2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
OuterBanker
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1731
Joined: Wed Feb 26, 2003 10:53 am
Location: Nags Head, NC
Contact:

Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#921 Postby OuterBanker » Fri Jul 28, 2017 10:38 pm

Digital-TC-Chaser wrote:http://www.weathernerds.org/models/gfs.html
Indeed


https://s3.postimg.org/bv03781ib/Selection_194.png


LOL, right.
With any luck Hatteras and Ocracoke islands will have their power back by then.
1 likes   

User avatar
Hammy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5849
Age: 41
Joined: Fri May 25, 2012 5:25 pm
Contact:

Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#922 Postby Hammy » Sat Jul 29, 2017 4:23 am

GFS almost seems to indicate that tropical waves cease to exit Africa after about five days.
1 likes   
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15981
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#923 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Jul 29, 2017 6:13 am

06z has some struggling system maybe a TS in the GOM in the long range.
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

jlauderdal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 7183
Joined: Wed May 19, 2004 5:46 am
Location: NE Fort Lauderdale
Contact:

Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#924 Postby jlauderdal » Sat Jul 29, 2017 9:13 am

Kingarabian wrote:06z has some struggling system maybe a TS in the GOM in the long range.

anything before the 15th is unlikely, too much working against it until at least the 15th... :wink:

then a big ramp up and you folks can all have sleepy eyes 8-)
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145327
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#925 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 29, 2017 10:29 am

@BigJoeBastardi
euro cyclones... most impressed I have seen this many members, though still small, on sub 980 mb features near US
usually its the GEFS


 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/891313406178988032


0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Emmett_Brown
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1432
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 9:10 pm
Location: Sarasota FL

Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#926 Postby Emmett_Brown » Sat Jul 29, 2017 11:01 am

In the near term, 12z GFS closes off a 1009 mb low at the end of the front in the NE GOM by hour 36. Might need to watch that...
0 likes   

User avatar
Macrocane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4218
Age: 36
Joined: Sun May 24, 2009 5:35 pm
Location: El Salvador

Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#927 Postby Macrocane » Sat Jul 29, 2017 1:15 pm

Does anyone know why the FIM has not been running since July 19?
0 likes   

User avatar
stormhunter7
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 762
Joined: Mon May 26, 2008 3:13 pm
Location: Panama City Beach, Florida
Contact:

Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#928 Postby stormhunter7 » Sat Jul 29, 2017 1:16 pm

Seems we need to watch NE GOM.. probably gonna get a TS in next 2 days, according to some models.
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov

User avatar
tarheelprogrammer
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1793
Joined: Mon Mar 28, 2016 9:25 pm
Location: Raleigh, NC area (Garner, NC)

Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#929 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Sat Jul 29, 2017 1:27 pm

A whole lot of red out there.

Image
0 likes   
My posts are not official forecasts. They are just my opinion and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
tropicwatch
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3384
Age: 61
Joined: Sat Jun 02, 2007 10:01 am
Location: Panama City Florida
Contact:

Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#930 Postby tropicwatch » Sat Jul 29, 2017 1:31 pm

stormhunter7 wrote:Seems we need to watch NE GOM.. probably gonna get a TS in next 2 days, according to some models.


A thread has been started for that: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=118902
0 likes   
Tropicwatch


Agnes 72', Eloise 75, Elena 85', Kate 85', Charley 86', Florence 88', Beryl 94', Dean 95', Erin 95', Opal 95', Earl 98', Georges 98', Ivan 2004', Arlene 2005', Dennis 2005', Ida 2009' Debby 2012' Irma 2017' Michael 2018'

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145327
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#931 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 29, 2017 2:21 pm

12z ECMWF at the end of run has this.

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

Alyono
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 6961
Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:52 pm
Location: Texas Coast

Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#932 Postby Alyono » Sat Jul 29, 2017 5:48 pm

GFS has an el niño ish pattern with persistent westerly shear in the Caribbean. It also has very weak waves in the Atlantic.

Basically, it is saying "what Kelvin Wave?"
3 likes   

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15981
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#933 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Jul 29, 2017 5:53 pm

Alyono wrote:GFS has an el niño ish pattern with persistent westerly shear in the Caribbean. It also has very weak waves in the Atlantic.

Basically, it is saying "what Kelvin Wave?"


I think it's hard to predict what a Kelvin Wave might do. A suppressed one might pass by yet you see increased development. A conducive one may pass by and nothing materializes.
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

User avatar
AtlanticWind
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1889
Age: 66
Joined: Sun Aug 08, 2004 9:57 pm
Location: Plantation,Fla

Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#934 Postby AtlanticWind » Sat Jul 29, 2017 5:54 pm

Alyono wrote:GFS has an el niño ish pattern with persistent westerly shear in the Caribbean. It also has very weak waves in the Atlantic.

