2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

[Hammy]

LMAO at me fighting with someone whose post must have gotten deleted. They must have called me a Joe B. bootlicker or something. Not a chance. What he says goes in the mix, but it sure wasn't Gospel to me then or now. We all know how 2004 turned out. Many of our friends here and on CFHC were without power for weeks after Frances and Jeanne. Then came Ivan to destroy the Eastern Shore of AL and Pensacola Beach and Pensacola. It turned into a very wild year for the USA. Then came 2005 which I'm just going to ignore for now.

The indicators and dynamics this year would seem to put Florida back in the crosshairs in a few weeks. Bahamas and North may be the main target, but I'd be almost shocked if Florida doesn't take a blow from something.

While I hadn't found this site yet I remember that from CFHC (I was there as Rabbit if I remember correctly) and I think I was one of the ones doubting we'd have much of a hurricane season--just a month or so later I get the outer eyewall of Charley in Brevard.

Track-wise, any season you think this year will be similar to?

[tarheelprogrammer]

How much time needs to pass before a pattern becomes the normal, the EC troughing has been a near permanent feature for 10+ years... When it comes to the EC landfall drought, I'm puzzled why this troughing isn't discussed more?

Do you have (or have you seen) any evidence to suggest that troughing on the East Coast has become more persistent or intense during the last decade? Until I see something, I'd wager everything is within the climatological norms and that things are pretty much the same as they've been in past decades.

ATLANTIC BASIN HURRICANE TRACKS FROM 2006-2016
Meteorology is not my profession, so the wording of my questions can/does lack technical expertise at times. I don't have hard sound science to back my observation and even the experts continue to be puzzled why there has been such a hurricane landfall drought. I guess I'm wrong in thinking the EC trough has played a significant role since 2006.

I posted a similar map last season around this same time, and oddly it is still valid. It is weird that no METs have a sound reasoning or consensus as to why the last 11 closing in on 12 years has seen this drought. The longest on record before this time was 5 years I believe. We are getting close to that figure being triple that now. Any METs on here have theories? I have read into conspiracy theories, but is there any sound reason for a streak to last this long? That is a large coastline, and it would seem a least a couple would slip through the cracks to hit the US by now.

[Steve]

Oh ****. Hahaha. I didn't know you were Rabbit. You were a good poster back then too.

I'm not really sure of analog track years overall, but I think just the strength and scope of the main Atlantic High would have systems heading W across the basin, and then anything that gets by the Greater Antilles is a legitimate threat from the ESE or SE. So how does the high evolve. Do we have a delayed winter again this year where maybe only a couple of late summer/early fall fronts come through? At what points does Atlantic activity peak, and how many multiple storm bursts do we get? Do we have a year with multiple predominant tracks? Do we have multiple Gulf and Atlantic systems?I just don't know. If I had to guess, I'd say 1998 looks reasonable and is a western biased season. Maybe 2002, 2004 and some of 2005 blended with probably less recurves per capita (named storms) than 2005 had but obviously fewer storms.

Then there's the anomalously warm water that is off the mid-Atlantic, New England and Canadian coasts (roughly Virginia to Newfoundland). That's like a magnet, so does that draw some stuff up or re-intensify systems exiting the coast or maybe even allow for a shortcut storm similar to Hugo but farther north?

I guess things "feel" 2004 to me. I know there aren't that many parallels with that year, though there are some. But The Bahamas/Florida/Cuba/Jamaica/Cayman Islands give or take a couple hundred miles (so say 77W-85W) would be my gun-to-the-head guess as to where the biggest concentration and threat for multiple systems would be. If the high re-centers farther East in the coming weeks, maybe the US and Canadian East Coasts and Bahamas would be where I'd expect the largest concentration of tracks that matter.

[tolakram]

I posted a similar map last season around this same time, and oddly it is still valid. It is weird that no METs have a sound reasoning or consensus as to why the last 11 closing in on 12 years has seen this drought. The longest on record before this time was 5 years I believe. We are getting close to that figure being triple that now. Any METs on here have theories? I have read into conspiracy theories, but is there any sound reason for a streak to last this long? That is a large coastline, and it would seem a least a couple would slip through the cracks to hit the US by now.

