2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[stormhunter7]

:roflmao:

https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/884454845029265409

This truly will be a battle of the models starting late tomorrow!

[Hurricane Andrew]

My BS flag is still raised until the EURO and/or UKMET join in with significant development.

[Emmett_Brown]

If the GFS is upgraded tomorrow, I guess this means that our phantom storm is history in 24 hours?

[Hurricane Andrew]

If the GFS is upgraded tomorrow, I guess this means that our phantom storm is history in 24 hours?

The EURO is upgrated tomorrow, the GFS on 19/July.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Not much model support but it's a good read by Dr. Masters

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/ex-td ... ar-bahamas

[Siker]

Are the GFS ensembles set to be upgraded at the same time? Is that something that happens automatically with each upgrade cycle, i.e. the ensembles are just a percentage resolution of whatever the Operational GFS is?

[wxman57]

Just a note to remind everyone that the ECMWF is being upgraded today. The 12Z run will be the first run of the upgraded model:

https://software.ecmwf.int/wiki/display/FCST/Implementation+of+IFS+cycle+43r3

[ROCK]

Just a note to remind everyone that the ECMWF is being upgraded today. The 12Z run will be the first run of the upgraded model:

https://software.ecmwf.int/wiki/display/FCST/Implementation+of+IFS+cycle+43r3

its going to be better then it was before!! I am so excited!!

[NDG]

Just a note to remind everyone that the ECMWF is being upgraded today. The 12Z run will be the first run of the upgraded model:

https://software.ecmwf.int/wiki/display/FCST/Implementation+of+IFS+cycle+43r3

its going to be better then it was before!! I am so excited!!

Which will hopefully fix its aggressiveness with systems in its 7-10 day range.

[Weather150]

I would say don't expect anything to show up on the models until late July/early August. The next 10 days look pretty quiet.

[Sciencerocks]

I would say don't expect anything to show up on the models until late July/early August. The next 10 days look pretty quiet.

Very likely as July's are normally quit but we've already had a storm and a depression so it is a wait and see. .

[gatorcane]

Remember although the Euro goes out 10 days and GFS 16 days doesn't mean much if they are not showing anything in the long-range as something can start to show up in the models even in the medium range as we have seen in the past.

[Siker]

If nothing else the Euro continues to show anomalous westerlies across the MDR for the next 10 days, interested to see if this remains a theme as we head into August.

[ROCK]

Remember although the Euro goes out 10 days and GFS 16 days doesn't mean much if they are not showing anything in the long-range as something can start to show up in the models even in the medium range as we have seen in the past.

Ah words of wisdom!! And I agree. Watch the CNC for hints then move to the Euro runs. Glad someone has embraced the Euro model!!

[tolakram]

Remember although the Euro goes out 10 days and GFS 16 days doesn't mean much if they are not showing anything in the long-range as something can start to show up in the models even in the medium range as we have seen in the past.

Ah words of wisdom!! And I agree. Watch the CNC for hints then move to the Euro runs. Glad someone has embraced the Euro model!!

Stop trolling Rock.

The euro improvement is slight this time, and may not mean much for the tropics IMO. I think it's always up in the air how well a model does in the tropics vs upper air. The scores that Ryan Maue tracks are 500mb and overall the new version did slightly better.



 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/884218325206802432

[Weather150]

For your amusement lol.

[Hurricaneman]

For your amusement lol.

Might be trying to hint at better conditions coming the last 10 days of the month

[WeatherHoon]

For your amusement lol.

Might be trying to hint at better conditions coming the last 10 days of the month

The damage has been done. I don't think I'll ever be able to trust the gfs again, even after the upgrade.

[TheStormExpert]

For your amusement lol.

Might be trying to hint at better conditions coming the last 10 days of the month

According to the GFS several days ago we should've had pretty ideal conditions as of today.

The GFS-P should be a MUCH NEEDED fresh start for this global model, hopefully it can get all the environmental conditions right for once.

[MetroMike]

GFS has been trolling us this month, hope the upgrade will put some clout into the long range and give us something meaningful to study and converse over.