Possible development in Western Caribbean - (Is INVEST 93L)

[TheStormExpert]

With the trough being setup along the eastern U.S. lately it's hard to ignore the eastern solutions.

[Alyono]

starting to think that this heads to Florida.

[stormlover2013]

Until euro and ukmet are on board then I am not going with gfs and cmc lol

[RL3AO]

Last 12 runs of the GFS verifying Tuesday morning. Certainly a trend towards less ridging over the deep south.

[psyclone]

It sure has that classic, early season formative look. Regardless of eventual track, deep moisture looks to remain parked over Florida...we've morphed from a smoldering fire pit to a lush, skeeter infested swamp in a few weeks. there seems to be some credence to the more easterly track with cooler than normal temps headed for the great lakes/Ohio/TN valleys noted in the 6-10 day outlook. Looks invest tag worthy now.

[gatorcane]

12Z UKMET just in still sending this BOC then Mexico bound. Hard to go against climo with the Eastern Gulf solution but I have for now. Curious what the upcoming ECMWF solution brings. Battle between the European and North American models is on...

[weathaguyry]

Nice plume of moisture starting to creep north...

[Hurricaneman]

12Z UKMET just in still sending this BOC then Mexico bound. Hard to go against climo with the Eastern Gulf solution but I have for now. Curious what the upcoming ECMWF solution brings. Battle between the European and North American models is on...

Based on the 0zeuro there seems to be a northward trend before heading for th BOC so maybe it's trending towards the models heading for the Florida panhandle

[Stormcenter]

Consensus split in middle between the major models.....upper TX/SW LA. maybe?

12Z UKMET just in still sending this BOC then Mexico bound. Hard to go against climo with the Eastern Gulf solution but I have for now. Curious what the upcoming ECMWF solution brings. Battle between the European and North American models is on...

[BobHarlem]

My guess it's a rainmaker for Florida, and may develop, or split the energy, some west, some east. There's nothing developed yet, so until then watch the thoughts split based on wherever someone is from.

[Hurricaneman]

Looks like it's starting to go into a development phase and maybe trying to develop a low north of Honduras

[ronyan]

Consensus split in middle between the major models.....upper TX/SW LA. maybe?

12Z UKMET just in still sending this BOC then Mexico bound. Hard to go against climo with the Eastern Gulf solution but I have for now. Curious what the upcoming ECMWF solution brings. Battle between the European and North American models is on...

If it misses the trough I would think it just gets shoved to the west into MX/S TX. Not sure it makes sense to split the difference in this case.

[cycloneye]

A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea and the Yucatan peninsula this
weekend. Conditions appear to be favorable for gradual development
of this system while it moves slowly northwestward toward the
southern Gulf of Mexico early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[Alyono]

Consensus split in middle between the major models.....upper TX/SW LA. maybe?

12Z UKMET just in still sending this BOC then Mexico bound. Hard to go against climo with the Eastern Gulf solution but I have for now. Curious what the upcoming ECMWF solution brings. Battle between the European and North American models is on...

that is the area that has very little chance. You CANNOT go with the center of a bifurcation. That is the solution that has no chance of happening

[Steve]

Consensus split in middle between the major models.....upper TX/SW LA. maybe?

12Z UKMET just in still sending this BOC then Mexico bound. Hard to go against climo with the Eastern Gulf solution but I have for now. Curious what the upcoming ECMWF solution brings. Battle between the European and North American models is on...

If it misses the trough I would think it just gets shoved to the west into MX/S TX. Not sure it makes sense to split the difference in this case.

Splitting the difference may well be what GFS is now doing on the operational run where it stays pretty disorganized but a strong piece (possibly a secondary rotation around the broader low) does come up into Florida. The overall circulation should get farther west than the CMC is showing at 12Z, which has now shifted back to landfall near Gulf/Franklin Counties just SE of Panama City Beach at 994mb and approximately 132 hours from the run. 132 hours from 7am this morning means landfall in Florida near Apalachicola and Cape San Blas on Tuesday Night at 7ish which is faster than it had been showing prior. QPF has been underestimating precipitation coming out of the tropics this year. If GFS latches onto a more organized solution, I think the rainfall totals it reflects will go up.

[RL3AO]

^^^^^

That's the Joaquin type thinking. Some models show SC. Some show Bermuda. So it's probably going to New York City. That doesn't make sense.

(Of course, for some time the NHC forecasts showed NYC in the center of the cone, but that's for a different thread...)

[BobHarlem]

Alan Brammer's generated forecast path for this system is leaning toward the right. (This is experimental, don't take the positions as accurate at all) The Euro is not latching onto this area at all.




(Comes from: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/ab ... s/genesis/ )

[gatorcane]

12Z NAVGEM shifts east:

[tailgater]

Yes a slight shift to the east but a good bit stronger system

[wxman57]

I'm not buying the eastern solution, as I don't believe that development will occur just south of Cuba. I expect a larger low developing over the northern Yucatan that won't get picked up by the east coast trof. West track into northern Mexico (slow west track). Not ruling out a FL threat yet, but I think it's less likely.