Texas Winter 2016-2017

[1900hurricane]

I'd watch east of Covington for the cell to cycle back up.

[JDawg512]

Should have gone with my original idea for a target today, which was further north in Temple. I instead went down to Bastrop based on the convective trends at the time. Ooops (not that I was going to get a good view of any tornado anyway, with it becoming dark and all). The cell to the south running into the tornadic cell looks to have disrupted it for the time being at least.

Not far from us Austin folks.. (waves out the window towards the eastern horizon..)

[bubba hotep]

Flash flooding threat for the DFW area would appear to be increasing based on radar. Threat was highlighted earlier this evening by WPC:

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0019
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
712 PM EST SUN JAN 15 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL TX...NORTH TX

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 160011Z - 160526Z

SUMMARY...TWO ROUNDS OF CONVECTION IN RAPID SUCCESSION WITHIN AN
INCREASINGLY EFFICIENT HEAVY RAIN ENVIRONMENT MAY CAUSE FLASH
FLOODING IN URBAN OR OTHER PARTICULARLY SENSITIVE AREAS.

DISCUSSION...THE ENVIRONMENT WAS PERHAPS FOREMOST A SEVERE WEATHER
ENVIRONMENT...BUT THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL SHOULD NOT BE
UNDERESTIMATED AS SOUTH TO NORTH TRAINING BANDS OF CONVECTION WILL
BE QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY A QUASI-LINEAR SYSTEM. LATE AFTERNOON HRRR
RUNS HAD BEEN CONSISTENT AT PRODUCING ISOLATED TOTALS BETWEEN 2
AND 3 INCHES STRADDLING THE WARM FRONT / INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR
THROUGH 05Z. AT 00Z...THE INITIAL STORMS WERE TRAINING FROM ABOUT
190 DEGREES...FOLLOWING THE MEAN LOWER TO MID LEVEL WINDS...AS
BROAD SCALE LIFT INCREASED AHEAD OF THE EJECTING NEGATIVELY TILTED
MID LEVEL WAVE. THERE WAS A CORRESPONDING SUBTLE BACKING OF LOW
LEVEL FLOW OBSERVED PER RAP SOUNDINGS AND VAD WIND PROFILES FROM
FWS/GRK CONTRIBUTING TO THE TRAINING CELL MOTIONS.

OF PARTICULAR CONCERN...ONE-HOUR RAINFALL ESTIMATES FROM KFWS HAD
INCREASED ABOVE 2 INCHES WEST OF WACO AND HILLSBORO. THIS WAS
FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE RADAR AND AWAY FROM MELTING LAYER
ISSUES...SUCH THAT THERE IS LITTLE REASON TO DOUBT THE ESTIMATES.
PW VALUES WERE INCREASING TOWARD 1.4 INCHES IN THIS REGION AND
OTHER FACTORS SUCH AS INCREASING DEEP LAYER ASCENT AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FLUX WILL FAVOR EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION DESPITE
SOME SMALL HAIL.

FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE SOMEWHAT HIGH...BUT GIVEN THE
RECENT RADAR QPE TRENDS THE 3-HOUR FFG VALUES MAY BE EXCEEDED
WHEREVER THE S-N BANDS SET UP IN ADVANCE OF THE SQUALL LINE. WITH
THE WARM FRONT ALSO BISECTING THE DALLAS / FORT WORTH
METROPLEX...URBAN RUNOFF ISSUES MAY BECOME A FACTOR AS WELL.

BURKE

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...

[bubba hotep]

That cell is warned again

[Ntxw]

This storm has a pretty impressive hook. Heads up Tarrant and Dallas county lines (southern areas)

The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
Northeastern Johnson County in north central Texas...

* Until 815 PM CST

* At 744 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Grandview, or 7 miles south of Alvarado, moving
north at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

[bubba hotep]

So far, none of the CASA sites are getting a good look at that cell.

ETA: Now seeing it, looked pretty good just to the W of Venus, TX. Reports of power flashes as well.

[JDawg512]

Tornado warning just west/southwest of Kerrville, radar indicated.

[Ntxw]

Per NBC5 power flashes reported by spotters near Venus

Moving towards Mansfield, I know we have some members from there

[JDawg512]

Okay found WFAA's stream

[Ntxw]

 https://twitter.com/NWSFortWorth/status/820816604187553792

[bubba hotep]

 https://twitter.com/BrianJamesNBC5/status/820818661875351554

[Ntxw]

 https://twitter.com/NWSFortWorth/status/820821230848712704

[gboudx]

Hearing sirens Ntxw?

[Ntxw]

Hearing sirens Ntxw?

Yes and it is pouring. I'm going to have to log off for awhile

[Texas Snowman]

Ntxw, stay safe my friend!

[Texas Snowman]

@DFWscanner - 8:46pm - Confirmed tornado is now in Grand Prairie near the Airport moving north. SEEK SHELTER NOW if you are in these areas.

[Texas Snowman]

@TxStormChasers - Very dangerous situation in Grand Prairie.Confirmed Tornado earlier near GP airport, now moving NE to I-30 and Beltline. Take Shelter! #txwx

[JDawg512]

It's awfully quiet in here for such an active weather night. I hope everyone up in DFW is okay..

[Ntxw]

A little past 8:45pm I saw some green flashes to my southeast, nothing major here though. I'm close to 161 and beltline. Gotten a lot of rain since, a little over 2.5" on gauge. When the main line blew through it was much windier and looked worse than when the cell came through.

[JDawg512]

Tornado warning has been issued for central Kendall County. This storm seems to be edging northeastward towards the Austin Metro area.