ATL: TEN - Models

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#381 Postby Blown Away » Thu Aug 17, 2017 10:44 am

SouthFLTropics wrote:I think the proximity of PTC 9 may be an issue in the early going. WXMAN mentioned this possibility on the discussion board.


PTC 9 not much better organization, per GFS, early going...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#382 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 17, 2017 10:46 am

60 Hours

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#383 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 17, 2017 10:49 am

72 Hours...Not much change from 06z

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#384 Postby gatorcane » Thu Aug 17, 2017 10:51 am

Despite having a small upper anticyclone over 92L and a larger one over 91L, GFS refuses to show development of both.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#385 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 17, 2017 10:53 am

84 Hours...Just a gnats hair south of the 06z position

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#386 Postby Blown Away » Thu Aug 17, 2017 10:54 am

12z GFS... Still TW through 84 hrs... Moisture envelope a little bigger than previous runs...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#387 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Thu Aug 17, 2017 10:55 am

The GFS does not like the North Atlantic this season...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#388 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 17, 2017 10:58 am

96 Hours...No love for 92L :sadly:

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#389 Postby sma10 » Thu Aug 17, 2017 10:59 am

Quite comical actually - thru 96hrs, GFS says 91L, 92L and future 93L is a whole bunch of nothing. Looks like the NHC forecasters may have to go old school the next few days and nowcast with their eyes.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#390 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Thu Aug 17, 2017 11:00 am

sma10 wrote:Quite comical actually - thru 96hrs, GFS says 91L, 92L and future 93L is a whole bunch of nothing. Looks like the NHC forecasters may have to go old school the next few days and nowcast with their eyes.

This is the same model that did not develop Gert and then realized it was there about a day after it formed.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#391 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Aug 17, 2017 11:00 am

SouthFLTropics wrote:96 Hours...No love for 92L :sadly:

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Every other model is on board so it's probably something wrong in the GFS programming
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#392 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 17, 2017 11:02 am

108 Hours...And also notice that future 93L sparks to life

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#393 Postby WeatherEmperor » Thu Aug 17, 2017 11:02 am

Hurricaneman wrote:
SouthFLTropics wrote:96 Hours...No love for 92L :sadly:

Image

Every other model is on board so it's probably something wrong in the GFS programming


The Navgem also show very little development so the GFS is not alone in what it shows


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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#394 Postby Blown Away » Thu Aug 17, 2017 11:02 am

12z GFS... TW approaching SFL @114 hrs... Maybe a tad slower and S of 06z... Track is towards SFL, but fortunately intensity is a nice TW moving through... 8-)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#395 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 17, 2017 11:04 am

120 Hours...South Florida Landfall...of a Tropical Wave :bored:

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#396 Postby Steve » Thu Aug 17, 2017 11:05 am

gatorcane wrote:Despite having a small upper anticyclone over 92L and a larger one over 91L, GFS refuses to show development of both.



GFS has the Upper Level Low deep into the Gulf backing W to the TX Coast ahead of 91L (and 92L). Pattern reversal is on the table there as it has a strong high coming down off the SE Coast and creating a block situation for 92L. It doesn't show development through 120 hours, but that's an interesting setup regardless of the proximity to 91L.

250-850mb wind shear with low centers:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=604
Last edited by Steve on Thu Aug 17, 2017 11:08 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#397 Postby adam0983 » Thu Aug 17, 2017 11:07 am

Good keep it weak no one needs this storm. Just an opinion not a forecast.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#398 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 17, 2017 11:07 am

132 Hours

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#399 Postby Steve » Thu Aug 17, 2017 11:09 am

SouthFLTropics wrote:132 Hours

Image


That's astonishing. I'll bet anyone a $100.00 site donation that there is more activity at 132 hours than the GFS is leading on. Anybody.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#400 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 17, 2017 11:11 am

Steve wrote:
SouthFLTropics wrote:132 Hours

Image


That's astonishing. I'll bet anyone a $100.00 site donation that there is more activity at 132 hours than the GFS is leading on. Anybody.


I'm not taking that bet...not after seeing the cyclogenesis performance of the models on Gert.
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