Texas Summer 2017

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Re: Texas Summer 2017

#601 Postby TheProfessor » Thu Jul 13, 2017 9:48 pm

Ntxw wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:No big N. Texas heat wave this summer? New Euro weeklies run to the end of August and nothing really screams scorch. Get us into the 2nd week of September and then it is all down hill from there, low 80s by Dec based on the last two winters! wait...

Anyway, looking at the QBO and MEI and it is crazy how similar this year is to '09. Who would take an '09/10 winter after the last couple of years?


Brent will never forgive you for throwing around 2009/2010 and if it doesn't pan out :lol:. He wasn't here for the footer

But yeah being that we are halfway through July it doesn't seem like we'll see a summer with persistent 100s. Of course we were saying this last summer before the 100s hit after mid July...in September..


It's still so weird that not only was the footer the most snow I've seen in a storm, but 2009-10 was still the most snow I've seen in a year. Just goes to show you how bad the winters have been west of the Appalachians and south of the Northern plains the past couple of years(it really hurts that I missed out on 2 straight epic winters as well). It also shows how rare and epic that winter was for North Texas.
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Re: Texas Summer 2017

#602 Postby bubba hotep » Thu Jul 13, 2017 9:56 pm

TheProfessor wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:No big N. Texas heat wave this summer? New Euro weeklies run to the end of August and nothing really screams scorch. Get us into the 2nd week of September and then it is all down hill from there, low 80s by Dec based on the last two winters! wait...

Anyway, looking at the QBO and MEI and it is crazy how similar this year is to '09. Who would take an '09/10 winter after the last couple of years?


Brent will never forgive you for throwing around 2009/2010 and if it doesn't pan out :lol:. He wasn't here for the footer

But yeah being that we are halfway through July it doesn't seem like we'll see a summer with persistent 100s. Of course we were saying this last summer before the 100s hit after mid July...in September..


It's still so weird that not only was the footer the most snow I've seen in a storm, but 2009-10 was still the most snow I've seen in a year. Just goes to show you how bad the winters have been west of the Appalachians and south of the Northern plains the past couple of years(it really hurts that I missed out on 2 straight epic winters as well). It also shows how rare and epic that winter was for North Texas.


That was my last winter in DC and nothing will probably ever compare to that. This was the view outside of our row house!

Image
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Re: Texas Summer 2017

#603 Postby Ptarmigan » Thu Jul 13, 2017 10:45 pm

bubba hotep wrote:No big N. Texas heat wave this summer? New Euro weeklies run to the end of August and nothing really screams scorch. Get us into the 2nd week of September and then it is all down hill from there, low 80s by Dec based on the last two winters! wait...

Anyway, looking at the QBO and MEI and it is crazy how similar this year is to '09. Who would take an '09/10 winter after the last couple of years?


QBO Data
https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/qbo.data

Some big cold blasts occurred with negative QBO, which are easterlies.

Of course not all negative QBOs are going to have cold blasts.

The negative QBOs and cold blasts and winters occurred in January/February 1951, Winter 1972-1973, Winter 1976-1977, December 1983, February 1989, December 1989, and Winter 2009-2010.

There have been cold blasts and winters with positive QBOs like in January 1962, Winter 1963-1964, Winter 1977-1978, and Winter 1978-1979.
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Re: Texas Summer 2017

#604 Postby Brent » Fri Jul 14, 2017 12:26 am

Ntxw wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:No big N. Texas heat wave this summer? New Euro weeklies run to the end of August and nothing really screams scorch. Get us into the 2nd week of September and then it is all down hill from there, low 80s by Dec based on the last two winters! wait...

Anyway, looking at the QBO and MEI and it is crazy how similar this year is to '09. Who would take an '09/10 winter after the last couple of years?


Brent will never forgive you for throwing around 2009/2010 and if it doesn't pan out :lol:. He wasn't here for the footer



don't even lol... but honestly I'm over analogs... been burned so much by them the last couple of years, I'm more believe it when I see it now.

