Possible development in Western Caribbean - (Is INVEST 93L)
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Re: Possible development in Western Caribbean
With the trough being setup along the eastern U.S. lately it's hard to ignore the eastern solutions.
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Re: Possible development in Western Caribbean
Until euro and ukmet are on board then I am not going with gfs and cmc lol
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Re: Possible development in Western Caribbean
Last 12 runs of the GFS verifying Tuesday morning. Certainly a trend towards less ridging over the deep south.


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Re: Possible development in Western Caribbean
It sure has that classic, early season formative look. Regardless of eventual track, deep moisture looks to remain parked over Florida...we've morphed from a smoldering fire pit to a lush, skeeter infested swamp in a few weeks. there seems to be some credence to the more easterly track with cooler than normal temps headed for the great lakes/Ohio/TN valleys noted in the 6-10 day outlook. Looks invest tag worthy now.
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- gatorcane
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Re: Possible development in Western Caribbean
12Z UKMET just in still sending this BOC then Mexico bound. Hard to go against climo with the Eastern Gulf solution but I have for now. Curious what the upcoming ECMWF solution brings. Battle between the European and North American models is on...
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- weathaguyry
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Re: Possible development in Western Caribbean
Nice plume of moisture starting to creep north...


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Re: Possible development in Western Caribbean
gatorcane wrote:12Z UKMET just in still sending this BOC then Mexico bound. Hard to go against climo with the Eastern Gulf solution but I have for now. Curious what the upcoming ECMWF solution brings. Battle between the European and North American models is on...
Based on the 0zeuro there seems to be a northward trend before heading for th BOC so maybe it's trending towards the models heading for the Florida panhandle
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Re: Possible development in Western Caribbean
Consensus split in middle between the major models.....upper TX/SW LA. maybe?
gatorcane wrote:12Z UKMET just in still sending this BOC then Mexico bound. Hard to go against climo with the Eastern Gulf solution but I have for now. Curious what the upcoming ECMWF solution brings. Battle between the European and North American models is on...
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Re: Possible development in Western Caribbean
My guess it's a rainmaker for Florida, and may develop, or split the energy, some west, some east. There's nothing developed yet, so until then watch the thoughts split based on wherever someone is from.
Last edited by BobHarlem on Thu Jun 15, 2017 12:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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- Hurricaneman
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Re: Possible development in Western Caribbean
Looks like it's starting to go into a development phase and maybe trying to develop a low north of Honduras
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Re: Possible development in Western Caribbean
Stormcenter wrote:Consensus split in middle between the major models.....upper TX/SW LA. maybe?gatorcane wrote:12Z UKMET just in still sending this BOC then Mexico bound. Hard to go against climo with the Eastern Gulf solution but I have for now. Curious what the upcoming ECMWF solution brings. Battle between the European and North American models is on...
If it misses the trough I would think it just gets shoved to the west into MX/S TX. Not sure it makes sense to split the difference in this case.
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- cycloneye
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Re: Possible development in Western Caribbean
A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea and the Yucatan peninsula this
weekend. Conditions appear to be favorable for gradual development
of this system while it moves slowly northwestward toward the
southern Gulf of Mexico early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
northwestern Caribbean Sea and the Yucatan peninsula this
weekend. Conditions appear to be favorable for gradual development
of this system while it moves slowly northwestward toward the
southern Gulf of Mexico early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

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Re: Possible development in Western Caribbean
Stormcenter wrote:Consensus split in middle between the major models.....upper TX/SW LA. maybe?gatorcane wrote:12Z UKMET just in still sending this BOC then Mexico bound. Hard to go against climo with the Eastern Gulf solution but I have for now. Curious what the upcoming ECMWF solution brings. Battle between the European and North American models is on...
that is the area that has very little chance. You CANNOT go with the center of a bifurcation. That is the solution that has no chance of happening
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Re: Possible development in Western Caribbean
ronyan wrote:Stormcenter wrote:Consensus split in middle between the major models.....upper TX/SW LA. maybe?gatorcane wrote:12Z UKMET just in still sending this BOC then Mexico bound. Hard to go against climo with the Eastern Gulf solution but I have for now. Curious what the upcoming ECMWF solution brings. Battle between the European and North American models is on...
If it misses the trough I would think it just gets shoved to the west into MX/S TX. Not sure it makes sense to split the difference in this case.
Splitting the difference may well be what GFS is now doing on the operational run where it stays pretty disorganized but a strong piece (possibly a secondary rotation around the broader low) does come up into Florida. The overall circulation should get farther west than the CMC is showing at 12Z, which has now shifted back to landfall near Gulf/Franklin Counties just SE of Panama City Beach at 994mb and approximately 132 hours from the run. 132 hours from 7am this morning means landfall in Florida near Apalachicola and Cape San Blas on Tuesday Night at 7ish which is faster than it had been showing prior. QPF has been underestimating precipitation coming out of the tropics this year. If GFS latches onto a more organized solution, I think the rainfall totals it reflects will go up.
Last edited by Steve on Thu Jun 15, 2017 12:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Possible development in Western Caribbean
^^^^^
That's the Joaquin type thinking. Some models show SC. Some show Bermuda. So it's probably going to New York City. That doesn't make sense.
(Of course, for some time the NHC forecasts showed NYC in the center of the cone, but that's for a different thread...)
That's the Joaquin type thinking. Some models show SC. Some show Bermuda. So it's probably going to New York City. That doesn't make sense.
(Of course, for some time the NHC forecasts showed NYC in the center of the cone, but that's for a different thread...)
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Re: Possible development in Western Caribbean
Alan Brammer's generated forecast path for this system is leaning toward the right. (This is experimental, don't take the positions as accurate at all) The Euro is not latching onto this area at all.

(Comes from: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/ab ... s/genesis/ )

(Comes from: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/ab ... s/genesis/ )
Last edited by BobHarlem on Thu Jun 15, 2017 1:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Possible development in Western Caribbean



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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- wxman57
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Re: Possible development in Western Caribbean
I'm not buying the eastern solution, as I don't believe that development will occur just south of Cuba. I expect a larger low developing over the northern Yucatan that won't get picked up by the east coast trof. West track into northern Mexico (slow west track). Not ruling out a FL threat yet, but I think it's less likely.
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