Texas Winter 2016-2017

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Man, cold weather lovers rolled 7s on that latest run. In the long range past the 19th, all it will take is another 1045 plus with the snow pack to our north and it will be lights out for warm weather for a while.

CAT 5 IN THE GULF!!!

[Ntxw]

Man, cold weather lovers rolled 7s on that latest run. In the long range past the 19th, all it will take is another 1045 plus with the snow pack to our north and it will be lights out for warm weather for a while.

CAT 5 IN THE GULF!!!

We all deserve it after last winter. I never want to experience another Super El Nino winter again . 1982, 1997, and 2015 were all duds...We seem to lose when we get into strong or super anything with ENSO Nino or Nina...

I'm hoping this makeshift "weak Nina" warms through winter. That would benefit us in February. If you're going by SST's the temps for the Nina seem to be collapsing the past few weeks.

[Brent]

Man, cold weather lovers rolled 7s on that latest run. In the long range past the 19th, all it will take is another 1045 plus with the snow pack to our north and it will be lights out for warm weather for a while.

CAT 5 IN THE GULF!!!

We all deserve it after last winter.

We most definitely do...and just think its only December 2nd... DFW's snowiest time isn't even close!

Last winter's thread only managed 184 pages... we're 2 days into this one and already 22 pages.

[Rgv20]

0zGFS Ensemble Member 12....forecast frozen precipitation for a portion of South Texas Friday morning! I will take it and run with it!

[Brent]

Euro still has DFW hitting the 60s Wednesday before the bottom drops. A little rain falls in the evening.

It's colder at 6z Thursday than last run.

Edit" It's warmer on Thursday... is below freezing in the morning but warms into the upper 30s.
'
A couple degrees warmer Friday morning... closer to 26-27 than 23-24 last run.

[TexasF6]

The Crazy Canadian is starting to see freezing rain chances for the Hill Country next week. The trend is our friend right? If the cold air outpaces the moisture and we get overrunning and our return of Winter Wx? Anyone else seeing trends for Winter Wx next week? I also noticed Rgv20 there was an upspring of moisture from your region on one run, but for the following week? I want Champ The Charger fired up and ready to go!!!! ***06Z GFS has a Winter Storm in Central Texas Next Friday***

[1900hurricane]

Getting rather active on the radar out there.

[dhweather]

Man, cold weather lovers rolled 7s on that latest run. In the long range past the 19th, all it will take is another 1045 plus with the snow pack to our north and it will be lights out for warm weather for a while.

CAT 5 IN THE GULF!!!

Beautiful!

[dhweather]

GFS has some wintry mischief at 300 hours around DFW

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... cus_45.png

252hrs

Only two weeks away!


Beats the graveyard dead pattern we had August-October.

[Ralph's Weather]

The Crazy Canadian is starting to see freezing rain chances for the Hill Country next week. The trend is our friend right? If the cold air outpaces the moisture and we get overrunning and our return of Winter Wx? Anyone else seeing trends for Winter Wx next week? I also noticed Rgv20 there was an upspring of moisture from your region on one run, but for the following week? I want Champ The Charger fired up and ready to go!!!! ***06Z GFS has a Winter Storm in Central Texas Next Friday***

Been expecting to start seeing the potential for winter weather show up.

[Portastorm]

The Crazy Canadian is starting to see freezing rain chances for the Hill Country next week. The trend is our friend right? If the cold air outpaces the moisture and we get overrunning and our return of Winter Wx? Anyone else seeing trends for Winter Wx next week? I also noticed Rgv20 there was an upspring of moisture from your region on one run, but for the following week? I want Champ The Charger fired up and ready to go!!!! ***06Z GFS has a Winter Storm in Central Texas Next Friday***

It's called the Crazy Canadian for a reason you know.

Nevertheless, Champ is getting a weekend once-over and will be ready for whatever wintry goodness Mother Nature brings.

[Ntxw]

It's called the Crazy Canadian for a reason you know.

Nevertheless, Champ is getting a weekend once-over and will be ready for whatever wintry goodness Mother Nature brings.

Oh, those PWC Grey Goose swelling mets better not be drinking and driving on the chase this week for wintry conditions

[starsfan65]

It's called the Crazy Canadian for a reason you know.

Nevertheless, Champ is getting a weekend once-over and will be ready for whatever wintry goodness Mother Nature brings.

Oh, those PWC Grey Goose swelling mets better not be drinking and driving on the chase this week for wintry conditions

What is the timing of the cold front now?

[Ntxw]

It's called the Crazy Canadian for a reason you know.

Nevertheless, Champ is getting a weekend once-over and will be ready for whatever wintry goodness Mother Nature brings.

Oh, those PWC Grey Goose swelling mets better not be drinking and driving on the chase this week for wintry conditions

What is the timing of the cold front now?

Model consensus is Tuesday night/Weds morning. Of course with these types of fronts, it may beat the models on timing as cold, dense air has little to no resistance from the North Pole to Texas. Nature of the Great Plains being flat.

[starsfan65]

Oh, those PWC Grey Goose swelling mets better not be drinking and driving on the chase this week for wintry conditions

What is the timing of the cold front now?

Model consensus is Tuesday night/Weds morning. Of course with these types of fronts, it may beat the models on timing as cold, dense air has little to no resistance from the North Pole to Texas. Nature of the Great Plains being flat.

Sometimes they underestimate how cold the temps will be.

[Ralph's Weather]

Can someone explain why recent model runs are showing the heart of the cold heading east with a -PNA? Will the SE ridge really break down that much?

[starsfan65]

Can someone explain why recent model runs are showing the heart of the cold heading east with a -PNA? Will the SE ridge really break down that much?

I don't know why they are saying that?

[Ralph's Weather]

Models look interesting with precip around the front on Wed. They already show some falling in borderline freezing air and if the trend continues Wed afternoon and evening could get interesting.

[northjaxpro]

Can someone explain why recent model runs are showing the heart of the cold heading east with a -PNA? Will the SE ridge really break down that much?

Well, we will see if the models back off with the cold for the Southeast U.S. the next couple of days. However, it seems as if the Southeast U.S. ridge is retreating, therefore the NAO may be trending negative, at least through the middle of this month.

Initially, I was like you in thinking that the Southeast ridge was establishing itself in the guidance going back to last week. But, apparently that has changed.

[Ntxw]

Can someone explain why recent model runs are showing the heart of the cold heading east with a -PNA? Will the SE ridge really break down that much?

What do you mean? It's two paths as typically it usually does. One chunk slides down the slopes of the Rockies with high pressure into Mexico while another chunk coils into cyclogenesis ahead of it. It's your typical outbreak for central and eastern north america. Sometimes cyclogenesis to the northeast is so strong it will tug the air mass to the east for a glancing blow but if the HP influence is stronger it's going due south mostly.

Speaking of Rockies slopes. It always fascinates me how cold, dense air travels and trajectory of cold high domes. Models long range always wants to dig them down into the peaks of the Rockies but nearly every time they go around and ooze down the eastern slopes of the great wall that is the Rocky mts. Path of least resistance.