I'm really hoping I can get up north for a snowstorm this winter(I've just lost confidence in a big event here even though I know it can happen), but it never seems to line up with work so I guess we'll see... I picked a week in January this year and it completely sucked everywhere lol then go to NYC In June and get what has so far been the hottest temps of the summer... :roll: so my track record isn't great :lol:
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Re: Texas Summer 2017

#605 Postby TheProfessor » Fri Jul 14, 2017 2:31 am

Brent wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:No big N. Texas heat wave this summer? New Euro weeklies run to the end of August and nothing really screams scorch. Get us into the 2nd week of September and then it is all down hill from there, low 80s by Dec based on the last two winters! wait...

Anyway, looking at the QBO and MEI and it is crazy how similar this year is to '09. Who would take an '09/10 winter after the last couple of years?


Brent will never forgive you for throwing around 2009/2010 and if it doesn't pan out :lol:. He wasn't here for the footer



don't even lol... but honestly I'm over analogs... been burned so much by them the last couple of years, I'm more believe it when I see it now.

I'm really hoping I can get up north for a snowstorm this winter(I've just lost confidence in a big event here even though I know it can happen), but it never seems to line up with work so I guess we'll see... I picked a week in January this year and it completely sucked everywhere lol then go to NYC In June and get what has so far been the hottest temps of the summer... :roll: so my track record isn't great :lol:


I wouldn't pick Ohio, especially central Ohio, from what I'm told they always miss the big events from every direction minus the 2008 storm lol. If you want to see good snow I'd head to Western NY earlier in the winter when the lake effect machine is going. And yeah, you have to be careful with analogs, they can definitely be helpful, but in the case of short-term/mid-term forecasting, Numerical models and climatology are usually favored above it and in some cases(like Summer time) Recent weather data can be favored as well. Yes, 2009-10 can happen, but it doesn't fit DFWs climatology.
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Re: Texas Summer 2017

#606 Postby weatherdude1108 » Fri Jul 14, 2017 8:12 am

South Texas Storms wrote:
Portastorm wrote:
South Texas Storms wrote::uarrow: Unfortunately it poofed after getting north of downtown...

However, better rain chances are expected across the south central Texas this weekend into early next week as a tropical wave move into the area. Some models indicate we could see some rainfall totals of 1-2 inches. Really hope it happens. Our part of the state really needs it.


Hope you're right, buddy.

102 here today in ATX. We're on the 13th day of this month and for Austin, we've had triple digits on nine of those 13 days. Ugh.


I'm trying hard to push it west Porta! I think I've had rain here in Houston every day for the past week it seems. Thundering again right now. Go west storms!


Well, this is encouraging for the next several days!
Image
An increase in rain chances will take place Saturday afternoon into Sunday and continuing through Monday with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Localized heavy rain is possible mainly Sunday afternoon and evening period along and east of Highway 281. There are several upper level disturbances passing across and/or interacting with each other, resulting in a wet pattern for the upcoming weekend into early next week.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
415 AM CDT Fri Jul 14 2017

.SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday)...
An upper level inverted trough/shear axis located over northern
Mexico/west Texas early this morning is enhancing thunderstorm
activity across western Val Verde county. A low level jet of
30 knots based on KDFX wind profile data is helping to push increased
moisture from the Gulf along the Rio Grande Plains with pwats ranging
from 1.9 to 2.0 inches based on 00Z DRT raob sounding data and latest
analyzed values from the SPC mesoanalysis site. Heavy rain is
falling across the western part of Val Verde county as of this
writing with rain rate of 2 to 3 inches per hour. A Flash Flood
Warning is in effect for the west part of Val Verde county until 6
am.

This activity is expected to continue for the next few hours before
these storms with heavy rains move to the northwest and away from
west of Val Verde county.

Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expect across much of South Central
Texas this morning with scattered clouds dominating the afternoon with
the exception of the Rio Grande Plains, where mostly cloudy skies
will remain.

The upper level inverted trough is forecast to push to the northwest
and west throughout the period. This will bring an end to rain
chances across the Rio Grande later this morning and allow for sea
breeze convection along the coastal Plains to move farther inland to
affect parts of the eastern counties during the afternoon and early
evening.

By Saturday, another upper level inverted trough is forecast to
approach the area from the east while an upper level shear
axis (between the sub-tropical upper level ridge over the central
Rockies and upper level high pressure system located over Florida)
pushes down into our area. This will bring chances for rain across
most of the area on Saturday.


