2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/885511520066686976




Michael Lowry
African dust over the tropical Atlantic this summer has been the *lowest* observed since 2005. The dust typically peaks by early-mid July.
10:49 AM - 13 Jul 2017

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/bennollweather/status/885458145081909249

[TheStormExpert]

When does the July update of the Euro MSLP graphic for ASO come out?

[cycloneye]

When does the July update of the Euro MSLP graphic for ASO come out?

15th.

[RL3AO]

Something to keep in mind when it comes to the longer range velocity potential forecasts entering August. (Looking at Eric Blake's tweet)

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/885530261538189312

[Alyono]

When does the July update of the Euro MSLP graphic for ASO come out?

15th.

there was little change with the July update

[GeneratorPower]

This season smells like 2004.

[Emmett_Brown]

I kind of like that there are no good historical analogs for this season. Perhaps some new predictors will be discovered that often go unnoticed due to the usual fixation on ENSO.

[AutoPenalti]

We are about to hit mid-July, when is peak exactly?

Mid-August?

[WeatherHoon]

We are about to hit mid-July, when is peak exactly?

Mid-August?

September 10th

[RL3AO]

We are about to hit mid-July, when is peak exactly?

Mid-August?

[Hammy]

Atlantic convection is doing pretty well considering we're in the suppressive phase of the MJO.

[Hurricaneman]

Atlantic convection is doing pretty well considering we're in the suppressive phase of the MJO.

That's a sign for later in the month into early August that around that time the lid may come off and here come the storms

[Weather150]

Consensus also looks like the lowering of pressures won't be until after the 25th of July, as GFS, Euro, and CMC all not showing it happening until a few days after that date. I am not buying this MDR storm and Atlantic will continue to be in sleep mode for the next 10 days to even perhaps finishing the month.

[gatorcane]

We are about to hit mid-July, when is peak exactly?

Mid-August?

http://i.imgur.com/kzA3sIs.png

You can see from this chart we are in the climatologically slowest time for the hurricane season when looking at the first half leading up the peak Sept 10th. It is even slower than June. So everybody enjoy it because indicators to me indicate it will be quite busy once things ramp up in August.

[JPmia]

So since we're in a slow period.. do we have any data points, graphs, charts, maps, that hint at the upcoming track patterns we should see this season? I've seen some comments and maps at Tropical Tidbits that point to 2004 as an analog? I am always looking for clues to get past what seems to be randomness each year.

[AtlanticWind]

So since we're in a slow period.. do we have any data points, graphs, charts, maps, that hint at the upcoming track patterns we should see this season? I've seen some comments and maps at Tropical Tidbits that point to 2004 as an analog? I am always looking for clues to get past what seems to be randomness each year.

We all try to get pass the randomness but unfortunately there will probably always be a good
Amount , so many small differences effect the amount of storms and their paths.
Even in one given year you may have most all the storms recurve in the Atlantic then one
sneaks by and affects land.

[weathaguyry]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/hsanalog/

[cycloneye]

ECMWF July update of MSLP for ASO.

[TheStormExpert]

Starting to think there's something wrong with the Euro MSLP graphic. Remember last month it was showing higher pressures worldwide.