ATL: CINDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[RL3AO]

"No model is right. Some models are useful."

If you can remember that, then model runs can be viewed as tools and their differences as uncertainty.

[RL3AO]

Horrible performance.

The GFS even had a weak TS approaching Trinidad tonight. Obviously an absurd forecast in June!

[jlauderdal]

You guys realize the models get better year after year, right?

yes they are getting better but to me the real issue is how differently the solutions are with each run and even within a given model we see some large scale differences run to run...the atmosphere is very dynamic but 6 or 12 hours later we see really large track differences, thats not good

we cant have model agreement...where is the fun with that? We wouldn't have a 2K if the ALL the models were 100% correct....

for sure

would be good to see the gfs and euro at least have similar ideas...euro and gfs were completely at odds with the ridging with this system and we see this problem over and over

[Alyono]

This storm has shown the great performance of modeling. This development was foreseen 10 days ago, and confidence was high that something would enter the Gulf

People need to actually take the time to understand models before commenting on them

[lrak]

Are folks effectively wobble watching a non-even tropical cyclone? Look at the water vapor, wide view, everything is to the east of the system. Landfall won't matter much with this system, and trying to make sense of any center right now is going to drive folks mad.

 https://twitter.com/NWSWPC/status/876920644474195968

well now that we can get watches and warnings without a named system the wobble watching will become even more intense early on...have fun watching a wobble without a center, haha

there is a little burst of convection where the last visible satellite had the center located about an hour ago, maybe infer red or water vaper will show us if something is going later tonight.

[RL3AO]

for sure

would be good to see the gfs and euro at least have similar ideas...euro and gfs were completely at odds with the ridging with this system and we see this problem over and over

Those differences are useful information. The fact that the GFS and Euro have had fairly significant differences with steering at a short timeframe isn't a sign that the models suck. It's a sign that there is an unusually complex setup where small changes in observations and even afternoon thunderstorms are leading to significant divergence in model forecasts.

[NDG]

You guys realize the models get better year after year, right?

Overall yes, but they still have their good and bad years, IMO.

[ronyan]

I'm thinking that with AI advancing at the speed it is we will probably see dramatic improvement in the models over the next 10 years.

[tolakram]

GOES16 IR loop

[jlauderdal]

This storm has shown the great performance of modeling. This development was foreseen 10 days ago, and confidence was high that something would enter the Gulf

People need to actually take the time to understand models before commenting on them

from a development perspective they were great way out in time but late last week and this weekend we had one going to texas/mx and one going to the panhandle, if thats how its supposed to work then you can say it was successful

[RL3AO]

This storm has shown the great performance of modeling. This development was foreseen 10 days ago, and confidence was high that something would enter the Gulf

People need to actually take the time to understand models before commenting on them

I knew modeling was insanely complex. Then, I started reading a bunch of CCEW papers. The number of assumptions that go into modeling waves and convection in the tropics is mind-blowing. It's a miracle these models work at all beyond a day.

[Hurricaneman]

Horrible performance.

The GFS even had a weak TS approaching Trinidad tonight. Obviously an absurd forecast in June!

Lets hope the GFS continues to be good at the 10 day range as it was for Bret and future Cindy

[Hurricaneman]

This storm has shown the great performance of modeling. This development was foreseen 10 days ago, and confidence was high that something would enter the Gulf

People need to actually take the time to understand models before commenting on them

The GFS did a great job with Bret too so here's hoping for more good things from the models, the GFS even got the location correct for both systems

[NDG]

Not too often that you see a system pull moisture from both the EPAC and Atlantic Basin.

[Alyono]

This storm has shown the great performance of modeling. This development was foreseen 10 days ago, and confidence was high that something would enter the Gulf

People need to actually take the time to understand models before commenting on them

I knew modeling was insanely complex. Then, I started reading a bunch of CCEW papers. The number of assumptions that go into modeling waves and convection in the tropics is mind-blowing. It's a miracle these models work at all beyond a day.

that's why you can change the paraeterizations and create an ensemble that way

[Steve820]

This looks very disorganized due to shear but I predict it will be Cindy by tomorrow. I like the "Potential Tropical Cyclone" thing the NHC started to do this year. Watch out for heavy rain and flooding, Louisiana and surrounding areas!

[RL3AO]

Not too often that you see a system pull moisture from both the EPAC and Atlantic Basin.

It was the classical Central America monsoon gyre set-up. Feels like we've been talking about it for two weeks now.

[1900hurricane]

The 00Z MMMD sounding has become considerably more moist through the column than the last 12Z, although it probably is no longer a good representation of the western side of the circulation. The random increase in surface temperature and dewpoint is something I'm skeptical of actually existing, but that doesn't change the overall nature of the saturated profile with PWs >2.5". Both MMMD and KEYW support efficient rainfall processes and convective tops around -80*C.



On the other hand, shear in the KLIX sounding has continued to increase. The subtropical jet above the station is cranking at about 65 kt.

[hriverajr]

Using Goes 16 Band 7 "Shortwave Window" You can still see the primary eddies(looks like 2) moving west.. quite interesting.

[RL3AO]

Using Goes 16 Band 7 "Shortwave Window" You can still see the primary eddies(looks like 2) moving west.. quite interesting.