Texas Winter 2016-2017

[Ntxw]

Heyoooo

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/804786578136727552

"Got to <3 this k=2 pattern setting up as a ridge overtakes the North Pole and splits the tropospheric polar vortex into two lobes"

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CystH6GXcAAwByQ.jpg

Getting disturbed again up there for December, after being disturbed in November.

http://i64.tinypic.com/2pocyom.gif

Ntwx， what is mike ventrice trying to say with what he is referring to? Also， what is this diagram?

All supports a chilly pattern for continued opportunities of strong cold fronts this month

[Brent]

GFS is running... out to Wednesday morning with snow north of OKC. DFW in the low 40s. Low 50s at 18z and then 30s by 0z. Already upper 20s/around 30 at 6z Thursday. Freeze line approaching Austin.

[Ntxw]

GFS is running... out to Wednesday morning with snow north of OKC. DFW in the low 40s. Low 50s at 18z and then 30s by 0z.

General consensus seems to be frontal passage Weds morning to midday. GFS does funny business, sending a front, retreating it, then sending it again. But it's clearly slowing things down and surging the cold dome southwards. It's quietly giving in to the ECMWF. It's also been trending wetter ahead of the front. There's now line of showers ahead which several runs ago there was none.

[Brent]

GFS is running... out to Wednesday morning with snow north of OKC. DFW in the low 40s. Low 50s at 18z and then 30s by 0z.

General consensus seems to be frontal passage Weds morning to midday. GFS does funny business, sending a front, retreating it, then sending it again. But it's clearly slowing things down and surging the cold dome southwards. It's quietly giving in to the ECMWF.

it's definitely trending towards the Euro. 27-28 Thursday morning then only mid 30s at 18z. Austin near 30 degrees, freeze in the northern Houston sububs.

[Ntxw]

By Thursday afternoon, cold front is all the way down to Tampico

[Brent]

Look how far south the cold anomaiies are...

[JayDT]

There we go GFS! Finally trending better I see. I hope it keeps trending colder though.

[Ntxw]

There we go GFS! Finally trending better I see. I hope it keeps trending colder though.

It's been back and forth. Like I said previously I don't get why we would put much stock in it when it hasn't been consistent. In the end, medium range the Euro will likely win again which for the most part has been consistent for this outbreak 7+ days out. As the time has come closer Euro has been starting to better focus on temps.

And I think GFS trying to warm it up on Weds afternoon above 50 is probably bogus. 850 front comes through Tuesday night/Weds morning and thats it for that.

[JayDT]

There we go GFS! Finally trending better I see. I hope it keeps trending colder though.

It's been back and forth. Like I said previously I don't get why we would put much stock in it when it hasn't been consistent. In the end, medium range the Euro will likely win again which for the most part has been consistent for this outbreak 7+ days out. As the time has come closer Euro has been starting to better focus on temps.

I was actually thinking about this earlier. The past few days that i've been model watching with everyone on here, the GFS has been pretty inconsistent while the Euro has been mostly consistent. So I was thinking the GFS obviously has to be the one that is off since it kept changing.

[Ntxw]

Crazy Canadian is still the coldest of the 3. GFS warmest and Euro somewhere in between.



I still want to emphasize still not within 100 hours of the event yet. But we should be expecting frontal passage sometime between Tuesday night and Weds afternoon.

[Ntxw]

Also take notice of the trends (from the GFS) of the 5H vorticity rounding about the trough. Certainly a west and slowing component. Perhaps we may see it dig further south and west still? If it decides to dig into AZ/NM or N Mex then we would have more excitement with winter weather

[JayDT]

Crazy Canadian is still the coldest of the 3. GFS warmest and Euro somewhere in between.



I still want to emphasize still not within 100 hours of the event yet. But we should be expecting frontal passage sometime between Tuesday night and Weds afternoon.

I really like the Crazy Canadian.

[JayDT]

If we could get some winter weather out of this, that would be the icing on the cake. Hopefully things trend that way

[Brent]

GFS has some wintry mischief at 300 hours around DFW

[Ntxw]

GFS has some wintry mischief at 300 hours around DFW

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... cus_45.png

252hrs

[Brent]

well that was a fun run lmao

[Ntxw]

Canadian 240hrs

[JayDT]

So both the GFS and the Candian have that storm around the 13th? Interesting.

[Brent]

If the GFS is right it's gonna be a long time before DFW hits 60 degrees again.

[Ntxw]

While we wait on the Euro, Texas' radar is going to light up tonight into tomorrow morning to follow up on TPB's post of the HRRR. A large chunk of the state will be raining when we wake up. Southeast and central Texas first then further north. Many areas may get December's worth of rain in this single event.



This system dug into Mexico and tapped into the subtropical jet