2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[OuterBanker]

http://www.weathernerds.org/models/gfs.html
Indeed


https://s3.postimg.org/bv03781ib/Selection_194.png

LOL, right.
With any luck Hatteras and Ocracoke islands will have their power back by then.

[Hammy]

GFS almost seems to indicate that tropical waves cease to exit Africa after about five days.

[Kingarabian]

06z has some struggling system maybe a TS in the GOM in the long range.

[jlauderdal]

06z has some struggling system maybe a TS in the GOM in the long range.

anything before the 15th is unlikely, too much working against it until at least the 15th...

then a big ramp up and you folks can all have sleepy eyes

[cycloneye]

@BigJoeBastardi
euro cyclones... most impressed I have seen this many members, though still small, on sub 980 mb features near US
usually its the GEFS

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/891313406178988032

[Emmett_Brown]

In the near term, 12z GFS closes off a 1009 mb low at the end of the front in the NE GOM by hour 36. Might need to watch that...

[Macrocane]

Does anyone know why the FIM has not been running since July 19?

[stormhunter7]

Seems we need to watch NE GOM.. probably gonna get a TS in next 2 days, according to some models.

[tarheelprogrammer]

A whole lot of red out there.

[tropicwatch]

Seems we need to watch NE GOM.. probably gonna get a TS in next 2 days, according to some models.

A thread has been started for that: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=118902

[cycloneye]

12z ECMWF at the end of run has this.

[Alyono]

GFS has an el niño ish pattern with persistent westerly shear in the Caribbean. It also has very weak waves in the Atlantic.

Basically, it is saying "what Kelvin Wave?"

[Kingarabian]

GFS has an el niño ish pattern with persistent westerly shear in the Caribbean. It also has very weak waves in the Atlantic.

Basically, it is saying "what Kelvin Wave?"

I think it's hard to predict what a Kelvin Wave might do. A suppressed one might pass by yet you see increased development. A conducive one may pass by and nothing materializes.

[AtlanticWind]

GFS has an el niño ish pattern with persistent westerly shear in the Caribbean. It also has very weak waves in the Atlantic.

Basically, it is saying "what Kelvin Wave?"

Maybe this is first real test of new GFS.
See what value it has in tropical genesis.

[Alyono]

GFS has an el niño ish pattern with persistent westerly shear in the Caribbean. It also has very weak waves in the Atlantic.

Basically, it is saying "what Kelvin Wave?"

I think it's hard to predict what a Kelvin Wave might do. A suppressed one might pass by yet you see increased development. A conducive one may pass by and nothing materializes.

I wonder if a Kelvin Wave even aids in genesis as that is more governed by local scale features. I can see a Kelvin Wave ENHANCING a DEVELOPED TC, though by creating conditions that are slightly more favorable

[Kingarabian]

GFS has an el niño ish pattern with persistent westerly shear in the Caribbean. It also has very weak waves in the Atlantic.

Basically, it is saying "what Kelvin Wave?"

I think it's hard to predict what a Kelvin Wave might do. A suppressed one might pass by yet you see increased development. A conducive one may pass by and nothing materializes.

I wonder if a Kelvin Wave even aids in genesis as that is more governed by local scale features. I can see a Kelvin Wave ENHANCING a DEVELOPED TC, though by creating conditions that are slightly more favorable

That's what I'm wondering. Maybe it's luck that sometimes suppressed and conducive Kelvin Waves increase or decrease TC development. A disturbance with a decent moisture envelope, sufficiently warm SST's, and a conducive upper level environment is going to almost always develop. And exactly how many of the monster tropical cyclones this generation has seen were induced by a Kelvin Wave?

[RL3AO]

That's what I'm wondering. Maybe it's luck that sometimes suppressed and conducive Kelvin Waves increase or decrease TC development. A disturbance with a decent moisture envelope, sufficiently warm SST's, and a conducive upper level environment is going to almost always develop. And exactly how many of the monster tropical cyclones this generation has seen were induced by a Kelvin Wave?

The research is out there. There is an increase in TC genesis frequency in the Atlantic MDR about two days after a CCKW passes by. No one is saying "CCKW = TC Genesis", but it appears to make some impact.



Feel free to read more about it.

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/MWR-D-11-00305.1
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/MWR-D-15-0111.1

[Kingarabian]

That's what I'm wondering. Maybe it's luck that sometimes suppressed and conducive Kelvin Waves increase or decrease TC development. A disturbance with a decent moisture envelope, sufficiently warm SST's, and a conducive upper level environment is going to almost always develop. And exactly how many of the monster tropical cyclones this generation has seen were induced by a Kelvin Wave?

The research is out there. There is an increase in TC genesis frequency in the Atlantic MDR about two days after a CCKW passes by. No one is saying "CCKW = TC Genesis", but it appears to make some impact.

[mg]https://i.imgur.com/4GiUSnr.png[/img]

Feel free to read more about it.

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/MWR-D-11-00305.1
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/MWR-D-15-0111.1

Good points. Maybe it's just the models modeling the Kelvin Wave incorrectly. But Mike Ventrice (all due respect to him and his research of course) is using terms such as "TC outbreak soon" "Will jumpstart the Atlantic hurricane season" - which might give users the wrong idea in that Kelvin Wave's guarantee TC's.

[RL3AO]

Good points. Maybe it's just the models modeling the Kelvin Wave incorrectly. But Mike Ventrice (all due respect to him and his research of course) is using terms such as "TC outbreak soon" "Will jumpstart the Atlantic hurricane season".

I guess we'll just have to wait until August 31st and see what happened.

[TheStormExpert]

Well one thing is for sure, I have not been all that impressed with the GFS and Euro since the upgrade or even since the season started for that matter. So it very well may be the models doing poorly.