#619 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Sat Jul 15, 2017 10:24 am
Interesting write up this am in HGX
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017/
DISCUSSION...
Yes it`s summer time. 3AM temperatures - Galveston 83, Houston
HOU 82, Houston IAH 81 and College Station 79. Heat index at
Galveston is 93. Here at the office it is 78 and the petroleum
polluted moisture pretty much suffocates you since there is no
wind. In fact winds at 3AM were 5 knots or less everywhere across
SE Texas.
Upper level analysis shows main summer time ridge over the
Rockies and Great Basin with the Bermuda ridge edging into the SE
U.S. A short wave trough over the Great Lakes has helped a
weakness in the ridging to develop over the Ohio/Miss River
valleys. Water vapor imagery shows a vorticity max over Mid South
to lower Miss River valley which should be pushing SW towards the
area. There is also a weak TUTT low NW of Yucatan with plenty of
moisture over the Gulf. There is a big area of precipitable water
values exceeding 2 inches over the northern Gulf coast into Texas
that also covers quite a bit of the Gulf of Mexico.
Today through Monday expect precipitable water values to increase
to around 2 to 2.2 inches across the area. This airmass will
become unstable once convective temperatures are achieved which
may only be in the mid/upper 80s. The expectation will be
diurnally driven convective clusters throughout the day that will
cause plenty of outflow boundary collisions for the development of
new convective clusters until day time heating and instability
are lost. However since the airmass will have PW near 2.2 inches,
it will not take much for the airmass to recover and become
unstable again. Convection could persist overnight despite more
"stable" conditions in the boundary layer due to night time
inversion. Since convection will be mesoscale driven, it is
difficult to pinpoint exact locations of rainfall and with the
high moisture content, where locally heavy rainfall will occur.
Rainfall amounts each day could be zero or 1 to 3 inches in 1 to 2
hour time frame. Rainfall rates could easily reach 1 to 2 inches
an hour. For example, yesterday it rained 1.84 inches in less than
2 hours at my house, but my forecasting partner got no rain just
5 miles away. So you can think of getting heavy rainfall like
playing Powerball. If you hit all 6 numbers on the 6 balls, you
could get a lot of rain, or if you only get 1, then you get
nothing. However Sunday and Monday your chances of rain go up so
it would be like playing Powerball with say 3 or 4 balls instead
of 6, and those balls may have fewer numbers on them. Should you
hit the jackpot, not only can you expect very heavy rainfall that
could cause localized street flooding, but you could also get lots
of lightning and gusty winds to go with it.
So far, we have been very consistent with the afternoon rain showers keeping it moist and cool under the clouds and rain. Humidity is insane though. Not complaining at all!
Low was 81 at TPB weather station last night, im confident that is a record low Maximum for my station.
Edit: Quick research on Weather underground. Ive hit 80 as a low twice so far this year. Both other times, the next day I had over an inch of rain. Expecting the same today.
Last edited by
TeamPlayersBlue on Sat Jul 15, 2017 7:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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. He wasn't here for the footer
so my track record isn't great 