.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
The wet pattern continues Saturday evening with a lull overnight and
then picks up once again Sunday into Monday. Localized heavy rain is
possible mainly Sunday afternoon and evening as precipitable water
values increase 2.0 to 2.2 inches for areas along and east of Highway
281.
By Monday, the upper level inverted trough is forecast to move
into the Rio Grande Plains area, where the focus for heavy rains is
expected to transition. Lingering moisutre and unstable conditions
will give way to another round of showers and thunderstorms on
Tuesday
with limited rain chance for Wednesday and Thursday as the
sub-tropical upper level ridge re-builds across the central Plains.

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Re: Texas Summer 2017

#607 Postby weatherdude1108 » Fri Jul 14, 2017 8:18 am

South Texas Storms wrote::uarrow: Unfortunately it poofed after getting north of downtown...

However, better rain chances are expected across the south central Texas this weekend into early next week as a tropical wave move into the area. Some models indicate we could see some rainfall totals of 1-2 inches. Really hope it happens. Our part of the state really needs it.

:uarrow:
Yeah, my brother in north San Antonio said that a huge gust front moved through his area yesterday just north of those storms, which made him think it wasn't going to rain. He was right. Can't count how many times I have seen that happen where the gust front blows through, and whatever formed dissipates.
:roll:
But yes, the short-term forecast for more rainstorm chances is more encouraging! My backyard is full of soil cracks in the beds, despite my soaking it once a week. It's green, but has substantial cracks in parts of the soil.
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Re: Texas Summer 2017

#608 Postby Shoshana » Fri Jul 14, 2017 10:30 am

Portastorm wrote:
South Texas Storms wrote::uarrow: Unfortunately it poofed after getting north of downtown...

However, better rain chances are expected across the south central Texas this weekend into early next week as a tropical wave move into the area. Some models indicate we could see some rainfall totals of 1-2 inches. Really hope it happens. Our part of the state really needs it.


Hope you're right, buddy.

102 here today in ATX. We're on the 13th day of this month and for Austin, we've had triple digits on nine of those 13 days. Ugh.


I'm hoping for rain too. Our grass has finally stopped needing mowing every 10 minutes but it's drying out and the mulberry tree in the neighbor's yard is dropping leaves.

We finally turned on the a/c on July 5. I'm not sure it's cycled off since.

The only good thing is that I got a new job where we have covered parking so my car is not roasting in the sun all day..... at least for 5 days a week
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Re: Texas Summer 2017

#609 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Fri Jul 14, 2017 2:37 pm

A few small pop up storms firing up just South of my location. As far as I know we don't have any type of chance at any rain or storms today. Nice to see, but I doubt they will materialize into anything.
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Re: Texas Summer 2017

#610 Postby Ntxw » Fri Jul 14, 2017 2:49 pm

Yukon Cornelius wrote:A few small pop up storms firing up just South of my location. As far as I know we don't have any type of chance at any rain or storms today. Nice to see, but I doubt they will materialize into anything.


Popcorn type showers. They are small coverage and don't last too long. A few lucky souls.
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Re: Texas Summer 2017

#611 Postby bubba hotep » Fri Jul 14, 2017 3:23 pm

Flooding here in downtown!
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Re: Texas Summer 2017

#612 Postby Cpv17 » Fri Jul 14, 2017 4:44 pm

What's the CPC seeing in their 3-4 week precipitation forecast? It's looking good!
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Re: Texas Summer 2017

#613 Postby bubba hotep » Fri Jul 14, 2017 5:11 pm

Cpv17 wrote:What's the CPC seeing in their 3-4 week precipitation forecast? It's looking good!


