ralph's Weather]

Lots of lighting in the storms ahead of the front. Looks like E TX will see rain most of the morning. Front looks to be moving through Fort Worth now (Brownwood to FW to Sherman line). Looking at sites off to the NW it appears that the front brings a gradual fall in temps at a rate of about 4 degrees per hour with the sun coming up and no post frontal moisture I expect that to be slower east of I-35. So with temps in the upper 60s now I expect evening temps to be in the 55 to 60 range. Frost appears likely this weekend for most of the northern half of Texas with tomorrow morning the most likely west of I-35 and Sunday morning east of there. Some freezes possible especially north of I-30 and in could spots further south.

[weatherdude1108]

I am guessing it will rain just enough with this front down here to scatter the dust on our vehicles into beige-colored dust drops. This is based on personal history.
But I am glad the 80s are done for now.

[Portastorm]

I am guessing it will rain just enough with this front down here to scatter the dust on our vehicles into beige-colored dust drops. This is based on personal history.
But I am glad the 80s are done for now.

Based on the radar at 715 am, I'd say you've made an accurate forecast.

[Ntxw]

It was around 70 this morning early when I left. Front has come through since 50s and blustery

[srainhoutx]

The morning Updated Super Ensemble Day 11+ analogs suggest the blocking regime may be a possibility. Stepping down...

[Yukon Cornelius]

Current temp of 45 with a wind chill of 37. Forecasted low of 29-30 tonight into tomorrow morning. Finally a freeze!

[gpsnowman]

DFW airport has a chance to have a low temperature in the 30's before an actual low in the 40's overnight. Weird. This front is about a month late.

[Tireman4]

The morning Updated Super Ensemble Day 11+ analogs suggest the blocking regime may be a possibility. Stepping down...

Finally, I have waited all year for the one met that does not use this term lightly...thank you..Come on Winter!!

[Tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 181200
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
600 AM CST Fri Nov 18 2016

.AVIATION...
Scattered to broken clouds streaming up ahead of lowering central
Texas surface pressure associated with an approaching cold front.
Early day streamer showers to move across with rain better filling
in as the front...or the pre-frontal trough...enters southeastern
Texas later this morning. Scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms
will impact the terminals through the late afternoon hours. The
forecast timing of the cold frontal passage at CLL will be between
Noon and 2 PM...across the Houston terminals between 3 and 5 PM...and
through GLS between 6 and 8 PM. Moderate northerlies and clear skies
in this front`s wake early Saturday morning...strong offshore coastal
winds will persist through Saturday afternoon. 31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CST Fri Nov 18 2016/

DISCUSSION...
The cold front is still on track to move through Southeast Texas today
with showers and thunderstorms developing along and ahead of the boundary.
Look for the best chance of rain in the morning through early afternoon
hours across our northern counties when the front moves into the area,
then further southward in the afternoon through early evening hours
when the front moves through the area and off the coast. Overnight low
temperatures are unseasonably warm this morning (some 15 to 20 degrees
above normal) with readings in the mid 60s to near 70 inland and in
the mid 70s at the coast. Galveston`s record high temperature for the
day of 79 degrees (set in 1996) has a good chance of being broken. The
coolest temperatures of the day can be expected this evening as strong
surface high pressure begins building into the state from the north
and northwest. Breezy north winds will accompany the cool down this
evening and overnight, and wind advisories might be needed along the
coast and possibly some of our inland counties. Weekend temperatures
(coldest readings on Sunday morning) will have lows generally in the
30s and 40s (no freeze is anticipated) and highs in the 60s. Look for
a warm up early next week as the surface high moves off to the east
and winds come back around to the south and southeast. The area`s
next rain chances look to come around Tuesday/Wednesday with the
approach of the next cold front. The current forecast has a majority
of Southeast Texas on the cool and dry side for Thanksgiving. 42

MARINE...
Mariners should take the proper precautions today in advance of an
approaching cold front that...when it clears the coast tonight...will
generate advisory level to gale force wind and sea conditions in its
wake. This morning`s caution level winds/seas will gradually taper
off this afternoon as the waters fall just downstream of this cold
frontal boundary. Scattered showers with localized embedded
thunderstorms will likely ride in from the south through the day.
Early Saturday morning sustained winds and seas will near gale...with
frequent gusts to or above gale force over seas in excess of 9 feet
..and this may hoist short fuse Gale Warnings. At least caution
level conditions will persist through late Saturday...subsiding below
caution criteria Sunday morning. High pressure over the waters
early in the work week will provide light winds and seas Monday.
Return flow strengthens and shower/storm chances increase ahead of
the next western Texas front. The cold front is forecast to travel
off the coast sometime Wednesday. 31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 73 42 62 37 65 / 70 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 80 46 64 40 65 / 70 10 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 80 53 63 51 64 / 60 40 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...Gale Watch from this evening through Saturday morning for the
following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the
Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High
Island to Freeport out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda
Bay...Waters from Freeport to the Matagorda Ship Channel
from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport from
20 to 60 NM.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until noon CST today for the
following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to the
Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to
the Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
High Island to Freeport from 20 to 60 NM.

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 9 AM CST this morning
for the following zones: Coastal waters from High Island to
Freeport out 20 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...42
Aviation/Marine...31