ATL: CINDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: THREE- Potential Tropical Cyclone

#761 Postby RL3AO » Mon Jun 19, 2017 8:05 pm

"No model is right. Some models are useful."

If you can remember that, then model runs can be viewed as tools and their differences as uncertainty.
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Re: ATL: THREE - Models

#762 Postby RL3AO » Mon Jun 19, 2017 8:06 pm

tolakram wrote:Horrible performance. :)

The GFS even had a weak TS approaching Trinidad tonight. Obviously an absurd forecast in June!
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Re: ATL: THREE- Potential Tropical Cyclone

#763 Postby jlauderdal » Mon Jun 19, 2017 8:07 pm

ROCK wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:
RL3AO wrote:You guys realize the models get better year after year, right?
yes they are getting better but to me the real issue is how differently the solutions are with each run and even within a given model we see some large scale differences run to run...the atmosphere is very dynamic but 6 or 12 hours later we see really large track differences, thats not good



we cant have model agreement...where is the fun with that? We wouldn't have a 2K if the ALL the models were 100% correct.... :D
for sure

would be good to see the gfs and euro at least have similar ideas...euro and gfs were completely at odds with the ridging with this system and we see this problem over and over
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Re: ATL: THREE- Potential Tropical Cyclone

#764 Postby Alyono » Mon Jun 19, 2017 8:07 pm

This storm has shown the great performance of modeling. This development was foreseen 10 days ago, and confidence was high that something would enter the Gulf

People need to actually take the time to understand models before commenting on them
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Re: ATL: THREE- Potential Tropical Cyclone

#765 Postby lrak » Mon Jun 19, 2017 8:08 pm

jlauderdal wrote:
BobHarlem wrote:Are folks effectively wobble watching a non-even tropical cyclone? Look at the water vapor, wide view, everything is to the east of the system. Landfall won't matter much with this system, and trying to make sense of any center right now is going to drive folks mad.

 https://twitter.com/NWSWPC/status/876920644474195968




well now that we can get watches and warnings without a named system the wobble watching will become even more intense early on...have fun watching a wobble without a center, haha


there is a little burst of convection where the last visible satellite had the center located about an hour ago, maybe infer red or water vaper will show us if something is going later tonight.
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Re: ATL: THREE- Potential Tropical Cyclone

#766 Postby RL3AO » Mon Jun 19, 2017 8:09 pm

jlauderdal wrote:for sure

would be good to see the gfs and euro at least have similar ideas...euro and gfs were completely at odds with the ridging with this system and we see this problem over and over


Those differences are useful information. The fact that the GFS and Euro have had fairly significant differences with steering at a short timeframe isn't a sign that the models suck. It's a sign that there is an unusually complex setup where small changes in observations and even afternoon thunderstorms are leading to significant divergence in model forecasts.
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Re: ATL: THREE- Potential Tropical Cyclone

#767 Postby NDG » Mon Jun 19, 2017 8:09 pm

RL3AO wrote:You guys realize the models get better year after year, right?


Overall yes, but they still have their good and bad years, IMO.
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Re: ATL: THREE- Potential Tropical Cyclone

#768 Postby ronyan » Mon Jun 19, 2017 8:13 pm

I'm thinking that with AI advancing at the speed it is we will probably see dramatic improvement in the models over the next 10 years.
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Re: ATL: THREE- Potential Tropical Cyclone

#769 Postby tolakram » Mon Jun 19, 2017 8:14 pm

GOES16 IR loop
Image
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Re: ATL: THREE- Potential Tropical Cyclone

#770 Postby jlauderdal » Mon Jun 19, 2017 8:17 pm

Alyono wrote:This storm has shown the great performance of modeling. This development was foreseen 10 days ago, and confidence was high that something would enter the Gulf

People need to actually take the time to understand models before commenting on them


from a development perspective they were great way out in time but late last week and this weekend we had one going to texas/mx and one going to the panhandle, if thats how its supposed to work then you can say it was successful
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Re: ATL: THREE- Potential Tropical Cyclone