The NMME keeps portions of Texas above normal through February. In fact, all of Texas is normal or higher during the entire period.
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Re: Texas Summer 2017

#614 Postby South Texas Storms » Fri Jul 14, 2017 5:22 pm

I still like our chances for getting some beneficial rainfall in south and central Texas this weekend through early next week as moisture associated with the remnants of TD 4 moves westward across Texas. Euro is quite wet...the 12z run showed widespread totals of 1-2 inches in SA and Austin over the next 7 days. Really hope it verifies!
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Re: Texas Summer 2017

#615 Postby Ntxw » Fri Jul 14, 2017 8:06 pm

DFW hit 100 today for the second time this year
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Re: Texas Summer 2017

#616 Postby Cpv17 » Fri Jul 14, 2017 9:01 pm

I've heard we could get widespread 2-4 inches of rain here with isolated 6+ in SE TX Saturday through Tuesday. Bring it on!! :cheesy:
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Re: Texas Summer 2017

#617 Postby Ntxw » Sat Jul 15, 2017 9:07 am

Some rain for DFW this morning. Fitting after the 100 reading yesterday

Image
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Re: Texas Summer 2017

#618 Postby South Texas Storms » Sat Jul 15, 2017 9:14 am

:uarrow: That complex is forecast to strengthen with daytime heating this afternoon as it pushes south into central Texas. Hopefully Austin and SA get some much needed rain today.
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Re: Texas Summer 2017

#619 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Sat Jul 15, 2017 10:24 am

Interesting write up this am in HGX

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CDT Sat Jul 15 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Yes it`s summer time. 3AM temperatures - Galveston 83, Houston
HOU 82, Houston IAH 81 and College Station 79. Heat index at
Galveston is 93. Here at the office it is 78 and the petroleum
polluted moisture pretty much suffocates you since there is no
wind. In fact winds at 3AM were 5 knots or less everywhere across
SE Texas.

Upper level analysis shows main summer time ridge over the
Rockies and Great Basin with the Bermuda ridge edging into the SE
U.S. A short wave trough over the Great Lakes has helped a
weakness in the ridging to develop over the Ohio/Miss River
valleys. Water vapor imagery shows a vorticity max over Mid South
to lower Miss River valley which should be pushing SW towards the
area. There is also a weak TUTT low NW of Yucatan with plenty of
moisture over the Gulf. There is a big area of precipitable water
values exceeding 2 inches over the northern Gulf coast into Texas
that also covers quite a bit of the Gulf of Mexico.

Today through Monday expect precipitable water values to increase
to around 2 to 2.2 inches across the area. This airmass will
become unstable once convective temperatures are achieved which
may only be in the mid/upper 80s. The expectation will be
diurnally driven convective clusters throughout the day that will
cause plenty of outflow boundary collisions for the development of
new convective clusters until day time heating and instability
are lost. However since the airmass will have PW near 2.2 inches,
it will not take much for the airmass to recover and become
unstable again. Convection could persist overnight despite more
"stable" conditions in the boundary layer due to night time
inversion. Since convection will be mesoscale driven, it is
difficult to pinpoint exact locations of rainfall and with the
high moisture content, where locally heavy rainfall will occur.
Rainfall amounts each day could be zero or 1 to 3 inches in 1 to 2
hour time frame. Rainfall rates could easily reach 1 to 2 inches
an hour. For example, yesterday it rained 1.84 inches in less than
2 hours at my house, but my forecasting partner got no rain just
5 miles away. So you can think of getting heavy rainfall like
playing Powerball. If you hit all 6 numbers on the 6 balls, you
could get a lot of rain, or if you only get 1, then you get
nothing. However Sunday and Monday your chances of rain go up so
it would be like playing Powerball with say 3 or 4 balls instead
of 6, and those balls may have fewer numbers on them. Should you
hit the jackpot, not only can you expect very heavy rainfall that
could cause localized street flooding, but you could also get lots
of lightning and gusty winds to go with it.

So far, we have been very consistent with the afternoon rain showers keeping it moist and cool under the clouds and rain. Humidity is insane though. Not complaining at all!

Low was 81 at TPB weather station last night, im confident that is a record low Maximum for my station.


Edit: Quick research on Weather underground. Ive hit 80 as a low twice so far this year. Both other times, the next day I had over an inch of rain. Expecting the same today.
Last edited by TeamPlayersBlue on Sat Jul 15, 2017 7:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Summer 2017

#620 Postby JDawg512 » Sat Jul 15, 2017 11:27 am

South Texas Storms wrote:Hopefully Austin and SA get some much needed rain today.


That way I can use my temporary summer 2017 catchphrase that's on my avatar pic!

I decided to awaken from my summertime hibernation sensing that we might get lucky. Will probably lock myself back in darkness by Wednesday for the foreseeable future.
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