Texas Winter 2016-2017

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dhweather
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#4101 Postby dhweather » Tue Jan 24, 2017 9:15 pm

GOES 16 - GOES 13 comparison:

Just providing a link, the image is super high res and almost 8MB

https://www.nesdis.noaa.gov/sites/defau ... gh_res.jpg
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#4102 Postby bubba hotep » Tue Jan 24, 2017 9:19 pm

Ntxw wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Now we're resorting to "it can still get cold in March!"? My cold-mongering coworker and friend of nearly 30 years is ready to concede that the west coast trof isn't going anywhere anytime soon. He didn't look so happy at the end of the day, today. The models just haven't been predicting the long-range pattern very well. Yes, you can certainly get winter weather across Texas beyond mid February, but it's going to take a major pattern change. Barring that, this may become my dream winter - January 6-8, 2017 was all there was to winter.


I smell a troll lol I'm actually even more encouraged about the 2nd week of February than I was last night.


He is our beloved resident heat miser. During warm times you will find him most prevalent. It can flip though, his heated blankets, lack of biking, and space heaters go in full force when it's below 60. Let him have his fun this week...we'll take over when the calendar flips :cheesy:. We're going to wavebreak (ridge) the Pacific and reverse the warm pattern :wink:

Image


Here is the NHEMI view of that image, it is almost textbook -5ish day -PNA loading pattern.

Image

That would basically bottom the -PNA out during the time frame that I have been toying with. Throw in an -EPO and there is another nina like cold blast, but probably via a dry full lat positive tilted trough. Is there any energy hanging back, like in early January, that allows N. Texas to eek out some snow? Or is there SSW driven blocking to lock the cold in giving N. Texas a better chance of timing up a disturbance with the cold?
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#4103 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Tue Jan 24, 2017 9:39 pm

Im hoping that the -PNA kicks in a day or two earlier than that :)
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#4104 Postby Ntxw » Tue Jan 24, 2017 10:55 pm

Cold front coming through Oklahoma. Will put an end to the much above normal temperatures streak and back to seasonal and slightly below normal temps from NW flow. Torch coming to and end.

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#4105 Postby bubba hotep » Tue Jan 24, 2017 11:01 pm

Ntxw wrote:Cold front coming through Oklahoma. Will put an end to the much above normal temperatures streak and back to seasonal and slightly below normal temps from NW flow. Torch coming to and end.

http://i63.tinypic.com/2s1k3s2.png


How do we get a Texas wide mesonet? Texas wide mesonet + GOES16 30sec rapid scan + CASA radar 1 min scan during svr wx season... good grief!

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#4106 Postby wxman57 » Wed Jan 25, 2017 9:51 am

6Z GFS is quite different from the 00Z or 00Z Parallel run. Has snow across NE TX Superbowl evening. Sure, I believe it!

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#4107 Postby Texas Snowman » Wed Jan 25, 2017 10:29 am

:uarrow: But if it was sunny and warm, it would be the Gospel truth. We see how you operate Wxman57! :D
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#4108 Postby Ntxw » Wed Jan 25, 2017 10:30 am

SSW is starting to crank up at 10mb after being modeled for almost 2 weeks now. Warming from Asia to NW NA is displacing the strat PV and additional warming will continue to attack. This gives credence to a period of -AO in February. If we time it right with the cold dump via EPO we can lock it in with results of cold into our side of the globe from the AO. -AO dip on cpc charts has some spine to back it now.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#4109 Postby Golf7070 » Wed Jan 25, 2017 10:36 am

@judah47: ECMWF model predicting a major mid-winter #warming. Not sure how significant it's to the weather but will make a diff if it is studied later https://twitter.com/judah47/status/8242 ... 20/photo/1
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#4110 Postby Golf7070 » Wed Jan 25, 2017 10:39 am

Ntxw, in these types of scenarios , how long does it take before models/ensembles adjust? I'm confused because of trough back west and what may happen later
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#4111 Postby Ntxw » Wed Jan 25, 2017 10:50 am

Golf7070 wrote:Ntxw, in these types of scenarios , how long does it take before models/ensembles adjust? I'm confused because of trough back west and what may happen later


Models are in pattern transition period right now. Skill is often lowest. Once you set Pacific and arctic blocking in place their forecast skills increase. We should get a pretty decent idea of how things may play out by week's end. Don't worry about the trough out west, its not a bad thing unless you see it retrograde back out into the GOA. Which at this time is not likely probability.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#4112 Postby CaptinCrunch » Wed Jan 25, 2017 2:07 pm

Image

The three-day outlook from Thursday through Saturday looks very much like today, with partly cloudy days and clear cool nights expected. Low temperatures will be near freezing with highs in the 50s.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#4113 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Wed Jan 25, 2017 4:20 pm

It actually feels a little bit like the winter season outside again. Temp of 47 with a wind chill of 39-41.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#4114 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Wed Jan 25, 2017 5:35 pm

18Z building a big, 1050+ MB high up near Alaska for next week Thursday. This run could be interesting.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#4115 Postby Brent » Wed Jan 25, 2017 5:52 pm

is this cold air ever going to be in forecasting range? TV forecast has temps pushing 70 all next week and at the end of the 10 day...
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#4116 Postby TheProfessor » Wed Jan 25, 2017 6:56 pm

I see today's GFS runs are teasing me with a Superbowl storm showing me what would be a decent storm. I've played this game way too many times this winter, I'm not falling for it unless 80% of the models are showing it 12 hours out. :x
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#4117 Postby dhweather » Wed Jan 25, 2017 7:45 pm

TheProfessor wrote:I see today's GFS runs are teasing me with a Superbowl storm showing me what would be a decent storm. I've played this game way too many times this winter, I'm not falling for it unless 80% of the models are showing it 12 hours out. :x


Hey, it's only two weeks out. :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#4118 Postby Golf7070 » Wed Jan 25, 2017 7:51 pm

Bubba, the 12zeps was much colder and now depicting a -ao, which is a start. It's really not a SSW. More like a MMW event if it happens. Euro is biting hard I think on it. They don't always effect us but they are game changers when they do for us.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#4119 Postby Golf7070 » Wed Jan 25, 2017 8:08 pm

Bubba, how long does it usually takes for MMW events to propigate to surface if one happens?
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#4120 Postby wxman57 » Thu Jan 26, 2017 9:24 am

It still looks like some cold air may slip out of Canada by the 2nd week of February. My coworker and I were discussing it yesterday. There is at least a chance that temps in Houston could get down below freezing with this cold push. Nothing to indicate it will be as cold as in the first week of January. Temps below normal (normal is 44/65 here) but nothing nearly as extreme as the low of 21 earlier this month. Perhaps this will be winter's last gasp before the real warm-up for spring.
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