wxman57 wrote:Steve wrote:I haven't seen the ECMWF Bastardi was referring to on his Saturday summary, but apparently there is a product he said looks at centering on what it believes will be hot spots this year. He referenced middle of the Gulf, Bahamas/just off SE Coast (definite hotspot the last 2 seasons) and off the US East Coast maybe a bit north of the Chesapeake Bay.
He's probably talking about the EC Seasonal Density Anomaly graphic. Below is a piece of it. There is a small red blob in the southern Gulf and another near the Bahamas. I don't know that such small pockets are significant compared to the much larger area of low activity east of the Caribbean.
Thanks Wxman for that post. I now see what he's talking about.
Of interest is the lower than average in the MDR which I expected. The much lower activity in the epac next to the Mexican coast I didn't. That anomaly could have a rather significant effect on the Atlantic basin and the GOM.