It's a statistical blip, it happens, just like flipping a coin and getting heads 20 times in a row. 2004 and 2005 combined had 7 major hurricane hits so if you're a "law of averages" person this is nothing unusual. Both nonsense, of course, but if you're going to even mention conspiracy theories ... magnets.

As far as that older thread ... Steve. haha. We've been through 2005 now and I think expectations have been set even higher than before.

[Hammy]

regarding the 2006-16 map.

Compare that to a few decades of tracks prior to 2004, it'll look largely the same in the Atlantic. The MDR being in a sort of drought (dry stable air) for so long, as well as shear in the Caribbean, and dry air spilling out into the Gulf, are largely responsible for the hurricane drought. Storms have either been forming too far east to reach the US, too far north to reach the US (north of 20/east of 60), staying weak until they reach the western Caribbean--at which point the drought-producing high over Texas pushes them into Mexico, or they've succumbed to dry air or shear in the Caribbean/western tropical Atlantic. And part of it is coincidence-- For instance, Fay and Hanna could've impacted the US as hurricanes in 2008 (and were just below when they came ashore) but Fay nudged inland before it could increase further, and Hanna was stopped ironically by Gustav, as the backside of the outflow was spewing shear which caused the circulation to become disorganized, too much to strengthen quickly once it let up; Ernesto 2006, similar deal--would've been a hurricane landfall had it not been disrupted by going lengthwise over eastern Cuba; in 2000 the TUTT got in the way, shearing everything as it approached 60W.

[tarheelprogrammer]

I posted a similar map last season around this same time, and oddly it is still valid. It is weird that no METs have a sound reasoning or consensus as to why the last 11 closing in on 12 years has seen this drought. The longest on record before this time was 5 years I believe. We are getting close to that figure being triple that now. Any METs on here have theories? I have read into conspiracy theories, but is there any sound reason for a streak to last this long? That is a large coastline, and it would seem a least a couple would slip through the cracks to hit the US by now.

It's a statistical blip, it happens, just like flipping a coin and getting heads 20 times in a row. 2004 and 2005 combined had 7 major hurricane hits so if you're a "law of averages" person this is nothing unusual. Both nonsense, of course, but if you're going to even mention conspiracy theories ... magnets.

As far as that older thread ... Steve. haha. We've been through 2005 now and I think expectations have been set even higher than before.

I am taking statistics classes now for my degree lol, so I enjoy this sort of stuff to be honest. Can you or someone else post a map of hurricanes hitting/missing by decade? I highly doubt we had hurricanes miss the US in the past like we have seen the last decade + now. Obviously, everyone with common sense should know 2004/2005 were exceptions to the rule, but I remember growing up in NC watching majors strike the US in the 80s and 90s consistently. I am not sure before that though. Of course most hurricanes including majors do not hit land, but to say this latest streak is not odd sounds off IMHO.

[RL3AO]

On a side note, I would like to point out that about a week ago, many of us said the Atlantic would be a graveyard for a couple weeks before an active 2nd/3rd week of August. Obviously, the 2nd part hasn't verified (yet), but I think it's worth noting that there is some skill in predicting the conditions at weeks 2, 3, and 4. It's not perfect, but it's something.

[wxman57]

On a side note, I would like to point out that about a week ago, many of us said the Atlantic would be a graveyard for a couple weeks before an active 2nd/3rd week of August. Obviously, the 2nd part hasn't verified (yet), but I think it's worth noting that there is some skill in predicting the conditions at weeks 2, 3, and 4. It's not perfect, but it's something.

Typically, when the East Pac is very active (like now), the Atlantic is dead. GFS has the East Pac still active at day 16 with 3-4 named storms then.

[Steve]

I posted a similar map last season around this same time, and oddly it is still valid. It is weird that no METs have a sound reasoning or consensus as to why the last 11 closing in on 12 years has seen this drought. The longest on record before this time was 5 years I believe. We are getting close to that figure being triple that now. Any METs on here have theories? I have read into conspiracy theories, but is there any sound reason for a streak to last this long? That is a large coastline, and it would seem a least a couple would slip through the cracks to hit the US by now.

