2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[OuterBanker]

I haven't seen the ECMWF Bastardi was referring to on his Saturday summary, but apparently there is a product he said looks at centering on what it believes will be hot spots this year. He referenced middle of the Gulf, Bahamas/just off SE Coast (definite hotspot the last 2 seasons) and off the US East Coast maybe a bit north of the Chesapeake Bay.

He's probably talking about the EC Seasonal Density Anomaly graphic. Below is a piece of it. There is a small red blob in the southern Gulf and another near the Bahamas. I don't know that such small pockets are significant compared to the much larger area of low activity east of the Caribbean.

Thanks Wxman for that post. I now see what he's talking about.

Of interest is the lower than average in the MDR which I expected. The much lower activity in the epac next to the Mexican coast I didn't. That anomaly could have a rather significant effect on the Atlantic basin and the GOM.

[srainhoutx]

HGX oppines this afternoon regarding the Tropics:

.TROPICS... The GFS, Canadian and ECMWF all show some type of low pressure system trying to develop in the southern Gulf of Mexico late next weekend into the following week (June 18/19). Models diverge significantly on the eventual track and intensity of the system. Models tend to over forecast these systems (days 7-10) particularly early in the tropical season. It`s always a good idea to keep up with the latest forecasts and stay prepared during hurricane season. 43

[Alyono]

HGX oppines this afternoon regarding the Tropics:

.TROPICS... The GFS, Canadian and ECMWF all show some type of low pressure system trying to develop in the southern Gulf of Mexico late next weekend into the following week (June 18/19). Models diverge significantly on the eventual track and intensity of the system. Models tend to over forecast these systems (days 7-10) particularly early in the tropical season. It`s always a good idea to keep up with the latest forecasts and stay prepared during hurricane season. 43

NWS HGX should know that model canes typically do not occur when every single model is developing the same system, and when that system is synoptic scale

[Steve]

Thanks 57. Those are the areas he pointed to in the discussion.

[srainhoutx]

HGX oppines this afternoon regarding the Tropics:

.TROPICS... The GFS, Canadian and ECMWF all show some type of low pressure system trying to develop in the southern Gulf of Mexico late next weekend into the following week (June 18/19). Models diverge significantly on the eventual track and intensity of the system. Models tend to over forecast these systems (days 7-10) particularly early in the tropical season. It`s always a good idea to keep up with the latest forecasts and stay prepared during hurricane season. 43

NWS HGX should know that model canes typically do not occur when every single model is developing the same system, and when that system is synoptic scale

I have absolutely no argument with your response.

[gatorcane]

GFS parallel stronger and has it more east on this run, day 10 below

[tarheelprogrammer]

GFS parallel stronger and has it more east on this run, day 10 below

GFS though is weaker this run, and I believe it is more west. Waves coming off Africa, but none are able to develop in the Caribbean. Para has it at 975 mb hitting around Texas/Mexico border.

[tarheelprogrammer]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/873673250324307968

[tatertawt24]

GFS parallel stronger and has it more east on this run, day 10 below

It looks like they're expecting the entire GoM to become a hurricane.

[TheStormExpert]

GFS parallel stronger and has it more east on this run, day 10 below

It looks like they're expecting the entire GoM to become a hurricane.

When is the last time that happened?

Not saying a big hurricane won't be in the GoM at some point this season but it is just too soon, conditions are not even close to being favorable enough for that kind of storm.

[Yellow Evan]

Alex 10 happened in late June so a GOM hurricane is not impossible.

[TheStormExpert]

:uarrow: Alex 10 happened in late June so a GOM hurricane is not impossible.

Yeah forgot about that one.

[Stormcenter]

It makes you think hmmmmmmm when the major models keep on hyping this (tropical development) so far out. IMO

[KatDaddy]

Yep Stormcenter it's time to watch the tropics. The models continue to sniff development

[dexterlabio]

Looks like we're going to have a real threat this early in the season.

[Kingarabian]

The GFS's imagination is running wild in its 00z run:

[South Texas Storms]

0z GFS and GFS Parallel are indicating that a TS or Hurricane will make landfall between Tampico and Brownsville in 10-14 days.

0z Canadian continues to indicate that system will make landfall in the Florida Panhandle in 8-10 days.

We'll see what the Euro shows in about 2 hours.

[South Texas Storms]

The GFS's imagination is running wild in its 00z run:

]http://i.imgur.com/PRxwtfB.gif

Yeah haha. 0z GFS Parallel looks much more reasonable.

[Cpv17]

It's beginning to look more and more likely that a storm will form, but who knows where it goes? Mexico to Florida is my best bet lol

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro down to 1001mb in the GOM @ hr 216.