#771 Postby RL3AO » Mon Jun 19, 2017 8:24 pm

Alyono wrote:This storm has shown the great performance of modeling. This development was foreseen 10 days ago, and confidence was high that something would enter the Gulf

People need to actually take the time to understand models before commenting on them


I knew modeling was insanely complex. Then, I started reading a bunch of CCEW papers. The number of assumptions that go into modeling waves and convection in the tropics is mind-blowing. It's a miracle these models work at all beyond a day.
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Re: ATL: THREE - Models

#772 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Jun 19, 2017 8:24 pm

RL3AO wrote:
tolakram wrote:Horrible performance. :)

The GFS even had a weak TS approaching Trinidad tonight. Obviously an absurd forecast in June!

Lets hope the GFS continues to be good at the 10 day range as it was for Bret and future Cindy
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Re: ATL: THREE- Potential Tropical Cyclone

#773 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Jun 19, 2017 8:28 pm

Alyono wrote:This storm has shown the great performance of modeling. This development was foreseen 10 days ago, and confidence was high that something would enter the Gulf

People need to actually take the time to understand models before commenting on them


The GFS did a great job with Bret too so here's hoping for more good things from the models, the GFS even got the location correct for both systems
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Re: ATL: THREE - Models

#774 Postby NDG » Mon Jun 19, 2017 8:32 pm

Not too often that you see a system pull moisture from both the EPAC and Atlantic Basin.

Image
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Re: ATL: THREE- Potential Tropical Cyclone

#775 Postby Alyono » Mon Jun 19, 2017 8:34 pm

RL3AO wrote:
Alyono wrote:This storm has shown the great performance of modeling. This development was foreseen 10 days ago, and confidence was high that something would enter the Gulf

People need to actually take the time to understand models before commenting on them


I knew modeling was insanely complex. Then, I started reading a bunch of CCEW papers. The number of assumptions that go into modeling waves and convection in the tropics is mind-blowing. It's a miracle these models work at all beyond a day.


that's why you can change the paraeterizations and create an ensemble that way
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Re: ATL: THREE- Potential Tropical Cyclone

#776 Postby Steve820 » Mon Jun 19, 2017 8:36 pm

This looks very disorganized due to shear but I predict it will be Cindy by tomorrow. I like the "Potential Tropical Cyclone" thing the NHC started to do this year. Watch out for heavy rain and flooding, Louisiana and surrounding areas!
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Re: ATL: THREE - Models

#777 Postby RL3AO » Mon Jun 19, 2017 8:38 pm

NDG wrote:Not too often that you see a system pull moisture from both the EPAC and Atlantic Basin.


It was the classical Central America monsoon gyre set-up. Feels like we've been talking about it for two weeks now.
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Re: ATL: THREE- Potential Tropical Cyclone

#778 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Jun 19, 2017 8:38 pm

The 00Z MMMD sounding has become considerably more moist through the column than the last 12Z, although it probably is no longer a good representation of the western side of the circulation. The random increase in surface temperature and dewpoint is something I'm skeptical of actually existing, but that doesn't change the overall nature of the saturated profile with PWs >2.5". Both MMMD and KEYW support efficient rainfall processes and convective tops around -80*C.

Image

On the other hand, shear in the KLIX sounding has continued to increase. The subtropical jet above the station is cranking at about 65 kt.

Image
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Re: ATL: THREE- Potential Tropical Cyclone

#779 Postby hriverajr » Mon Jun 19, 2017 8:38 pm

Using Goes 16 Band 7 "Shortwave Window" You can still see the primary eddies(looks like 2) moving west.. quite interesting.
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Re: ATL: THREE- Potential Tropical Cyclone

#780 Postby RL3AO » Mon Jun 19, 2017 8:42 pm

hriverajr wrote:Using Goes 16 Band 7 "Shortwave Window" You can still see the primary eddies(looks like 2) moving west.. quite interesting.

Image
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