It's a statistical blip, it happens, just like flipping a coin and getting heads 20 times in a row. 2004 and 2005 combined had 7 major hurricane hits so if you're a "law of averages" person this is nothing unusual. Both nonsense, of course, but if you're going to even mention conspiracy theories ... magnets.

As far as that older thread ... Steve. haha. We've been through 2005 now and I think expectations have been set even higher than before.

Yeah. That year was insane for obvious reasons. We had Cindy come through. Then there was Dennis which hit around Santa Rosa County/Navarre area. I was out in Lake Pontchartrain on a sailboat (moored), and it was tropical storm conditions on the lake side of the levee all day long (inside the levees, it was barely 15mph winds. Then there was Katrina which I had to leave town for at the last minute. Then there was Rita which hit Lake Charles and Cameron (and East Texas) while I was in Dauphin Island, Alabama. They closed the bridge the morning it passed by because of rocks and waves. So I just stayed home from work for a couple of days. 2002 was another year with a bunch of action for me. I think I remembered rain from 6 or 7 named storms that year though only Isidore and Lili had any real impact. Speaking of Joe B in the 2004 thread, he had a video up this morning with an Eric Blake tweet which drew a triangle off the Mexican Riviera showing water temperature parallels between 1991 and 1992 and 2016-2017 off the Mexican Coast. Water temperature profiles in those years (presumably blended) and 2016 and 2017 have resulted in the fastest stating EPAC July ACE.

[NDG]

I have not recalled seeing a 600dm+ mid level ridge before as forecasted by the GFS

[PTrackerLA]

LMAO at me fighting with someone whose post must have gotten deleted. They must have called me a Joe B. bootlicker or something. Not a chance. What he says goes in the mix, but it sure wasn't Gospel to me then or now. We all know how 2004 turned out. Many of our friends here and on CFHC were without power for weeks after Frances and Jeanne. Then came Ivan to destroy the Eastern Shore of AL and Pensacola Beach and Pensacola. It turned into a very wild year for the USA. Then came 2005 which I'm just going to ignore for now.

The indicators and dynamics this year would seem to put Florida back in the crosshairs in a few weeks. Bahamas and North may be the main target, but I'd be almost shocked if Florida doesn't take a blow from something.

And I posted 13 years ago to this day that people are warranted in complaining about the lack of activity because the previous years had storms in the early season. LITTLE did I know at the time what 2004-2005 would really bring. Thanks for a quick trip down memory lane, we have a great community here!

I'm siding with Michael Ventrice's and others on Twitter that the lid will be coming off by 8/8. Fascinating times ahead for weather enthusiasts!

[Dylan]

I posted a similar map last season around this same time, and oddly it is still valid. It is weird that no METs have a sound reasoning or consensus as to why the last 11 closing in on 12 years has seen this drought. The longest on record before this time was 5 years I believe. We are getting close to that figure being triple that now. Any METs on here have theories? I have read into conspiracy theories, but is there any sound reason for a streak to last this long? That is a large coastline, and it would seem a least a couple would slip through the cracks to hit the US by now.

It's a statistical blip, it happens, just like flipping a coin and getting heads 20 times in a row. 2004 and 2005 combined had 7 major hurricane hits so if you're a "law of averages" person this is nothing unusual. Both nonsense, of course, but if you're going to even mention conspiracy theories ... magnets.

As far as that older thread ... Steve. haha. We've been through 2005 now and I think expectations have been set even higher than before.

