Texas Winter 2016-2017

[dhweather]

GOES 16 - GOES 13 comparison:

Just providing a link, the image is super high res and almost 8MB

https://www.nesdis.noaa.gov/sites/defau ... gh_res.jpg

[bubba hotep]

Now we're resorting to "it can still get cold in March!"? My cold-mongering coworker and friend of nearly 30 years is ready to concede that the west coast trof isn't going anywhere anytime soon. He didn't look so happy at the end of the day, today. The models just haven't been predicting the long-range pattern very well. Yes, you can certainly get winter weather across Texas beyond mid February, but it's going to take a major pattern change. Barring that, this may become my dream winter - January 6-8, 2017 was all there was to winter.

I smell a troll lol I'm actually even more encouraged about the 2nd week of February than I was last night.

He is our beloved resident heat miser. During warm times you will find him most prevalent. It can flip though, his heated blankets, lack of biking, and space heaters go in full force when it's below 60. Let him have his fun this week...we'll take over when the calendar flips . We're going to wavebreak (ridge) the Pacific and reverse the warm pattern

Here is the NHEMI view of that image, it is almost textbook -5ish day -PNA loading pattern.



That would basically bottom the -PNA out during the time frame that I have been toying with. Throw in an -EPO and there is another nina like cold blast, but probably via a dry full lat positive tilted trough. Is there any energy hanging back, like in early January, that allows N. Texas to eek out some snow? Or is there SSW driven blocking to lock the cold in giving N. Texas a better chance of timing up a disturbance with the cold?

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Im hoping that the -PNA kicks in a day or two earlier than that

[Ntxw]

Cold front coming through Oklahoma. Will put an end to the much above normal temperatures streak and back to seasonal and slightly below normal temps from NW flow. Torch coming to and end.

[bubba hotep]

Cold front coming through Oklahoma. Will put an end to the much above normal temperatures streak and back to seasonal and slightly below normal temps from NW flow. Torch coming to and end.

http://i63.tinypic.com/2s1k3s2.png

How do we get a Texas wide mesonet? Texas wide mesonet + GOES16 30sec rapid scan + CASA radar 1 min scan during svr wx season... good grief!

[wxman57]

6Z GFS is quite different from the 00Z or 00Z Parallel run. Has snow across NE TX Superbowl evening. Sure, I believe it!

[Texas Snowman]

But if it was sunny and warm, it would be the Gospel truth. We see how you operate Wxman57!

[Ntxw]

SSW is starting to crank up at 10mb after being modeled for almost 2 weeks now. Warming from Asia to NW NA is displacing the strat PV and additional warming will continue to attack. This gives credence to a period of -AO in February. If we time it right with the cold dump via EPO we can lock it in with results of cold into our side of the globe from the AO. -AO dip on cpc charts has some spine to back it now.

[Golf7070]

@judah47: ECMWF model predicting a major mid-winter #warming. Not sure how significant it's to the weather but will make a diff if it is studied later https://twitter.com/judah47/status/8242 ... 20/photo/1
Shared via TweetCaster

[Golf7070]

Ntxw, in these types of scenarios , how long does it take before models/ensembles adjust? I'm confused because of trough back west and what may happen later

[Ntxw]

Ntxw, in these types of scenarios , how long does it take before models/ensembles adjust? I'm confused because of trough back west and what may happen later

Models are in pattern transition period right now. Skill is often lowest. Once you set Pacific and arctic blocking in place their forecast skills increase. We should get a pretty decent idea of how things may play out by week's end. Don't worry about the trough out west, its not a bad thing unless you see it retrograde back out into the GOA. Which at this time is not likely probability.

[CaptinCrunch]

The three-day outlook from Thursday through Saturday looks very much like today, with partly cloudy days and clear cool nights expected. Low temperatures will be near freezing with highs in the 50s.

[Yukon Cornelius]

It actually feels a little bit like the winter season outside again. Temp of 47 with a wind chill of 39-41.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

18Z building a big, 1050+ MB high up near Alaska for next week Thursday. This run could be interesting.

[Brent]

is this cold air ever going to be in forecasting range? TV forecast has temps pushing 70 all next week and at the end of the 10 day...

[TheProfessor]

I see today's GFS runs are teasing me with a Superbowl storm showing me what would be a decent storm. I've played this game way too many times this winter, I'm not falling for it unless 80% of the models are showing it 12 hours out.

[dhweather]

I see today's GFS runs are teasing me with a Superbowl storm showing me what would be a decent storm. I've played this game way too many times this winter, I'm not falling for it unless 80% of the models are showing it 12 hours out.

Hey, it's only two weeks out.

[Golf7070]

Bubba, the 12zeps was much colder and now depicting a -ao, which is a start. It's really not a SSW. More like a MMW event if it happens. Euro is biting hard I think on it. They don't always effect us but they are game changers when they do for us.

[Golf7070]

Bubba, how long does it usually takes for MMW events to propigate to surface if one happens?

[wxman57]

It still looks like some cold air may slip out of Canada by the 2nd week of February. My coworker and I were discussing it yesterday. There is at least a chance that temps in Houston could get down below freezing with this cold push. Nothing to indicate it will be as cold as in the first week of January. Temps below normal (normal is 44/65 here) but nothing nearly as extreme as the low of 21 earlier this month. Perhaps this will be winter's last gasp before the real warm-up for spring.