Basically, it is saying "what Kelvin Wave?"

Maybe this is first real test of new GFS.
See what value it has in tropical genesis.
0 likes   

Alyono
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 6961
Joined: Fri Apr 26, 2013 3:52 pm
Location: Texas Coast

Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#935 Postby Alyono » Sat Jul 29, 2017 5:57 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
Alyono wrote:GFS has an el niño ish pattern with persistent westerly shear in the Caribbean. It also has very weak waves in the Atlantic.

Basically, it is saying "what Kelvin Wave?"


I think it's hard to predict what a Kelvin Wave might do. A suppressed one might pass by yet you see increased development. A conducive one may pass by and nothing materializes.


I wonder if a Kelvin Wave even aids in genesis as that is more governed by local scale features. I can see a Kelvin Wave ENHANCING a DEVELOPED TC, though by creating conditions that are slightly more favorable
0 likes   

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15981
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#936 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Jul 29, 2017 6:06 pm

Alyono wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
Alyono wrote:GFS has an el niño ish pattern with persistent westerly shear in the Caribbean. It also has very weak waves in the Atlantic.

Basically, it is saying "what Kelvin Wave?"


I think it's hard to predict what a Kelvin Wave might do. A suppressed one might pass by yet you see increased development. A conducive one may pass by and nothing materializes.


I wonder if a Kelvin Wave even aids in genesis as that is more governed by local scale features. I can see a Kelvin Wave ENHANCING a DEVELOPED TC, though by creating conditions that are slightly more favorable


That's what I'm wondering. Maybe it's luck that sometimes suppressed and conducive Kelvin Waves increase or decrease TC development. A disturbance with a decent moisture envelope, sufficiently warm SST's, and a conducive upper level environment is going to almost always develop. And exactly how many of the monster tropical cyclones this generation has seen were induced by a Kelvin Wave?
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

RL3AO
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 16308
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:03 pm
Location: NC

Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#937 Postby RL3AO » Sat Jul 29, 2017 6:18 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
That's what I'm wondering. Maybe it's luck that sometimes suppressed and conducive Kelvin Waves increase or decrease TC development. A disturbance with a decent moisture envelope, sufficiently warm SST's, and a conducive upper level environment is going to almost always develop. And exactly how many of the monster tropical cyclones this generation has seen were induced by a Kelvin Wave?


The research is out there. There is an increase in TC genesis frequency in the Atlantic MDR about two days after a CCKW passes by. No one is saying "CCKW = TC Genesis", but it appears to make some impact.

Image

Feel free to read more about it.

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/MWR-D-11-00305.1
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/MWR-D-15-0111.1
3 likes   

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15981
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#938 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Jul 29, 2017 6:39 pm

RL3AO wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
That's what I'm wondering. Maybe it's luck that sometimes suppressed and conducive Kelvin Waves increase or decrease TC development. A disturbance with a decent moisture envelope, sufficiently warm SST's, and a conducive upper level environment is going to almost always develop. And exactly how many of the monster tropical cyclones this generation has seen were induced by a Kelvin Wave?


The research is out there. There is an increase in TC genesis frequency in the Atlantic MDR about two days after a CCKW passes by. No one is saying "CCKW = TC Genesis", but it appears to make some impact.

[mg]https://i.imgur.com/4GiUSnr.png[/img]

Feel free to read more about it.

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/MWR-D-11-00305.1
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/MWR-D-15-0111.1


Good points. Maybe it's just the models modeling the Kelvin Wave incorrectly. But Mike Ventrice (all due respect to him and his research of course) is using terms such as "TC outbreak soon" "Will jumpstart the Atlantic hurricane season" - which might give users the wrong idea in that Kelvin Wave's guarantee TC's.
1 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

RL3AO
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 16308
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:03 pm
Location: NC

Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#939 Postby RL3AO » Sat Jul 29, 2017 6:41 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Good points. Maybe it's just the models modeling the Kelvin Wave incorrectly. But Mike Ventrice (all due respect to him and his research of course) is using terms such as "TC outbreak soon" "Will jumpstart the Atlantic hurricane season".


I guess we'll just have to wait until August 31st and see what happened.
4 likes   

TheStormExpert

Re: 2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

#940 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Jul 29, 2017 7:17 pm

Well one thing is for sure, I have not been all that impressed with the GFS and Euro since the upgrade or even since the season started for that matter. So it very well may be the models doing poorly.
1 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Blown Away and 31 guests