Yeah. That year was insane for obvious reasons. We had Cindy come through. Then there was Dennis which hit around Santa Rosa County/Navarre area. I was out in Lake Pontchartrain on a sailboat (moored), and it was tropical storm conditions on the lake side of the levee all day long (inside the levees, it was barely 15mph winds. Then there was Katrina which I had to leave town for at the last minute. Then there was Rita which hit Lake Charles and Cameron (and East Texas) while I was in Dauphin Island, Alabama. They closed the bridge the morning it passed by because of rocks and waves. So I just stayed home from work for a couple of days. 2002 was another year with a bunch of action for me. I think I remembered rain from 6 or 7 named storms that year though only Isidore and Lili had any real impact. Speaking of Joe B in the 2004 thread, he had a video up this morning with an Eric Blake tweet which drew a triangle off the Mexican Riviera showing water temperature parallels between 1991 and 1992 and 2016-2017 off the Mexican Coast. Water temperature profiles in those years (presumably blended) and 2016 and 2017 have resulted in the fastest stating EPAC July ACE.

Cindy caught everyone by surprise in New Orleans. I remember being in Lafayette for the 4th and first hearing about Cindy, but it was forecasted to go west. The next day the forecast shifted east towards NOLA, and it rained my whole ride back to town. The wind really picked up that night, and the gusts to 60-70mph were wicked. Neighbors didn't have power for a couple of days. There is just something different about a tropical system when it makes landfall strengthening VS weakening.

[Dylan]

I have not recalled seeing a 600dm+ mid level ridge before as forecasted by the GFS

I feel like the Atlantic Ridge is much stronger this year vs recent seasons. We really need to watch out when a vigorous Cape Verde system develops next month into September.

[Steve]

I have not recalled seeing a 600dm+ mid level ridge before as forecasted by the GFS

I feel like the Atlantic Ridge is much stronger this year vs recent seasons. We really need to watch out when a vigorous Cape Verde system develops next month into September.

Yeah. if things work out wrong, it could be a bad season. I think the ridge is the #1 concern this year. It's not everything, but there will be storms. So if the pattern locks in, we all might have some threats this year.

[beoumont]

I have not recalled seeing a 600dm+ mid level ridge before as forecasted by the GFS

I seem to recall seeing a day or two every few years when the Atlantic ridge peaks out at 600; usually in late July or early August.

One specific time I recall was in 1990 when Hurricane Lili headed w-wsw for a day at 30 mph, being pushed by a 600 ridge north of the storm on Oct. 11th-12th. Note the center position moved west 11 degrees of longitude in one day.

[NDG]

 https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/890528929924214784

[WeatherEmperor]

 https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/890528929924214784

I dont know how to read these kelvin wave maps...but to me it looks like the majority of the dark blue favorable conditions are over the EPAC. So how can that help the ATL??


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[Ntxw]

https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/890528929924214784

I dont know how to read these kelvin wave maps...but to me it looks like the majority of the dark blue favorable conditions are over the EPAC. So how can that help the ATL??


Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk

Overall they mean there is lots of rising air over the whem vs sinking air preventing convection. It's still dependent on local conditions to provide the systems to take advantage with low shear. CCKW can give them a boost to help maintain convective thunderstorms and a more moist environment.

[RL3AO]

I dont know how to read these kelvin wave maps...but to me it looks like the majority of the dark blue favorable conditions are over the EPAC. So how can that help the ATL??


Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk

There are two things shown on the map. The color filled part of the maps are the total VP at 200. The contours are the VP just caused by the Kelvin wave. Since his graphic shows week 1 and week 2, the Kelvin wave has moved into Africa/Indian Ocean by week two. Here's another map where the images are three days apart. It's easier to track the movement of the CCKW.

[srainhoutx]

 https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/890528929924214784

I dont know how to read these kelvin wave maps...but to me it looks like the majority of the dark blue favorable conditions are over the EPAC. So how can that help the ATL??


Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk

The "white" circle you see over Central America is about 3.5 sigma above average for a CCKW which is unusually strong. I have been watching the progression of this CCKW since mid July and every day we see a stronger signal as the Kelvin Wave moves into the North Atlantic Basin. I believe by August 10th, +/- a couple of days, we will see potential TC Genesis activity increase. We also see a large and growing area of subsidence in the Indian Ocean with the most favored areas for Tropical Development shifting to the Western Pacific and Atlantic Basin. There is some potential that we may see a double shot, if you will for a favorable period that is conducive for Tropical Development near the 1st of September.