ATL: CINDY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

Mid-layer Troposphere continues to warm up.

Off-scale rain rate in the convection.
COD analysis shows a 2mb pressure drop in the last hour.
Vort max now up to 15.

I like the new NHC convention of PTC which is now enabling AMSU analysis before a storm is named.
Core-temp profile shown below.

[GCANE]

Surface pressure, Mid GOM buoy to the NW of the CoC

[GCANE]

Convection rapidly intensifying as indicated by the sudden drop in cloud-top tempertures.
Still a lot of shear though.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

[Aric Dunn]

I see the center has reformed to the nw over the last few hours...

[GCANE]

Closest sounding I can find to the CoC

[RL3AO]

First light visible. Looks like the center is at least a little closer to the convection. I also suspect the first couple hours of visible imagery will let NHC name this Cindy.

[Dean4Storms]

I know it can be deceiving going by just imagery with a sheared system like this, but 03L looks like it is running a bit east of NHC forecast track this morning and certainly not turning more westward per the ECM ensembles.

Speed animation way up and rock it.......http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/03L/flash-vis-long.html

[HurricaneBrain]

Track continues to shift west.

[RL3AO]

It's obviously still sheared like most June systems. It's still fun to track though. Also, notice the new deep convection firing closer to the N side of the center in the last few frames of the loop.

[NDG]

This is from an oil rig just to the north of the coc.

KATP (Green Canyon 78(OIL), LA, US)

Conditions at: KATP observed 20 June 2017 11:15 UTC
Temperature: 25.0°C (77°F)
Dewpoint: 24.0°C (75°F) [RH = 94%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.62 inches Hg (1003.1 mb)
Winds: from the E (80 degrees) at 55 MPH (48 knots; 25.0 m/s)
Visibility: 0.75 miles (1.21 km)
Ceiling: 900 feet AGL
Clouds: broken clouds at 900 feet AGL
overcast cloud deck at 1400 feet AGL
Present Weather: BR (mist)

KATP 201115Z AUTO 08048KT 3/4SM BR BKN009 OVC014 25/24 A2962 RMK A01
Conditions at: KATP observed 20 June 2017 10:55 UTC
Temperature: 25.0°C (77°F)
Dewpoint: 24.0°C (75°F) [RH = 94%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.62 inches Hg (1003.1 mb)
Winds: from the E (80 degrees) at 47 MPH (41 knots; 21.3 m/s)
gusting to 56 MPH (49 knots; 25.5 m/s)
Visibility: 2.00 miles (3.22 km)
Ceiling: 1400 feet AGL
Clouds: broken clouds at 1400 feet AGL
broken clouds at 5500 feet AGL
overcast cloud deck at 10000 feet AGL
Present Weather: BR (mist)

[Aric Dunn]

There is definitely some funky re structureing of the llc this morning. There are multiple kinks in the low level cloud structure.

[RL3AO]

Nice view of the strong tower going up north of the center this morning.

[RL3AO]

There is definitely some funky re structureing of the llc this morning. There are multiple kinks in the low level cloud structure.

Still looks like two main vorticies rotating southward and around the broad region of rotation.

[SouthDadeFish]

There is definitely some funky re structureing of the llc this morning. There are multiple kinks in the low level cloud structure.

I was just about to comment on this. The low-level structure looks pretty elongated N-S this morning, with multiple eddies embedded within a broader circulation. It's possible the recent bursts of convection to the north are trying to generate a new low-level vorticity maximum closer to the convection. As of now, it's your usual sloppy June Gulf TC

Remember, don't pay attention to just the center location. Most of the bad weather and rain extends hundreds of miles to the east of any center of circulation:

[NDG]

The system has been moving more NNW than NW during the night, IMO.
Looking at the visible satellite pix like Aric said there are multiple eddys still rotating around, I estimate the COC near 25.7N & 90.2W.

[caneman]

In addition, looking at water vapor as of right now, I don't see how Texas gets this or any meaningful rainfall. Looks like Lousiana to Fl. Panhandle will get hammered with rain. Things can still change. Typical sloppy June system

[NDG]

Zoomed in loop.

[GCANE]

Zoomed in loop.

That one hot-tower is shooting out some serious cirrus

[sphelps8681]

Texas is still in the cone and yes things can change. But as of right now we still have models projecting a path our way. The rain over to the east is the most important aspect of this storm but if my location which could get a direct hit I would still experience strong winds and rain which can do damage as well.

[dexterlabio]

Very 2016 Colin.