#932 Postby Dylan » Wed Jul 26, 2017 10:01 pm
Steve wrote:tolakram wrote:tarheelprogrammer wrote:
I posted a similar map last season around this same time, and oddly it is still valid. It is weird that no METs have a sound reasoning or consensus as to why the last 11 closing in on 12 years has seen this drought. The longest on record before this time was 5 years I believe. We are getting close to that figure being triple that now. Any METs on here have theories? I have read into conspiracy theories, but is there any sound reason for a streak to last this long? That is a large coastline, and it would seem a least a couple would slip through the cracks to hit the US by now.
It's a statistical blip, it happens, just like flipping a coin and getting heads 20 times in a row. 2004 and 2005 combined had 7 major hurricane hits so if you're a "law of averages" person this is nothing unusual. Both nonsense, of course, but if you're going to even mention conspiracy theories ... magnets.
As far as that older thread ... Steve. haha. We've been through 2005 now and I think expectations have been set even higher than before.
Yeah. That year was insane for obvious reasons. We had Cindy come through. Then there was Dennis which hit around Santa Rosa County/Navarre area. I was out in Lake Pontchartrain on a sailboat (moored), and it was tropical storm conditions on the lake side of the levee all day long (inside the levees, it was barely 15mph winds. Then there was Katrina which I had to leave town for at the last minute. Then there was Rita which hit Lake Charles and Cameron (and East Texas) while I was in Dauphin Island, Alabama. They closed the bridge the morning it passed by because of rocks and waves. So I just stayed home from work for a couple of days. 2002 was another year with a bunch of action for me. I think I remembered rain from 6 or 7 named storms that year though only Isidore and Lili had any real impact. Speaking of Joe B in the 2004 thread, he had a video up this morning with an Eric Blake tweet which drew a triangle off the Mexican Riviera showing water temperature parallels between 1991 and 1992 and 2016-2017 off the Mexican Coast. Water temperature profiles in those years (presumably blended) and 2016 and 2017 have resulted in the fastest stating EPAC July ACE.
Cindy caught everyone by surprise in New Orleans. I remember being in Lafayette for the 4th and first hearing about Cindy, but it was forecasted to go west. The next day the forecast shifted east towards NOLA, and it rained my whole ride back to town. The wind really picked up that night, and the gusts to 60-70mph were wicked. Neighbors didn't have power for a couple of days. There is just something different about a tropical system when it makes landfall strengthening VS weakening.
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Georges('98), Allison('01), Isidore('02), Lili('02), Frances('04) Ivan('04), Cindy('05), Katrina('05), Rita('05), Gustav('08), Isaac('12), Matthew('16), Harvey('17), Irma('17), Nate ('17), Ida ('21).