2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#641 Postby stormhunter7 » Mon Jul 10, 2017 12:19 pm




This truly will be a battle of the models starting late tomorrow!
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#642 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Mon Jul 10, 2017 12:31 pm

My BS flag is still raised until the EURO and/or UKMET join in with significant development.
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#643 Postby Emmett_Brown » Mon Jul 10, 2017 2:00 pm

If the GFS is upgraded tomorrow, I guess this means that our phantom storm is history in 24 hours?
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#644 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Mon Jul 10, 2017 2:01 pm

Emmett_Brown wrote:If the GFS is upgraded tomorrow, I guess this means that our phantom storm is history in 24 hours?

The EURO is upgrated tomorrow, the GFS on 19/July.
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#645 Postby HURRICANELONNY » Mon Jul 10, 2017 2:51 pm

Not much model support but it's a good read by Dr. Masters

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/ex-td ... ar-bahamas
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#646 Postby Siker » Mon Jul 10, 2017 3:30 pm

Are the GFS ensembles set to be upgraded at the same time? Is that something that happens automatically with each upgrade cycle, i.e. the ensembles are just a percentage resolution of whatever the Operational GFS is?
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#647 Postby wxman57 » Tue Jul 11, 2017 9:26 am

Just a note to remind everyone that the ECMWF is being upgraded today. The 12Z run will be the first run of the upgraded model:

https://software.ecmwf.int/wiki/display/FCST/Implementation+of+IFS+cycle+43r3
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#648 Postby ROCK » Tue Jul 11, 2017 10:22 am

wxman57 wrote:Just a note to remind everyone that the ECMWF is being upgraded today. The 12Z run will be the first run of the upgraded model:

https://software.ecmwf.int/wiki/display/FCST/Implementation+of+IFS+cycle+43r3


its going to be better then it was before!! I am so excited!!
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#649 Postby NDG » Tue Jul 11, 2017 12:20 pm

ROCK wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Just a note to remind everyone that the ECMWF is being upgraded today. The 12Z run will be the first run of the upgraded model:

https://software.ecmwf.int/wiki/display/FCST/Implementation+of+IFS+cycle+43r3


its going to be better then it was before!! I am so excited!!


Which will hopefully fix its aggressiveness with systems in its 7-10 day range.
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#650 Postby Weather150 » Tue Jul 11, 2017 3:23 pm

I would say don't expect anything to show up on the models until late July/early August. The next 10 days look pretty quiet.
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#651 Postby Sciencerocks » Tue Jul 11, 2017 3:47 pm

Weather150 wrote:I would say don't expect anything to show up on the models until late July/early August. The next 10 days look pretty quiet.


Very likely as July's are normally quit but we've already had a storm and a depression so it is a wait and see. . ;)
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#652 Postby gatorcane » Tue Jul 11, 2017 4:09 pm

Remember although the Euro goes out 10 days and GFS 16 days doesn't mean much if they are not showing anything in the long-range as something can start to show up in the models even in the medium range as we have seen in the past.
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#653 Postby Siker » Tue Jul 11, 2017 5:46 pm

If nothing else the Euro continues to show anomalous westerlies across the MDR for the next 10 days, interested to see if this remains a theme as we head into August.
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#654 Postby ROCK » Wed Jul 12, 2017 1:09 am

gatorcane wrote:Remember although the Euro goes out 10 days and GFS 16 days doesn't mean much if they are not showing anything in the long-range as something can start to show up in the models even in the medium range as we have seen in the past.


Ah words of wisdom!! And I agree. Watch the CNC for hints then move to the Euro runs. Glad someone has embraced the Euro model!! :lol:
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#655 Postby tolakram » Wed Jul 12, 2017 7:03 am

ROCK wrote:
gatorcane wrote:Remember although the Euro goes out 10 days and GFS 16 days doesn't mean much if they are not showing anything in the long-range as something can start to show up in the models even in the medium range as we have seen in the past.


Ah words of wisdom!! And I agree. Watch the CNC for hints then move to the Euro runs. Glad someone has embraced the Euro model!! :lol:


Stop trolling Rock. :)

The euro improvement is slight this time, and may not mean much for the tropics IMO. I think it's always up in the air how well a model does in the tropics vs upper air. The scores that Ryan Maue tracks are 500mb and overall the new version did slightly better.

Image

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/884218325206802432


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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#656 Postby Weather150 » Wed Jul 12, 2017 5:35 pm

Image
For your amusement lol.
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#657 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Jul 12, 2017 5:55 pm

Weather150 wrote:Image
For your amusement lol.

Might be trying to hint at better conditions coming the last 10 days of the month
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#658 Postby WeatherHoon » Wed Jul 12, 2017 6:05 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:
Weather150 wrote:Image
For your amusement lol.

Might be trying to hint at better conditions coming the last 10 days of the month


The damage has been done. I don't think I'll ever be able to trust the gfs again, even after the upgrade. :x
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#659 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Jul 12, 2017 6:15 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:
Weather150 wrote:Image
For your amusement lol.

Might be trying to hint at better conditions coming the last 10 days of the month

According to the GFS several days ago we should've had pretty ideal conditions as of today. :lol:

The GFS-P should be a MUCH NEEDED fresh start for this global model, hopefully it can get all the environmental conditions right for once.
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Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#660 Postby MetroMike » Wed Jul 12, 2017 6:15 pm

GFS has been trolling us this month, hope the upgrade will put some clout into the long range and give us something meaningful to study and converse over.
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